UFC Oklahoma City Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Du Plessis vs. Usman

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Oklahoma City. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Oklahoma City: Du Plessis vs. Usman, taking place at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Oklahoma City Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Anna Melisano vs. Dione Barbosa

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Melisano	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Barbosa	Eligible

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Giving Dione Barbosa the blue corner at UFC Oklahoma City is just flat disrespectful.

Barbosa, 34, might not always be the most entertaining fighter, but you can’t argue with a UFC resume where she’s truly 4-1, having been the victim of a blind robbery against Karine Silva. She should occupy Silva’s spot in the rankings on the back of a pristine +1.70 striking success rate (SSR) as a Brazilian with a grappling base. We saw her 2.40 takedowns and 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes shine against Diana Belbita, resulting in a first-round arm triangle.

If you’re here for what UFC sees in Anna Melisano to have her higher in the internal rankings, according to this bout order, I have no idea. Melisano actually just — and I mean just — lost on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 34 a few weeks ago by first-round submission to Melissa Amaya, who could be a decent prospect off the show. But, that fight was at strawweight — her natural weight class.

That’s a concerning trend, given that she also lost via second-round submission to Cheyanne Bowers (0-1 PFL), and “The Witch” has faced a brutal UFC schedule for grappling offense. If Melisano hasn’t shored up those holes, it could be an extremely quick night at the office.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: It would be an insane leap from Melisano to lose at 115 pounds by not knowing what to do off her back and somehow survive a larger Barbosa in those positions. I played Barbosa in the first two rounds (-105) with submission sprinkles.

RJ Harris vs. Alvin “Goozie” Hines

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Harris	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Hines	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This is a sloppy, LFA-level heavyweight fight, and we’re going to enjoy every second of it.

I tried to warn you about Alvin Hines before laying the chalk on Jhonata Diniz in his debut. Hines is a scrapper in every sense of the word, bringing an undefeated LFA record (5-0) that showcases enough durability to potentially test Diniz’s ground game. The problem is he didn’t, and the fight was still fun.

“Goozie” waltzed forward like a zombie, but it is worth noting how little success he enjoyed. His striking accuracy (31%) and defense (38%) were both awful, resulting in a -2.00 SSR. We also can’t comfortably give him any grappling edge over newcomer RJ Harris.

Harris, 27, was following the same path. A submission win over Contender Series (DWCS) alum Philip Latu was gearing toward a show appearance himself, but duty calls after Allen Frye Jr. pulled out of his fight with Hines. “The Hammer” is a 6’6″ mountain with an 80″ reach who has shown a boxing-heavy approach, but his speed seems pretty average, and his defense is severely lacking. Don’t sleep on his BJJ, though.

Here’s the problem. I’d have played “Goozie” at any number if I’d known I’d get the dude who marched forward unbothered against Diniz. Harris’ mediocre cardio and defense are a recipe for disaster against a marauder. Plus, Hines is the significantly more experienced guy, including that fight.

But, Hines pissed rocket fuel to earn a full-year suspension entering this date, and I think last week’s main event told us a couple of things about the use of anabolic steroids if you’re no longer using them. This one’s a tough call — other than being a lot of fun.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My heart says “Goozie”, but my head says Hunter after Hines’ ugly weigh-in on Friday. His physique looks notably worse, and Hunter fought well into Round 2 in his last fight. His BJJ is a big deal at heavyweight, too. I played late submission sprinkles.

Alden Coria vs. Stewart Nicoll

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Coria	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Nicoll	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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MMA math isn’t perfect, but it’ll get the result correct at UFC Oklahoma City.

Stewart Nicoll was a whiff by UFC scouts. There might have been a bit of bad fortune to get stuck in Jesus Aguilar’s guillotine, but Lucas Rocha — who needed a miraculous comeback on DWCS — mopped him for a +70 striking differential in Rocha’s debut, and Alessandro Costa did Alessandro Costa things to the Aussie.

Nicoll just has no redeeming qualities in over 25 octagon minutes. His striking (39%) and takedown (11%) accuracies are basically non-starters to offense, and his durability is a huge question mark; he was also hunched over at one point in the Rocha bout.

I was a bit disappointed by Alden Coria‘s effort against Luis Gurule, but his style, unfortunately, was always going to keep Gurule in the grinder’s comfort zone. Lest we forget what Coria did to the aforementioned Costa on short notice at Noche UFC last fall.

Considering that “Cobra” has a 69% striking defense, you could realistically expect Nicoll to land sub-30% of his strikes at UFC Oklahoma City when weighing those historical rates with a two-inch reach edge for the Mexico native. Coria’s also tough to grapple and is due for a knockdown based on his regional finishing rate. This is how the largest favorite on the card should profile.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Nicoll’s chin is above average — but that’s about it. I played Coria R2/R3 at a surprisingly nice +145 price tag.

Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs. Felipe Franco

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Rodrigues Jr.	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Franco	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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We’re in the Freddy Vidalverse for this one, so buckle up and hold onto something.

Both of these guys fought Vidal, the PE teacher who stole hearts on Season 9 of DWCS, on the audition series, but the results were very different. Felipe Franco took a wrestling-heavy approach early, gassing himself out into a version of Vidal that missed weight (210 pounds) in a horrific, sloppy affair. That resulted in Freddy’s third-round submission win, which set up a second chance at a contract against Levi Rodrigues Jr., who ended the dream via first-round (T)KO.

“Baby Monster” immediately popped for PEDs after his win over Vidal, though. Meanwhile, a dejected Franco stayed ready and earned the call to battle Mario Pinto (3-0 UFC) in a heavyweight fight that was far closer than anyone had imagined. Franco had a chance to win the fight off the Round 3 stools, but the Portuguese favorite went full “weight bully” with late control time.

Pinto is regarded as one of the top heavyweight prospects in the division. Plus, including Vidal, Rodrigues Jr.’s regional resume is horrifying. It’s legitimately all cans with losing or incomplete records. He’s never won a fight outside of eight minutes, whereas Franco has fought admirably into Round 2 during both fights thus far.

I figured MMA math would influence this line, and it has. I can forgive a bad gameplan and a death gas at the correct price when Franco, as a +145 underdog (when I played it), has the most meaningful performance of these two in a vacuum.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I just think Rodrigues Jr. is a typical heavyweight can crusher. No grappling skills compared to Franco, who showed nice wrestling and grappling regionally. If it’s not an early Rodrigues KO, this fight swings the underdog’s way quickly.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Lebosnoyani	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Ko	Eligible

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These prospect-versus-prospect matchups are brutal, and we have three of them in a row starting here and concluding on the main card.

It’s a weird matchup when, in general, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani seems good for business. His highlight kick on DWCS last season was followed by a split decision — that shouldn’t have been a split — over Phil Rowe. He’s really great on social media, impersonating the Petr Yan scream at his debut weigh-ins. He’s also in the red corner here despite a 1-0 record to Seokhyeon Ko‘s 2-0.

By “Dana Rules”, Ko is 0-2, though. “The Korean Tyson” has grinded out three decision wins in three UFC-affiliated appearances, using exclusively his 4.00 takedowns landed per 15 minutes to get it done. He averaged just 2.73 significant strikes per minute despite the control time. The prospect hasn’t been as entertaining as he’s been efficient in bouts against Rowe, Oban Elliott, and Igor Cavalcanti on DWCS.

I put myself in White’s shoes here, though. Ko was initially matched up with Jacobe Smith in Houston and pulled out. He now draws Lebosnoyani as another of the promotional favorites. I think UFC wants to put him on a highlight reel, but with “Mufasa” Lebosnoyani yet to face a takedown attempt, I don’t know how likely that is.

Still, the underdog is the faster, more diverse striker with 5 of his 9 pro wins coming via submission. +180 seems crazy when there’s still so much we don’t know about both guys.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Ko’s entire UFC tenure has been top timing guys vulnerable to top time. I still think he’s a slow, stiff striker who hasn’t faced a submission threat. Lebosnoyani provides both. Especially for a road show, JPL’s ITD prop (+370) seems crazy.

Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado

Featherweight (145 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Bashi	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Delgado	Eligible

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The “film bros” have been crushing it for two weeks. I’m hoping this is among the pitfalls they fall into on this card.

In February 2023, Jose Miguel Delgado had an ugly-looking regional fight where Chris Mecate, an 11-3 LFA alum, controlled him for three rounds. That’s exactly the “past” that film bros love to live inside, looking for some sort of edge that contradicts the data we have in the present.

The current data suggests it’s not a major concern. Andre Fili landed 4 of 6 takedowns on the MMA Lab prospect, but he mustered just 0:59 in control time with them. Those get-ups could wear Austin Bashi down unless the prospect’s control has improved since a setback in his UFC debut.

Christian Rodriguez is a known anti-grappling ace and prospect killer, so, in hindsight, Bashi was dead on arrival. He rebounded well to submit John Yannis (1-2 UFC) in a fight that was suited to his strengths against a bantamweight. Bashi is a tenacious grappler, as evidenced by 7.81 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Weight class is a major reason I’m backing Delgado here. Bashi’s regional success was all at 135 (or 138?) pounds. He’s fought two bantamweights, and a former one, in three octagon trips. The problem is modern featherweight is loaded with these freakishly tall guys like Delgado, who is 5’11” and dense for that frame. He wouldn’t be totally out of place at 155 with a camp to bulk.

Bashi will need a backpack position to win minutes and threaten a finish at UFC Oklahoma City. Even the 24-year-old’s most ardent supporters would acknowledge he’s cooked at distance, but his general top control was also extremely poor against CeeRod.

This is also a major gym mismatch; Delgado gets reps with Mario Bautista and Kyler Phillips as wrestlers while Bashi is the largest fish in his tiny pond.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I decided early in the week that Bashi’s grappling might not even be a huge plus at featherweight. He’s so small. It wouldn’t be shocking if he’s able to bank a couple of rounds with control time, but it’s a tough argument to make at a pick ’em. Delgado has all the fight’s upside to inflict damage.