UFC Fight Night Predictions & Picks: Moicano vs Nolan
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan takes place Saturday, October 31 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas United States, headlined by Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan. The main card also features Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith and Ode’ Osbourne vs. Cody Durden.
Who do our experts like to get their hands raised at UFC Fight Night?
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan
HayJive – Renato Moicano
- “This is a massive step up in competition for Nolan, whose five-fight winning streak hasn’t come against particularly impressive opposition. Moicano is a much more experienced and dangerous grappler than anyone Nolan has faced, and his disciplined striking should allow him to avoid unnecessary risks on the feet. Nolan has shown a tendency to give up his back on the ground, which could be disastrous against someone with Moicano’s elite back-taking and submission skills.”
Nolan – Tom Nolan
- “I’ve got to take the underdog in a fight between a young hungry fighter showing improvements, and one who’s starting to talk retirement. Nolan may be too fast, too athletic, and too youthful.”
The Fight Analyst – Renato Moicano
- “Moicano’s more complete grappling game should give him the edge, particularly if Nolan initiates clinches and allows the Brazilian to work into body-lock takedowns. I expect Moicano to establish top position, force Nolan to expose his back during an escape and secure a second round submission.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Renato Moicano
- “Renato Moicano will use his experience here. Nolan has developed but hasn’t fought the opposition yet for me to fully be comfortable on him winning when things get tough.”
Austin Swaim – Tom Nolan
- “I’ve got PTSD from last week’s main event as an older fan favorite the consensus pick to establish levels, but Moicano still has questions to answer from a fight with Beneil Dariush where he was the only one who failed to finish the aging lightweight in six starts. Tom Nolan is only improving with City Kickboxing, and this low-power matchup is a good one to extinguish some chin concerns that plagued him earlier in his career.”
Pap – Tom Nolan
- “Tough test for Nolan here, but I appreciate the youth and explosiveness that Tom has. I favor him on the feet as well, as long as he can keep this there I like Tom Nolan to get the biggest win of his career.”
UFC Fight Night Co-Main Event: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith
HayJive – Jacobe Smith
- “I’m hesitant about Smith stepping in on short notice with only three weeks between fights, especially against a significant step up in competition. However, Brown has shown defensive grappling weaknesses, and I don’t believe he’s faced someone with Smith’s explosiveness and devastating ground-and-pound ability. Brown’s size and reach make him dangerous on the feet, but I expect Smith to secure takedowns and potentially finish him with ground and pound.”
Nolan – Jacobe Smith
- “Jacobe Smith has the power to KO Brown at any point. I’m not 100% convinced on Smith until I see adversity, but strike the iron while it’s hot.”
The Fight Analyst – Jacobe Smith
- “Brown’s reach and straight punches could create problems at distance, but Smith’s explosive wrestling should help him close the gap and prevent the veteran from settling behind his jab. I’m picking Smith to take Brown down early and overwhelm him with ground-and-pound for a first round TKO.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Jacobe Smith
- “Toughest test for Jacobe but I do believe this is a perfect intro into the rankings. If grappling plays a factor, it favors him.”
Austin Swaim – Jacobe Smith
- “A “fraud check” is certainly plausible given Smith’s low level of competition, but Jacobe keeps hitting people, and they keep going to sleep. A 36-year-old Brown, whose been finished three times since the COVID break, doesn’t have the durability I need to fade the surging prospect at this point.”
Pap – Jacobe Smith
- “This is a coin flip of a fight in my opinion, I believe Brown can get the upset with the range and power he possesses, however round one while Jacobe is fresh and explosive I think he will put Randy in some tough positions. It’s not a matter of IF but WHEN Jacobe takes Randy down, I believe he will land big shots and land something to put out Randy. I like a live spot here for Randy if it makes it past round one.”
Ode’ Osbourne vs. Cody Durden
HayJive – Ode’ Osbourne
- “I view this as a 50-50 fight, but I favor Osbourne because of his length, speed, power, and overall striking advantage. Durden has a clear path to victory through his wrestling and cardio, but I question his fight IQ and tendency to strike when he should be grappling. With concerns about Durden’s durability and every round starting on the feet, I trust Osbourne to capitalize on his opportunities.”
Nolan – Cody Durden
- “Durden has the style and skill that Ode struggles with. If he gets the wrestling going, he can slowly take away the power from Ode. Durden can compete on the feet as well.”
The Fight Analyst – Ode’ Osbourne
- “Durden’s wrestling presents a clear threat, but his aggressive entries should give the longer, powerful Osbourne opportunities to land counters before the fight reaches the canvas. I’m taking Osbourne to catch Durden coming forward, hurt him with a clean counter and finish with follow-up punches for a first-round TKO.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Cody Durden
- “Durden’s grappling will be the difference maker though his underrated striking will be able to cause issues on the feet. Has more forms of winning.”
Austin Swaim – Ode’ Osbourne
- “Osbourne’s takedown defense improvements now have his rate (66%) well above the flyweight average (57%), and Durden is a sinking ship. He’s lost 7 of his last 9 fights with growing endurance concerns later into the bout. Osbourne’s general athleticism could be a problem.”
Pap – Ode’ Osbourne
- “Ode has a clear speed advantage here, as well as a bit of reach. Cody loves to engage in dog fights and most times that’s his downfall. Ode should catch him here if not I see a decision win.”
Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos
HayJive – Luana Santos
- “Luana Santos is 10 years younger and has the grappling upside to exploit this matchup, especially inside the smaller cage at the UFC Apex. She’s consistently shown a willingness to initiate clinches, secure takedowns, and control opponents while hunting for submissions rather than engaging in extended striking exchanges. If she sticks to that approach, I believe she can dictate where this fight takes place and get the victory.”
Nolan – Luana Santos
- “Luana’s wrestling and judo should be a huge weapon in this matchup. If she can rack up control time, I see her winning atleast 2 of 3 rounds to get her hand raised.”
The Fight Analyst – Luana Santos
- “Yana’s clinch striking makes her dangerous in close quarters, but Luana’s judo and stronger ground game should allow her to turn those exchanges into takedown opportunities. I expect Luana to limit prolonged striking exchanges, land enough offense from top position and earn a unanimous decision.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Luana Santos
- “Age and physicality favor Luana. She’s been developing enough where I don’t feel she will succumb to any of the pressure by Yana.”
Austin Swaim – Yana Santos
- “It wasn’t that long ago that Luana Santos was trapped at distance with no answers against Stephanie Egger. She’s faced fortuitous competition at women’s 135, but Yana is a tough out that has been fighting ranked competition for nearly a decade, and she’s got a huge advantage in the standup. If you lay the chalk with Luana here, you have to be confident in a submission, and I’m not whatsoever.”
Pap – Luana Santos
- “Tough match up here, I like the youth and activity of Luana Santos. I expect this to be a slow competitive fight but if Luana gets the grappling going I think she shows levels”
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov
HayJive – Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- “I believe JPL is the much more well-rounded fighter, with legitimate BJJ skills that should make it difficult for Hassenov to establish control on the ground. While Hassenov has a size advantage and solid wrestling, I question his cardio, lack of offensive grappling threats, and overall effectiveness with his takedowns. Hassenov carries power on the feet, but I trust JPL’s more complete skill set to get the job done.”
Nolan – Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- “JPL has the grappling to make Hasanov’s wrestling game hard to get rolling. On the feet JPL is better, his jiu jitsu could threaten hasanov, and his gas tank should allow him to put damage on hasanov throughout the entire fight.”
The Fight Analyst – Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- “Hasanov’s wrestling could produce takedowns, but Lebosnoyani’s submission threats and ability to scramble should make those positions difficult to maintain safely. I’m picking Lebosnoyani to capitalize during a ground exchange, move into a dominant position and secure a second-round submission.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- “JPL is one of the dark horses at the WW division. I can see him doing a great job defending the takedowns and implementing his game plan”
Austin Swaim – Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- “Hasanov showed really poor cardio and top control despite 17 (!) takedowns against Eric Nolan, but Lebosnoyani isn’t Nolan. He’s comfortable in scrambles with dangerous front chokes, and he’s got sneaky kicks, knees, and elbows to catch Hasanov on entry. This is a battle of skill versus strength, and JPL’s the former.”
Pap – Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- “Love JP in this spot. Hasanov gas tank is very suspect, he’s going to rely on the wrestling heavy. I trust JP’s jiujitsu to be the equalizer here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a late finish.”
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