Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 119
After a historic card at The White House, the world’s combat leader returns to normal at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas.
A flyweight title eliminator — and rematch — is this week’s five-round main event as Angolan slugger Manel Kape battles Japanese technician Kyoji Horiguchi, who defeated Kape in 2017.
We’ll also see if Navajo Stirling can avoid a “fraud check” in the co-main event against all-action brawler Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba.
Featherweights make up the rest of the main card. “Hurricane” Hyder Amil will look to get off the schneid against durable grinder Christian Rodriguez, Murtazali Magomedov makes his debut from the Contender Series against Armenia’s Melsik Baghdasaryan, and Andre “Touchy” Fili welcomes Vinicius Oliveira to the 145-pound ranks following the Brazilian’s first UFC loss.
Who do our experts like to get their hands raised in these matchups?
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
HayJive – Manel Kape
- “I’ll take Manel Kape in the main event. Kyoji Horiguchi’s movement, outside footwork, and karate-based style could create some challenges early, but the smaller cage should help Kape cut off the octagon and force more exchanges. Over 25 minutes, I trust Kape’s speed, power, and overall striking more. He also appears to have improved significantly since their first meeting, making this a strong spot for him to get the win.”
Nolan – Manel Kape
- “This will be a close fight for a while, and even though Kyoji has beaten Kape once, I believe it’s Kape’s time for revenge. Kape is getting better and better each fight, and I think the power and damage will be the difference.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Manel Kape
- “I think that damage is going to be the differential here. Kape has evolved more, has a speed and power advantage against a durable Horiguchi.”
The Fight Analyst – Kyoji Horiguchi
- “Horiguchi just ages like fine wine, and it hasn’t looked like he’s lost a step even since he left the UFC that many years ago. Kape is going to be dangerous, but if Horiguchi can avoid the big punch, he should be able to outwork him over the course of the fight.”
Austin Swaim – Kyoji Horiguchi
- “Though at a major hardware deficit, Kyoji Horiguchi’s speed, defensive fundamentals, and ability to mix it up are elite. Kape has had a run of favorable matchups against guys with durability issues, so the American Top Team product is a major step up.”
Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling
HayJive – Navajo Stirling
- “I’ll take Navajo Sterling here. Cutelaba could give him some tough looks early, but Sterling is the much better minute-winner and should be able to weather the early storm. If he does, I expect him to take over as the fight progresses and either find a late finish or win a decision.”
Nolan – Navajo Stirling
- “I’m hesitant here, but I do believe Navajo’s reach, jab, and knees up the middle will serve him well against a more wild guy like Ion. I think Navajo has the takedown defense to keep it on the feet where he wants the fight.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Navajo Stirling
- “I think Stirling is calculated and more well rounded that Cutelaba, and can find certain entries that will allow him to finish that fight.”
The Fight Analyst – Navajo Stirling
- “Stirling is just on a roll right now. His striking is crisp, and if he can avoid the takedowns of Cutelaba, he should style on him — potentially putting him away before the final bell.”
Austin Swaim – Navajo Stirling
- “I do think Ion Cutelaba has improved a great deal at Xtreme Couture, but his length deficit will be a challenging obstacle in a longer fight, and I trust Stirling’s power/durability combination if this were to devolve into a patented “Hulk” brawl.”
Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez
HayJive – Hyder Amil
- “I’ll take the underdog in Hyder Amil. He can compete wherever this fight goes and hold his own in both striking and grappling. His pace, pressure, and output are all major weapons, and if he’s fully healthy, I think he can outwork Rodriguez over three rounds.”
Nolan – Christian Rodriguez
- “Christian thrives against explosive fighters who burn hot early. He knows how to weather the storms, pick his shots, and take over after the first, which I see happening here.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Hyder Amil
- “The physicality from Amil will be the main difference maker in this bout, having the ability to be in a messy fight style that C-Rod likes.”
The Fight Analyst – Hyder Amil
- “Christian Rodriguez has youth on his side, but Hyder Amil fights like a young 38 years old. His pace and pressure will wear Rodriguez down over time and potentially get him out of there late.”
Austin Swaim – Hyder Amil
- “Christian Rodriguez not facing an overhyped prospect in their early 20s? Easy fade. Jokes aside, C-Rod’s inability to land powerful strikes leaves him with decision upside on the basis of the 15 minutes of control, and Amil has shown the ability to really build as the fight progresses outside of his last bout, which had documented health issues.”
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov
HayJive – Murtazali Magomedov
- “Magomedov may be a bit overpriced, but I still lean his way. If he commits to grappling, he should have a clear advantage and potentially find a submission. Baghdasaryan is the cleaner striker, which keeps him dangerous, but the overall matchup favors Magomedov.”
Nolan – Murtazali Magomedov
- “I think Magomedov has too many ways to win against Melsik. Melsik needs a clean kickboxing style fight, and that’s not what Magomedov will give him at all.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Murtazali Magomedov
- “He will have a submission advantage over Melsik, who hasn’t been active and is vulnerable to submissions.”
The Fight Analyst – Murtazali Magomedov
- “While Baghdasaryan is an elite striker, his grappling still hasn’t quite caught up to his striking after all these years. That’s where Magomedov will have a huge advantage. He will get the submission finish inside two rounds.”
Austin Swaim – Murtazali Magomedov
- “Melsik Baghdasaryan’s level of competition holds no weight in modern UFC. He looked frail and fragile opposite Jean Silva. Oh yeah, he has also been submitted easily in any sort of grappling exchange. Murtazali Magomedov got a soft landing spot as one of last season’s brightest stars on the Contender Series.”
Vinicius Oliveira vs. Andre Fili
HayJive – Andre Fili
- “I’ll take a shot on Andre Fili as the underdog. I’m not sold on Oliveira’s move to 145 pounds, especially since his size was such a big advantage at bantamweight. Fili is a large featherweight, has cleaner striking and can mix in wrestling if needed. I think he has more paths to victory than the odds suggest.”
Nolan – Vinicius Oliveira
- “Oliveira is finally fighting in the correct weight class, where he won’t have to die making weight. I think this is the buy-low spot of the week.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Vinicius Oliveira
- “Perfect fight for Oliveira to move up to style using his striking, with a smoother weight cut as he moves up.”
The Fight Analyst – Vinicius Oliveira
- “Oliveira finally makes the move up to 145 after draining his body to make 135. He gets a willing dance partner in Fili, who will go to war with him. However, Oliveira has big power and when he lands on Fili, he will put him away and make a statement in his featherweight debut.”
Austin Swaim – Vinicius Oliveira
- “A disastrous weight cut seems plausible when you consider how badly Oliveira’s performance dropped from Kyler Phillips to Mario Bautista. Fili is a cagey veteran that could drag this to a competitive decision, but the younger Brazilian’s finishing upside, speed, and athleticism are huge marks in his favor.”
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