UFC 333 Predictions & Picks: Volkanovski vs Evloev
UFC 333 comes from Etihad Arena in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday, October 24. Alexander Volkanovski meets Movsar Evloev in the featherweight title main event, and Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili run it back for the bantamweight title. Lone’er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov, Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev and Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita also anchor the main card. Who do our experts like to get their hands raised at UFC 333?
UFC 333 Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
HayJive – Movsar Evloev
- “This is a difficult fight to predict, but I’m leaning toward Evloev because of his youth, elite wrestling, and ability to blend takedown threats into his striking. Volkanovski remains the more technical striker, but at 38 years old, with limited opponent variety over the past two and a half years, I question how much longer he can maintain his elite level. I expect a competitive fight, but I believe Evloev’s hunger to capture the title, combined with his wrestling and ability to land impactful shots, will be enough to edge out a victory.”
Nolan – Movsar Evloev
- “It feels like Movsar’s time. He’s got good striking and a clear grappling edge. They’re in Abu Dhabi which plays to his side.”
The Fight Analyst – Alexander Volkanovski
- “Alexander Volkanovski will retain his title by unanimous decision. His elite takedown defense, lateral footwork and championship-level kickboxing will stifle Evloev’s chain-wrestling attempts while pulling away on the scorecards over five rounds.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Alexander Volkanovski
- “His takedown defense is elite as we saw against a bigger opponent in Volk. Evloev lacks the power to cause any damage towards Volk so he should feel comfortable.”
Austin Swaim – Movsar Evloev
- “At odds, I’ve only bet against Volk one time in his UFC title run, and that was against Ilia Topuria. Evloev is a similarly intimidating up-and-comer whose wrestling pace never wavered against Lerone Murphy, and he’s got more natural power than his decision rate suggests. Discounting Volk’s attrition is Evloev is able to land anything clean at range or on the ground is not wise.”
Pap – Alexander Volkanovski
- “I can’t ignore Volk at these odds. Movsar is a very skilled fighter, however after seeing Volk handle the wrestling of Islam Makhachev in their first fight I believe he will be able to defend effectively. I also believe Volk has the best footwork in the division and will pick apart Movsar on the feet as the fight goes on.”
UFC 333 Co-Main Event: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
HayJive – Petr Yan
- “Merab’s relentless pressure and offensive wrestling have always been the foundation of his success, but I don’t see him making significant adjustments heading into this third matchup. Yan showed in their second fight that he can defend Merab’s attacks while simultaneously creating offense and landing damaging shots. After 50 minutes of cage time together, I believe Yan has figured out Merab’s game and will establish himself as the superior fighter in their trilogy.”
Nolan – Petr Yan
- “Yan has the worst style possible for Merab. Great takedown defense, better striking, and cardio to match him.”
The Fight Analyst – Petr Yan
- “Yan will win by decision to close out the trilogy and keep his bantamweight belt. Having solved Dvalishvili’s timing in their rematch, Yan’s superior boxing defense, tight hips along the fence and damaging counter strikes will dictate the scoring.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Petr Yan
- “Once you figure out how to defeat Merab I feel he will struggle to take you down. Moreover, he will also struggle to cause any damage and to impose his gameplan.”
Austin Swaim – Merab Dvalishvili
- “Back to ol’ reliable here. Merab was an underdog in his first two title fights, and people are overrating a “Machine” malfunction in December. I believe Merab about the weight cuts taking a toll when he attempted 20 (!) fewer takedowns against Yan than he did in their first meeting. I think a razor-close decision goes Merab’s way.”
Pap – Petr Yan
- “Scary to pick against a Merab who’s had almost a year to rest. However Yan looked amazing in their last fight, I worry for Merab’s nose and how well he will be able to remain “the machine” once that gets smashed in. Also love every skillets Yan brings with the trips and impeccable striking.”
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
HayJive – Ramazan Temirov
- “Kavanagh is a technical striker who thrives in clean exchanges, but Temirov’s relentless pressure and explosive power should make this a much more chaotic fight. While Temirov’s cardio over an extended fight is a concern, I trust his ability to recover between rounds and remain dangerous with his explosive movement and striking. Even if he doesn’t find an early knockout, I believe Temirov can maintain enough offense to win a decision.”
Nolan – Ramazan Temirov
- “Ramazan Temirov has fight ending power which has been the downfall of Kav. At some point he will connect and we will see if the chin holds up.”
The Fight Analyst – Ramazan Temirov
- “Ramazan Temirov will secure a second-round knockout. Kavanagh brings slick movement, but Temirov’s explosive blitzes and heavy finishing power will eventually catch Kavanagh in an open-mat exchange.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Lone’er Kavanagh
- “Close fight, though I think in skill for skill Lone’er is better. Temirov is dangerous earlier on whereas Lone’er tends to lose as the fight progresses, not earlier.”
Austin Swaim – Lone’er Kavanagh
- “Kavanagh’s chin concerns might be a little overstated. He got caught with a focus issue against Johnson, and Royval’s finish was a takedown into a submission. Temirov hits like a truck for 5 minutes, but this isn’t Steve Erceg, and I think Lone’er can drown him with a grappling pace late into this fight.”
Pap – Lone’er Kavanagh
- “Tough fight for Kavanagh, but I think Temirov is very one dimensional. He spams the overhand and threats the takedown quite obviously. I think Kavanagh is the more technical fighter, he just needs to be prefect defensively. If Kavanagh loses this fight, it’s because he gets caught.”
Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
HayJive – Rizvan Kuniev
- “Volkov tends to fight with thin margins, which I believe creates opportunities for Kuniev to steal rounds through takedowns and clinch control. While Kuniev is a capable striker, his biggest advantage should come from forcing Volkov into uncomfortable exchanges along the cage rather than allowing him to operate at range. I expect Kuniev to disrupt Volkov’s preferred style and do enough with his wrestling and clinch work to secure the upset.”
Nolan – Rizvan Kuniev
- “People are counting out Kuniev. He’s got the style to put Volkov against the cage and win minutes. His striking is powerful enough to make a difference here too.”
The Fight Analyst – Alexander Volkov
- “Alexander Volkov will earn a clear unanimous decision victory. Utilizing his massive reach advantage and methodical teep kicks, Volkov will pick Kuniev apart from range while neutralizing any sustained grappling pressure against the cage.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Alexander Volkov
- “There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING Kuniev can do to Volkov. In my opinion, Volkov is better everywhere.”
Austin Swaim – Rizvan Kuniev
- “This is one where I’m trusting my model. It’s looking at Volkov’s declining performance and career attrition and thinks Kuniev can find the button. I’d argue the Russian underdog has a path to victory via an ugly cage push, too. This is the fishiest betting line of the week.”
Pap – Rizvan Kuniev
- “Volkov can beat very tricky due to his range management, and his massive reach. Volkov at this stage isn’t much of a power threat, but he does have good volume. I like the power of Kuniev, with wrestling in his back pocket, if he takes Volkov down or catches him I think he can get it done. Kuniev has the finish upside, while Volkov Dec has value.”
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
HayJive – Losene Keita
- “My biggest concern with Aaron Pico is his durability, especially against a fast, powerful sniper like Keita, who should have a significant speed advantage. Pico is a talented wrestler and boxer, but his questionable top control and plodding footwork could make it difficult to contain Keita’s movement. I expect Keita to use his in-and-out striking to catch Pico with damaging shots as he attempts to close the distance.”
Nolan – Aaron Pico
- “Pico’s wrestling should be the difference. He’s got to watch out for the strikes at distance but if he closes the gap he can have worlds of success.”
The Fight Analyst – Losene Keita
- “Losene Keita will win by knockout inside the distance. While Pico possesses strong wrestling credentials, Keita’s blistering hand speed and lethal counter-punching will capitalize on Pico’s tendency to get drawn into reckless firefights.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Losene Keita
- “We know Pico can grapple, but we also know how much of that Michael Chandler DNA swims through his veins. Keita has confidence on his side and if he lands, it could be done quick.”
Austin Swaim – Aaron Pico
- “Unlike Lone’er, Pico’s chin concerns *are* very real. But, fighters at a much lower level were able to take Keita down and control him at times, and Pico’s wrestling and flexibility in his hips are outstanding. I think he looks -500 if he’s able to sap Keita’s gas tank with a successful first round on top.”
Pap – Aaron Pico
- “Aaron Pico is an amazing athlete, with all the skills to eventually become a champion. The chin is worrisome at times, but I think he has a clear wrestling/grappling advantage here. I expect him to use it, if not Losene could crack the chin again. I’ll take the better overall fighter rather than raw power.”
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