Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC White House
Ilia Topuria’s bid for double-champ status and Alex Pereira’s push for a third UFC division headline an utterly surreal, history-making night on the South Lawn.
Topuria-Gaethje for the undisputed lightweight strap feels like a car crash between momentum and scar tissue. Topuria brings the sharper defensive reads and multi-layered counter game, but Justin Gaethje’s calf kicks and willingness to walk through hell are tailor-made to test the champ’s composure in deep waters. If Topuria keeps his jab working and punishes entries with level-change threats, he can bank early control; if he indulges in a brawl, Gaethje’s attritional damage turns this into a live underdog spot.
Pereira jumping to heavyweight against Ciryl Gane is the classic question: can one clean, nuclear touch beat 25 minutes of footwork and volume. Gane owns the speed and movement edge, but every reset keeps him one misread away from disaster against Pereira’s cage-cutting and left hook.
Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi, Michael Chandler–Mauricio Ruffy, Bo Nickal–Kyle Daukaus, Josh Hokit–Derrick Lewis, and Diego Lopes–Steve Garcia round out a compact, action-friendly slate that should play perfectly to a mainstream TV audience on the most politicized canvas MMA has ever seen.
Ilia Topuria (C) vs. Justin Gaethje (IC)
HayJive – Ilia Topuria
- “lia Topuria feels like the clear side here. Gaethje remains dangerous, but he’s far too hittable against a striker as sharp and precise as Topuria. Add in the grappling upside, and Topuria has multiple paths to victory. I expect him to find an early finish in the main event.”
Nolan – Ilia Topuria
- “Topuria is much faster, hits harder, and is catching Justin at the right time.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Ilia Topuria
- “Everyone is expecting a quick KO which is possible, but I can sense a scenario where Topuria aims for a submission considering we have seen Gaethje open for that.”
The Fight Analyst – Ilia Topuria
- “While many expect an early knockout from Topuria, I expect this to extend a bit, but ultimately he will crack Gaethje’s chin, putting him away, and defend his lightweight title for the first time.”
Austin Swaim – Ilia Topuria
- “I think Ilia’s lack of size is being a little underrated by betting markets when it comes to wiping out a historically durable Gaethje, but he will land clean at distance and has elite submission danger in his back pocket. Topuria losing this fight would be flatly stunning.”
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
HayJive – Alex Pereira
- “Ciryl Gane’s movement and footwork could create problems early, but I expect Pereira’s calf kicks to gradually slow him down. As the fight extends, Pereira’s boxing and power should become more effective. Once Gane starts spending more time in range, Pereira can take over and potentially find a late finish.”
Nolan – Ciryl Gane
- “Gane is an athletic heavyweight who is used to fighting at this weight class. This will be a close one.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Alex Pereira
- “Pereira will cut the range, use his calf kicks to hinder movement and we have seen Gane’s chin up in the air. Unsure how good Gane’s IQ will be to grapple here.”
The Fight Analyst – Ciryl Gane
- “This is the closest fight on the card and for good reason. Both of these heavyweights are high-level strikers, but it’s going to be the speed and size of Gane that’s going to make the jump to heavyweight a problem for Pereira. As long as Gane can deal with the leg kicks early, he should be able to stick and move and take the decision at the White House.”
Austin Swaim – Ciryl Gane
- “The outcome here will depend on how much Pereira’s power translates at heavyweight. Without weight cuts and facing a durable guy with elite footwork, I just don’t think it will. I expect Gane to outpoint the superstar, and the Frenchman has conceivable wrestling upside here, too.”
Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
HayJive – Sean O’Malley
- “O’Malley should have a significant edge on the feet. Zahabi’s best path would likely involve grappling, but he hasn’t consistently shown that level of offensive wrestling. If this remains a striking battle, O’Malley’s speed, range, and accuracy should carry him to a comfortable win.”
Nolan – Sean O’Malley
- “Sean is the more athletic fighter here. Hes a better striker, can keep it standing, and will land more damage.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Sean O’Malley
- “Another big skill discrepancy. Zahabi doesn’t belong in the ranks but has found a way to slime his way in there with a series of questionable decisions.”
The Fight Analyst – Sean O’Malley
- “I expect this fight to be relatively close, but O’Malley will be the one having the bigger moments, ultimately getting the win on the White House South Lawn over Zahabi.”
Austin Swaim – Sean O’Malley
- “Historically, Zahabi is a grinder who doesn’t let opponents get comfortable, but his level of competition has been poor, and all of his recent foes have been particularly slow. I think O’Malley rolls downhill in his first fight since Munhoz without a legitimate wrestling threat coming back his way.”
Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
HayJive – Josh Hokit
- “Derrick Lewis is always dangerous early, but I think Josh Hokit’s pace becomes a major factor as the fight progresses. If Hokit can avoid the early power, his wrestling, pressure, and chain grappling should start to wear Lewis down and take over the fight.”
Nolan – Josh Hokit
- “Hokit should be too much for Lewis and the weather could play a huge factor in Lewis starting to wear down.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Josh Hokit
- “Lewis seems out of it and Hokit is hungry, more athletic and has the grappling advantage when he needs to.”
The Fight Analyst – Josh Hokit
- “Josh Hokit is going to bring out his collegiate wrestling background for this fight against Lewis punishing him on the mat and getting him out of there inside two rounds.”
Austin Swaim – Josh Hokit
- “Derrick Lewis embodies a puncher’s chance, but he’s an extremely poor athlete in what is expected to be significant heat and humidity, and Hokit showed great durability against Curtis Blaydes. One takedown could be the fight the way this monsoon tends to build.”
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
HayJive – Mauricio Ruffy
- “Michael Chandler has a wrestling path, but he rarely commits to it consistently. That’s a problem against a fighter as long, fast, and sharp as Mauricio Ruffy. At this stage of their careers, Ruffy looks like the cleaner striker and the more dangerous finisher. I like him to get it done, likely by knockout.”
Nolan – Mauricio Ruffy
- “Ruffy has too many weapons on the feet. Chandler needs to wrestle for a chance to win but has never really shown that game plan.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Mauricio Ruffy
- “Chandler is just a stationary target, Ruffy is accurate, won’t overthink it.”
The Fight Analyst – Mauricio Ruffy
- “Ruffy will be too technical and defensively sound for Chandler land his big looping shots. Ruffy should be able to outclass Chandler on the feet until Ruffy finds the finish.”
Austin Swaim – Michael Chandler
- “Between individual UFC results, the “Fighting Nerds” divorce, and regional chin problems, I still just don’t trust Mauricio Ruffy at a top-shelf level of competition. Chandler is a great athlete with plenty of individual tools to pull an upset — especially if he stays disciplined to his wrestling base in this matchup.”
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
HayJive – Bo Nickal
- “Bo Nickal is still improving and remains the superior athlete in this matchup. Daukaus is a capable grappler, but it’s hard to see him having a wrestling advantage here. If the fight stays standing, I trust Nickal’s athleticism and development, and if he wants to wrestle, he has that option as well.”
Nolan – Bo Nickal
- “This fight should be close, but between these two I believe Bo is the one getting better and better between fights. He most likely learned from his only loss and is ready to make a statement again.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Bo Nickal
- “Again, grappling advantage for Nickal and I still think this is a buy low spot compared to where we’ve seen Bo before.”
The Fight Analyst – Bo Nickal
- “While Daukaus is a respectable opponent, Nickal’s forward pressure and wrestling will be too much and the deciding factor as he outworks Daukaus en route to a decision victory..”
Austin Swaim – Kyle Daukaus
- “A bet in this fight could be just a statement about how you feel about Kyle Daukaus relative to Reiner de Ridder. I think Daukaus is a better striker with a better gas tank, and Nickal still lacks a quality win on his resume. I actually see this fight being very competitive in all phases.”
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
HayJive – Diego Lopes
- “I’ll take Diego Lopes here. Garcia has a path if he can stay disciplined, avoid brawls, and use his striking to outpoint Lopes over three rounds. The problem is that Lopes is dangerous everywhere, and I’m not convinced Garcia can avoid those high-risk exchanges for an entire fight. Lopes has more ways to win and should be able to capitalize when the action gets chaotic.”
Nolan – Steve Garcia
- “Garcia is being underrated here when in reality he’s got very sharp striking, power, and good range management. I think this is way closer that people think, so give me the dog.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Diego Lopes
- “I think he’s more skilled than Garcia and has the chin and power to exchange in the pocket. “
The Fight Analyst – Steve Garcia
- “Garcia is on a seven-fight winning streak with six of those wins coming by knockout. He gets his stiffest competitor to date but one in Lopes who’s willing to engage with him and with Lopes’ disastrous defense, there is a good chance Garcia clips Lopes, extends his winning streak to eight in a row, and gets inside the top 5 of the rankings.”
Austin Swaim – Steve Garcia
- “Death, taxes, and “Mean Machine” being undervalued because of previous shortcomings at lightweight. He’s an undefeated monster at featherweight, and Diego Lopes’ 45% striking defense is a major hole against such a good boxer. I see the Brazilian as submission-or-bust, but he’s never been much of a wrestling threat.”
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