Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Belgrade
The Octagon touches down at the Belgrade Arena this Saturday for UFC Belgrade, marking the promotion’s highly anticipated debut in Serbia. The 14-fight card is loaded with local talent, capped off by a dynamic welterweight main event between rising Serbian star Uros Medic and grizzled American veteran Daniel Rodriguez. Medic enters the hometown spotlight boasting serious momentum, aiming to cement his status against the durable striking of Rodriguez, making the exact method of victory an intriguing prop market for traders.
In the co-main event, former light heavyweight champion Jan Błachowicz faces late-replacement Navajo Stirling. With original opponent Bogdan Guskov re-booked to last week’s Abu Dhabi card, the undefeated Stirling steps in on short notice, offering a fascinating dynamic against the Polish powerhouse’s legendary striking and experience.
The main card also features heavyweight action as Aleksandar Rakic clashes with Marcin Tybura, alongside middleweight bouts pairing Dusko Todorovic against Robert Valentin, and Vlasto Cepo facing Gilbert Urbina.
As the UFC breaks new ground in Eastern Europe, prediction market traders should closely monitor the early line movement on these local favorites, identifying value in fights where hometown emotion might inflate the odds.
Who do our experts like to get their hands raised in these matchups?
Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez
HayJive – Uros Medic
- “I’ll take Uros Medic in the main event. Medic is an explosive, fast starter whose primary path to victory is finding the knockout, and I think this matchup suits him well. Rodriguez still has enough power to make things dangerous if he lands clean, but he’s looked noticeably slower in recent fights. I’ll side with the younger, faster, more active fighter competing in front of his home crowd and call for a first-round knockout from Medic.”
Nolan – Uros Medic
- “I don’t like the prison layoff for D-Rod. Medic is so explosive and dangerous, and I think he’s got all the confidence in the world here.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Uros Medic
- “Has the momentum, has a very stable object in front of him and the fact that D-Rod just got released from Mexican prison doesn’t help.”
The Fight Analyst – Uros Medic
- “Uros Medic is way too dangerous for a 38-year-old brawler like Daniel Rodriguez, who not too long ago was training in a Mexican prison for months.”
Austin Swaim – Daniel Rodriguez
- “I’m not buying an evolution in Uros Medic’s boom-or-bust style as much as a hot streak. It’s possible DRod’s aging chin doesn’t have one more ride, but I trust his work rate and defensive responsibility the longer this fight goes.”
Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling
HayJive – Navajo Stirling
- “I’ll take Navajo Stirling to remain undefeated. The 15-year age gap is difficult to ignore, even with Stirling taking this fight on short notice. He stays active, carries plenty of momentum, and has advantages in speed, volume, cardio, and overall athleticism. Blachowicz still has paths to a close decision, but I think Stirling is the better minute-winner and has far more finishing upside.”
Nolan – Navajo Stirling
- “The youth and speed is enough for me to pick Navajo here. We know what we’re getting with a 43 year old Jan, but Stirling should be improving between fights.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Jan Blachowicz
- “I do think this is the hardest test for Stirling and we’ve seen Blachowicz put even the highest levels of champions on their backfoots. I would be more confident if he weren’t returning from injury but it’s safe to say he’s not aging like most.”
The Fight Analyst – Navajo Stirling
- “Even though Navajo Stirling is stepping in on short notice, he couldn’t be fighting Jan Blachowicz at a better time. Stirling will be too fast and powerful for the 43-year-old Polish power puncher as he sends him into retirement this weekend.”
Austin Swaim – Navajo Stirling
- “According to the broadcast, Jan Blachowicz can’t lift weights due to his longtime shoulder issue. He had a meniscus tear in February. I think “Father Time” has come for the great champion, who faces a patient, technical, accurate, and hungry contender from New Zealand in Belgrade.”
Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic
HayJive – Aleksandar Rakic
- “I’ll take Aleksandar Rakic. I think moving up to heavyweight is a good career move for him, as he’ll still be one of the better athletes in the division. Tybura is now 40 years old, and when he isn’t finding wrestling success, he often struggles to dictate fights. With Rakic’s excellent takedown defense, I expect him to keep this standing, outstrike Tybura, and earn the decision.”
Nolan – Aleksandar Rakic
- “Rakic will be much more explosive, dangerous, and he’s moving up a weight class. I think the move up and the timing of fighting a 40 year old Tybura is perfect for him.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Aleksandar Rakic
- “He will have a massive speed advantage while still having the power, if not more and I can see him wanting to find his options.”
The Fight Analyst – Aleksandar Rakic
- “Aleksandar Rakic is searching for his first win since 2021, and he is moving up to heavyweight to do so. Luckily, he’s getting an aging Marcin Tybura in his heavyweight debut, someone he should be able to run circles around on the feet, and as long as he utilizes his speed and athleticism to keep off the mat, he punishes Tybura, potentially putting him away midway through the fight and getting back into the win column.”
Austin Swaim – Aleksandar Rakic
- “Rakic’s 0.82% knockdown rate wasn’t high at light heavyweight. I don’t think he’ll have elite power at heavyweight, either. You still have to comfortably favor his speed, athleticism, and boxing over Marcin Tybura, who’s been resigned to clinch grinds and slow kicks as he enters his 40s.”
Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin
HayJive – Dusko Todorovic
- “I’ll take Dusko Todorovic as the underdog. I view this as a very competitive fight, but Valentin has looked inconsistent to me. Todorovic may not be the fastest fighter, but he’s durable, fights with a ton of heart, and isn’t easy to finish. If he survives the early danger, I think he can take over with his pace, and I could also see him mixing in takedowns and controlling stretches on the ground.”
Nolan – Dusko Todorovic
- “Dusko is fighting at home, has the better jiu jitsu, and is probably the better striker as well. I think this is his best chance at another UFC win.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Magomed Zaynukov
- “Despite some bad luck in his early UFC career, I could see Valentin having success with his aggressive forward pressure and unpredictability.”
The Fight Analyst – Robert Valentin
- “Robert Valentin finally got into the win column his last time out and now takes on Serbia’s Dusko Todorovic. While Todorovic is the better striker, his propensity of not being able to keep the fight there will be his demise. Valentin will close the distance, land the takedowns, and finish Todorovic on the mat.”
Austin Swaim – Dusko Todorovic
- “Robzilla’s 33% striking defense is awful, so the longer this fight stays standing, the more it favors the hometown guy. I just also don’t buy Valentin’s danger opposite a black belt never submitted as a pro. Dusko is my favorite ‘dog on the card.”
Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina
HayJive – Vlasto Cepo
- “I’ll take Vlasto Cepo, although it comes with some hesitation. I’m not especially high on him as a fighter, but this matchup plays into his strengths. He likes to throw heavy hooks early and hunt for a knockout, and I’m not convinced Urbina has enough resistance at this stage of his career. I’ll take Cepo by first-round KO.”
Nolan – Vlasto Cepo
- “Cepo should be too explosive and powerful for Urbina. Urbina struggles with the heavy hitters and this is a matchup where he’s going to be in danger the whole time.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Vlasto Cepo
- “I trust the home town guy over a less durable Urbina who isn’t a high confidence play.”
The Fight Analyst – Vlasto Cepo
- “It’s hard to put much stock into Gilbert Urbina especially moving up a weight class against a heavy-handed Vlasto Cepo. Cepo should pass the test of his UFC debut with flying colors with an early-round KO of Urbina.”
Austin Swaim – Vlasto Cepo
- “A move up in weight for a guy who had major chin concerns at 170? Against *this guy*? Vlasto Cepo is a mindless marauder who marches forward from the opening bell. I think Urbina is more technical, but he’s got to prove to me he can eat the shot before I believe he wins this bout.”
Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon
HayJive – Milos Janicic
- “I’ll take Milos Janicic to get the win. His awkward striking style makes him a difficult fighter to prepare for, and he has a sharp lead hand, a solid jab, and a dangerous left hook. While his takedown defense isn’t perfect, he scrambles exceptionally well and is difficult to hold down. Add in his cardio, experience, and the home crowd behind him, and I like Janicic to outwork Gunion over three rounds.”
Nolan – Noah Gugnon
- “Gugnon is a decent striker who has good grappling, and if he decides to wrestle he should have an edge in this matchup. I’m going to bet he goes to the wrestling early and wins minutes on the mat.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Milos Janicic
- “Balkan guy in the Balkans over a French Guy?”
The Fight Analyst – Milos Janicic
- “This is the toughest fight on the main card, but I’ll take Milos Janicic to do his best to avoid the grappling exchanges with Noah Gugnon and outstrike him throughout the fight to get his first win inside the Octagon.”
Austin Swaim – Milos Janicic
- “This is a great main card opener. Gugnon is a more well-rounded fighter, but Janicic has good balance and submission defense on tape. The Montenegrin is just a more natural, fluid striker with great eyes and ability to roll punches. I think he gets the nod in a competitive decision.”
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