Expert Picks: UFC 317
UFC 317 is set to electrify Las Vegas this Saturday, headlining International Fight Week with a card that could reshape two of the promotion’s most dynamic divisions. In the main event, surging superstar Ilia Topuria, fresh off knockout wins over legends Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, moves up to challenge for the vacant lightweight title against submission king Charles Oliveira. Topuria’s aggressive striking and unbeaten UFC run make him a slight favorite, but Oliveira, armed with a record 16 UFC submissions and the most finishes in promotional history, remains the division’s most dangerous opportunist. With Islam Makhachev vacating the belt to chase welterweight gold, the winner here could set up a blockbuster future showdown.
The co-main event features flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, on a seven-fight win streak, defending against New Zealand’s Kai Kara-France. Pantoja’s relentless grappling and proven record in rematches give him the edge, but Kara-France’s knockout power and recent resurgence promise fireworks in their long-awaited rematch.
Elsewhere on the card, expect high-stakes action as Beneil Dariush faces Renato Moicano in a pivotal lightweight clash, and Brandon Royval meets Joshua Van in a flyweight bout with title implications. UFC 317 promises drama, legacy, and potentially new faces atop the sport’s most competitive divisions.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC 317.
Topuria vs Oliveira | HOF
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
- HayJive – Ilia Topuria
“I’ll take Topuria to stay undefeated and get his second belt. Just too well rounded for Charles to make him pay.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Ilia Topuria
“Ilia is on the verge of his prime, getting better and better. Charles can put up a good fight but ultimately this is Topuria’s time.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Charles Oliveira
“Oliveira is a large dog, and I understand the appeal, seen that Topuria has both powerful and precise striking, and Oliveira does get hit. Despite such, Oliveira will have a size and strength advantage, and if this hits the mat, I could see a scenario where he finds the submission.”
- Corrie – Ilia Topuria
“Main events have been hit or miss for me all year admittedly, and at first glance my heart went straight to Charles but now my head is correcting that…. I think it’ll be competitive early on, the later it goes, Ilia’s power, pressure, and underrated grappling break through, and gived him the edge over Charles, unfortunately. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the knockout.”
- The Fight Analyst – Ilia Topuria
“This is the time for Ilia Topuria to start his run at lightweight. While Charles Oliveira presents some dangers on the feet and on the mat, Topuria is too defensively sound to get caught. With how Oliveira lives dangerously on the edge in his fights and takes a ton of damage, expect Topuria to land a thunderous combination putting Oliveira away midway through the fight to become the undisputed lightweight champion.”
Pantoja vs KKF | HOF
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
- HayJive – Kai Kara-France
“I’ll take a flyer on the underdog in Kai Kara France. His takedown and submission defense paired with his striking will give him a good chance to win here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Kai Kara-France
“This is a value play at 2-1 odds. Kai has the power, striking, and possibly wrestling defense to keep this on the feet for longer periods of time. Every champs run comes to and end and Pantoja could be due.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Alexandre Pantoja
“Pantoja is aggressive in his forward pressure and has the cardio and chin to sustain the pace over 5 Rounds. I can see Pantoja drowning KKF towards later rounds, ultimately finding the finish.
- Corrie – Alexandre Pantoja
“Pantoja’s aging like fine wine with the belt. He’s durable, unpredictable, and can win wherever the fight goes, so I’m not stepping in front of that train. KKF has the power, sure, and scrambling to make it competitive, but he’s struggled at this level before and coming off a layoff doesn’t help. Give me Pantoja for one more defense.”
- The Fight Analyst – Kai Kara-France
“I truly believe Alexandre Pantoja’s championship run ends here against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja will have a tough time if he cannot land the takedowns in this matchup. Kara-France has a great takedown defense of 88% which leads me to believe he will be able to keep this fight standing, where he will be winning minutes until he lands something big, putting Pantoja away and becoming the new flyweight champion.”
Royval vs Van | HOF
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
- HayJive – Joshua Van
“I’ll take Van to continue his hot streak. I like the youth, the activity, and overall striking I think will be more effective in this matchup.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Joshua Van
“I’m flipping my pick here. Royval’s concussions scare me. He’s a great well rounded fighter but he’s also at his ceiling, while Van is only 23, evolving, and locked in more than ever.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Joshua Van
“I’m not ultra-confident in this fight, but I love the momentum from Van. The fact Rovyal leaves himself exposed a lot, leads me to believe he will be caught a few times, sometimes altering the progress of a fight. If this was a 5 rounder, I’d be a bit more worried, but this gives Van the opportunity to show his skill without giving the last two rounds for Royval to show experience.”
- Corrie – Joshua Van
“This is a matchup between two absolute machines and I was surprised to see Van favorited over Royval, but Van’s just been looking sharper and more composed every fight and while Royval’s the biggest test of his career by far, and if he’s gonna lose one, it’s probably this… but at this point, and given the fact he feels like, and fights like, a younger Royval, I’m sort of looking for Van to pass this test and pull it off.”
- The Fight Analyst – Joshua Van
“This is a far tougher matchup than Brandon Royval’s previous matchup with Manel Kape. Mainly because Van sets a pace for 15 minutes, which is hard to keep up with, his nonstop pressure, in-and-out footwork, and combinations will give Royval a ton of trouble. As long as Van doesn’t get clipped or get caught in something during a scramble, he should be able to piece up Royval at range, coming away with the biggest win of his career and securing his spot to fight next for the flyweight title.”
Moicano vs Dariush | HOF
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
- HayJive – Renato Moicano
“Dariush will have his chances to take over this fight, but I’ll take Moicano to get it done. I trust his durability a bit more.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Renato Moicano
“Can’t pick against the money man.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Renato Moicano
“Moicano is on a positive momentum of his career, despite his loss towards Islam. Since 2021, his two losses are short-notice losses. Moicano has solid striking and has been a bit more defensively sound recently. I can see him picking apart Dariush over three rounds.”
- Corrie – Renato Moicano
“Both guys, career wise, feel similar, yet Moicano just feels like he’s aging a little slower… Dariush is still dangerous, but he’s clearly lost a step, and in my opinion Moicano’s still got some juice left, and if he fights smart like he did against St-Denis, I think he gets it done.”
- The Fight Analyst – Renato Moicano
“Time isn’t on Beneil Dariush’s side at this moment, coming off of back-to-back knockout defeats, and he goes against another surging contender in Renato Moicano, who can continue that knockout streak. While Moicano is coming off a loss, his loss came against the champ on very short notice, which is no fault of his. As for this matchup, if Moicano can avoid the big power shots of Dariush and being put on his back, he should be able to land the more damaging blows on the feet, eventually putting Dariush away and getting back on track in the lightweight division.”
Talbott vs Lima | HOF
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
- HayJive – Felipe Lima
“I’ll take Lima for the pick but that’s only due to the lack of Takedown defense of Talbott. If Lima doesn’t come out and grapple with urgency he can easily lose here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Payton Talbott
“As a sizable underdog, I think this is a great buy low spot and everyone’s writing him off because of his loss to a vet. This will be a more suitable fight to get his game going.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Felipe Lima
“As much as I want to believe in a Talbott bounce-back, I find it hard seeing it here. Talbott has problems with pressure and if he couldn’t figure out Barcelos, it will be much harder against a more skilled, younger Lima that could drag this one late.”
- Corrie – Payton Talbott
“I’m leaning Talbott just because I think his volume, footwork, and speed, especially late, could give Lima real problems if this stays standing.That said, both guys are super tough and safest play might just be on the decision prop, so I don’t hate playing it that way instead.”
- The Fight Analyst – Felipe Lima
“Payton Talbott is coming off the first pro loss of his career in a one-sided matchup where his glaring weakness was on full display. Now he returns just 5 months later with another terrible matchup against Felipe Lima. Lima may not win a kickboxing match with Talbott, but his grappling will compensate. Once Lima can take Talbott to the mat and gets his back, that’s all she wrote as Lima sinks in the choke to extend his winning streak to 15 in a row.”
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
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