Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa
If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Vegas 118. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.
I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs. Bonfim, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Prelim Betting Picks and Props
Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Souza | 66.89% | 28.79% | 12.31% | 16.48% | 38.10% |
| Carnelossi | 33.11% | 14.12% | 6.20% | 7.93% | 18.99% |
Matching countries (Brazil) and UFC records (3-3) square off in the typical women’s strawweight opener for an Apex card at UFC Vegas 118.
Ketlen Souza earned that in full for her last appearance against Bruna Brasil, which was a frustrating, confusing decision in which both women fought against their best interests. Nonetheless, the Brazilian earned a victory after split-decision losses to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill in two fights before that one.
Ariane Carnelossi has had a considerably worse tenure — even if the record is padded by a laughable DQ win over Rodriguez. Impossibly, Carnelossi’s two wins have a combined 0-7 UFC record against everyone else. She’s the only stoppage victim of Talita Alencar’s mediocre run. She’s arguably on the roster bubble without a win at UFC Vegas 118.
The model just doesn’t see it as particularly likely given Carnelossi’s -1.98 striking success rate (SSR) and 22% takedown defense. She’s been a punching bag at striking distance, and things have gone even worse on the ground via three losses by finish.
Souza doesn’t always take the optimal gameplan, but she throws heat and submitted Yazmin Jauergui (3-2 UFC). I’m almost religiously “underdog or pass” in these women’s strawweight bouts, but I’ve gone fishing in Souza’s prop market this time.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I can’t believe Souza’s submission prop (+750) was so long. Since snatching Jaurergui’s neck, she’s run into basically three un-submittable opponents. Carnelossi gave her neck to Alencar multiple times, and her strength of victory is essentially nonexistent.
Jeisla Chaves vs. Yuneisy Duben
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Chaves | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Duben | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
There are plenty of nominees. Shoutout to Brandon Jenkins, Jose Daniel Medina, and Alen Amodovski. However, I think Yuneisy Duben is the worst UFC fighter of the 2020s.
Duben was a +1000 underdog before an upset first-round knockout that brought Dana White out of his chair, but the taekwondo striker is trying to make a living at women’s flyweight like Robelis Despaigne. Against a regional heavy bag like Shannon Clark, it worked. Against Carli Judice? Not so much.
Jeisla Chaves isn’t exactly a known quantity, but at the very least, she pulled the upset on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) at +205, on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) over the full 15 minutes, creating a more stable, predictable result. Her striking accuracy (51%) and defense (60%) numbers were solid against a top prospect, Sofia Montenegro. She was also matched with Regina Tarin, who is another high-level prospect, before Tarin withdrew.
Chaves doesn’t have a ton of grappling on her resume, but Clark was such a big favorite because Duben is a total white belt if it were to get there. Even on the feet, Chaves seems ahead in terms of volume, head defense, and legitimized success.
From the moment Dubin’s upset was scored, I was convinced she’d never win a UFC fight. Chaves has shown enough that I’ve got no choice but to believe she can deliver on that prophecy.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I thought on Sunday that I’d want to attack Duben’s grappling, but Chaves is a pressure kickboxer. It’s not really her game, and I think she’ll have no problem melting a defensively deficient Duben at distance. I had to play inside the distance (+120) if I’m going to call Duben the worst fighter of the decade.
Jordan Leavitt vs. Joanderson Brito
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Leavitt | 49.46% | 22.81% | 7.23% | 15.58% | 26.64% |
| Brito | 50.54% | 29.46% | 6.38% | 23.08% | 21.08% |
Jordan Leavitt‘s claim to fame might be giving us the evidence we needed to lock Isaac Dulgarian behind bars.
In his 145-pound debut, “The Monkey King” looked noticeably fit and adapted to his new weight class and dominated Yadier del Valle with 4 takedowns and 7:57 in control time. In a stunner, del Valle wasn’t some grappling magician as much as benefitted from Dulgarian throwing the two’s previous bout.
It’s an exciting turn of the page for Leavitt, who enjoyed success to the tune of a 5-3 record at lightweight, as well. An ultra-physical featherweight, Joanderson Brito, shows up in his bracket at UFC Vegas 118.
Brito’s career couldn’t have started hotter than a DWCS win over Diego Lopes, followed by a knockout of Andre Fili, but that latter result seems a bit fortunate when it was the only knockdown of a 10-fight career for “Turbao” in the octagon to this point. In fact, Brito has also relied on his wrestling (3.38 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) and jiu-jitsu (1.1 attempts per 15) to win fights.
If this matchup between two grapplers turns into a striking match, I understand Brito’s status as a favorite, but the Brazilian just surrendered 4 takedowns and 13:57 (!) in control time to Pat Sabatini, who just proved incapable of flooring William Gomis. I think it’s a legitimate weakness for him.
Even at distance, Brito’s striking defense is 14 percentage points worse. This line should be a lot closer than it is.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Brito is a guy I’ve always struggled with. His career would probably be a lot different if he hadn’t had ostensibly luckboxed finishes against Fili and Jonathan Pearce (via guillotine). Leavitt’s debut was a shutout, and I don’t have any reservations about his ability to do what Sabatini managed, inviting a play on the decision prop (+320).
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Cachoeira | 43.36% | 13.72% | 11.85% | 1.87% | 29.64% |
| Chandler | 56.64% | 22.17% | 10.22% | 11.96% | 34.46% |
I’ve long said “Zombie Girl” is the most fitting nickname in the promotion’s history. If you like her, you’re just hoping Priscila Cachoeira‘s legendary chin didn’t finally crack.
Cachoeira is now 37, and she’s taken a world of damage behind a -3.17 SSR before a knockout blow by a surging Joselyne Edwards in her last fight. That result alone isn’t poor, but the circumstances of absorbing damage, age, and moving up in weight to 135 pounds three fights ago don’t help. Klaudia Sygula picked up a convincing decision win over her in February.
She’ll try to end a two-fight skid against Stockton’s Chelsea Chandler. The female disciple of Nick and Nate Diaz also got dismantled by Edwards in her last fight, but convincing losses to Norma Dumont and Yana Santos — notably both top-10 fighters in the division — preceded that outcome as she’s no spring chicken (35) herself.
Here’s why I love my model’s result in this fight. At striking range, this is indeed a sloppy bar fight where Cachoeira’s power and aggressiveness could come out on top. However, the Brazilian is 0-5 by submission as a pro and has tapped to each of the last 3 women she’s faced that you’d classify as having any grappling danger at all. Chandler’s gym provides hope she has some, meaning I think she’s got the potential to look -500 on the mat while also being live to win at distance.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Cachoeira is a knockout-or-bust fighter in perpetuity, and Chandler demonstrated a decent fight IQ to take down and control Josi Nunes two fights ago. I followed the model on Chandler (-120), the fight to go all 15 minutes (+100), and Chandler’s decision prop (+220), but it’s a little scary if Chelsea shows a BJJ wrinkle we’ve yet to see in UFC.
Bruno Silva vs. Edgar Chairez
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Silva | 56.19% | 26.33% | 15.42% | 10.91% | 29.85% |
| Chairez | 43.81% | 28.84% | 11.21% | 17.63% | 14.97% |
This is a classic example of buying and selling UFC results over performances.
Edgar Chairez got pretty fortunate judging results at UFC Mexico in February, sneaking past Felipe Bunes, who was 1-2 in the UFC, during what was a squash match on paper. “Puro Chicali” has only lost to Joshua Van, Tatsuro Taira, and Clayton Carpeneter in UFC-affiliated settings, but his wins are over foes who are combined 4-12 (with a no contest) in the UFC. I still don’t know if there’s a great measuring stick.
Maybe Bruno Silva is one. “Bulldog” was on the wrong end of the judges’ favor against Charles Johnson in a fight where he controlled the center and landed harder shots despite a -12 striking differential. It wasn’t a robbery, but it felt like he was the better guy. Johnson, Van, and Manel Kape are the only three to defeat the Brazilian since the start of 2021.
The stat sheet is where this matchup becomes extremely lopsided in Silva’s favor. His -0.74 SSR isn’t great, but it’s significantly better than Chairez’s (-1.10 SSR). The Mexican’s 38% takedown D is also a real problem, given Silva’s 8.04 takedowns per 15 minutes. Van landing three takedowns against him is a really bad sign that he’s willing to play jiu-jitsu off his back.
Chairez’s selling points are his age (30), a six-inch reach edge, an iron chin that’s never been KO’d, and an outstanding training gym in Mexico at Entram. None of it has actually translated to the box score as recently as three months ago, though.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Thank you, film bros. Silva’s moneyline (-113) and knockout prop (+550) moved into the model’s value range this week as they chase Chairez’s physical tools, but the Bunes fight shows how unremarkably he can manage to put them together. Bruno’s fight with Johnson was an overperformance and showed he’s still a ranked guy.
Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| McGhee | Eligible |
| Yannis | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
Amidst Umar Nurmagomedov’s latest fight announcement, it really seems like they’re struggling to line up bantamweight fights at the moment. This is the latest example of a disservice to fans.
Marcus McGhee isn’t just coming off a loss to Petr Yan. He’s coming off a decision loss over three rounds, where a -15 striking differential shows he didn’t win the fight, but he looked like he belonged. Now, he’s getting a guy who was mopped by Austin Bashi?
Styles do make fights, and John Yannis‘ loss to Bashi, which came via grappling, does provide hope that an MMA Lab striker is an easier matchup. But, Yannis has hardly made an imprint that he’s even a roster staple just by knocking out Jamie Siraj, who had KO issues on the regional scene, in Canada earlier this year.
Yannis hasn’t been KO’d in 14 pro fights, so there is a path to this being a competitive fight where McGhee, who has gone to a decision in consecutive fights, lets the American hang around. However, I value his +54 striking differential over Jonathan Martinez just as much as the Yan showing. He’s the known quantity who is not too far removed from being the guy who terminated Gaston Bolanos and Journey Newson.
I don’t have any sort of conviction that Yannis isn’t a regional-level fighter to pick him for an upset over a guy that could be right there with Sean O’Malley and Kyler Phillips for the best 135-pound fighter in his gym.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I trusted a show viewer with the specific Round 1 (+1000) and Round 2 (+1500) submission sprinkles at UFC Vegas 118. It’s a great point when McGhee leaped to Journey Newson’s back in his debut, and John Yannis’ grappling holes are clear as day.
Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa
Flyweight (125 pounds) – Featured Prelim
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Schnell | 34.03% | 17.51% | 8.38% | 9.13% | 16.52% |
| Costa | 65.97% | 57.61% | 37.96% | 19.65% | 8.36% |
This is one of the most ridiculous UFC betting lines of the year.
Alessandro Costa is a historic underperformer. He’s alternated wins and losses in a 3-3 tenure, and I’ve deemed him largely unable to be trusted since a total faceplant against a debuting Alden Coria at Noche UFC last fall. Costa’s “breakout” performance as a rebound was finding the body of Stewart Nicoll (0-3 UFC) in a fight where he had a -6 striking differential. He lost convincingly to Amir Albazi. I just can’t take a -900 moneyline seriously.
That comes solely from Matt Schnell‘s attrition, which I think might be a bit overstated at this point. He hasn’t been dropped in any of his three fights since March 2024. Schnell’s most worrisome habit is sticking his neck in front chokes, which is how both Cody Durden and Joseph Morales dispatched him recently. Costa (0.4 submission attempts per 15) doesn’t really butter his bread there.
Schnell carries a four-inch height and three-inch reach advantage into a fight where he also has considerably more high-level experience. I do think he’s going to make parlay bettors sweat if this fight extends beyond that 8-to-9-minute mark, when Costa is conceivably fresh enough to land a haymaker that makes Chris Tognoni giddy.
By the way, “Danger” is 4-0 in UFC decisions entering this fight with a historically poor minute-winner.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I chickened out of a moneyline play and upset call, but I played Matt Schnell’s decision-only moneyline (+115) and decision (+900) props in a fight that is extremely winnable for him if his chin holds.
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