Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 322
UFC 322 promises fireworks this weekend from Madison Square Garden, headlined by a high-stakes clash as welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena faces former lightweight king Islam Makhachev. Della Maddalena’s crisp boxing and takedown defense will be tested by Makhachev’s relentless wrestling and smothering top control, with legacy implications as Makhachev seeks to become a two-division UFC champion.
In the co-main event, flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko welcomes former strawweight champion Zhang Weili to 125 pounds. Shevchenko’s tactical striking and veteran savvy meet Zhang’s aggressive pressure and versatile attack, posing serious questions about who can rule another division.
The main card is stacked, featuring top contenders Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales in a pivotal welterweight bout, while ex-champ Leon Edwards looks to rebound against heavy-hitter Carlos Prates. Rising prospects Bo Nickal and Roman Kopylov also look to make statements in their respective middleweight battles.
With two titles up for grabs and a deep supporting lineup, UFC 322 is set to shake up the championship landscape and deliver multiple must-watch matchups for fans and analysts alike.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 322.
Jack Della Maddalena (C) vs. Islam Makhachev
- HayJive – Islam Makhachev
“I don’t want Islam to win, but I do think his finishing ability combined with his control on the ground will be the difference.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Jack Della Maddalena
“Islam has fought former 145er’s for all his title fights. This is a big size step up, and JDM is right in his prime.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Islam Makhachev
“I do believe this will be quite similar to the Volkanovski fight, where Islam’s grappling will be able to edge him rounds, while he gets outstrucks in a few moments. Regardless, this is a close fight that I do see going the distance.”
- Corrie – Jack Della Maddalena
“With Islam moving up a weight class, he’s giving up some natural size and the kind of power that usually helps him dominate and it’s worth mentioning that his striking defense in the sport is incredible right now but Jack is a different puzzle. He doesn’t settle on bottom; his scrambles are sharp, and he’s notoriously hard to keep down. If he’s able to force this into boxing range, he can punish Islam’s entries and make him work harder than usual. That’s where the Volk influence from fight prep shows… If this goes late, I think Jack will make Islam work and he becomes a very live side as the fight gets deeper.”
- The Fight Analyst – Islam Makhachev
“I thoroughly expect this fight to play out a lot closer than the odds suggest. However, Makhachev’s grapple-heavy onslaught will be very difficult for JDM to deal with for 25 minutes. Expect Makhachev to edge out 3-4 rounds with his control to become the newest two-division UFC champion.”
Valentina Shevchenko (C) vs. Zhang Weili
- HayJive – Zhang Weili
“Weili is a freak athlete and I don’t think she’ll get outsized here moving up a weight class. The striking should be competitive but I like weili’s volume and on the ground she had great back takes.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Zhang Weili
“Zhang looked great lately, and feel she’s still getting better. We’ve seen Valentina is some extremely close fights.
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Zhang Weili
“I do believe Weili has been in less wars than Shevchenko, who while has been dominant, has been getting hurt more recently, while Weili has only really lost to a sudden headkick. I do believe Weili’s versatility will pair with Shevchenko too.”
- Corrie – Valentina Shevchenko
“She’s elite everywhere, truly one of the most well-rounded fighters in the sport BUT Zhang Weili? She proved she’s also HER, showing complete dominance against Tatiana Suarez on the mat. But moving up a weight class to fight Shevchenko is a totally different animal and Weili will be faster, sure, but I don’t think she gets past Valentina here. Shevchenko’s size and strength are a real factor for me.”
- The Fight Analyst – Valentina Shevchenko
“Valentina Shevchenko is one of the greatest female fighters of all time, and while she may not be in her prime anymore she’s still better than all the rest. Zhang is right up there with Shevchenko as one of the greats, but she hasn’t faced someone as complete as Shevchenko in her career. This fight should be a very closely contested title fight where Shevchenko just does enough to edge Zhang out on the judge’s scorecards to defend her flyweight title yet again.”
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales
- HayJive – Michael Morales
“I’m taking the dog here in what I think is kind of a 50-50 fight. Brady either gets his grappling going or the size and wrestling abilities of Morales forces a stand up fight that Brady does not want.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Sean Brady
“I think the wrestling will help Brady win a lot of minutes in this spot. This will by far be the toughest fight of Morales’s career.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Michael Morales
“While Brady’s grappling is elite, I do think Morales has the physical attributes to keep this fight standing, making it hard for Brady to keep him in the ground, while having the ability to create more damage on the feet.”
- Corrie – Sean Brady
“Michael Morales, as talented as he is, hasn’t faced a grappling threat like Sean Brady, someone who can chain takedowns, smother with control time, and drown you over rounds. This sport is all about levels, and Brady feels like the rightful side here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Sean Brady
“Michael Morales has been a one-man wrecking crew during his time in the UFC. However, he takes a gigantic step up in competition, taking on the surging No. 1-ranked welterweight Sean Brady. Morales does come from a wrestling back and is massive for the division, but he’s yet to face anyone with the caliber of grappling as Brady. If Brady can land the takedowns early and zap the cardio of Morales, we could see a mid-round finish for the Philadelphia native.”
Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates
- HayJive – Carlos Prates
“If Edwards doesn’t come in with a grappler heavy gameplan I don’t see him winning this. Prates is the much more dangerous striker and Leon seems to be on the decline.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Carlos Prates
“This seems like the passing of the torch. Leon’s been rocked by way less powerful guys.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Carlos Prates
“While Leon Edwards has technical skills and solid grappling, Edwards doesn’t do well when dealing with consistent hunting and forward pressure, as seen in his fights against Belal and Brady, who were grapplers, though still carried that never ending pressure.”
- Corrie – Carlos Prates
“If Leon tries to wrestle, Carlos can absolutely hang in the grappling. But if Leon goes back to hisusual patient, pick-your-shots striking style, Prates’ Muay Thai is going to give him real problems so to me, Carlos has way more upside here, and while Leon’s handled grapplers well, Prates is arguably one of the best pure strikers he’ll have ever faced and ultimately, I don’t put a ton of stock into Leon’s past wins since a lot of them feel a little cheap to me, so I’m leaning Prates.”
- The Fight Analyst – Carlos Prates
“Leon Edwards has now lost two in a row for the first time in his UFC career as he comes into a career-defining matchup against the dangerous Carlos Prates. Outside the fluke headkick KO of Kamaru Usman, Edwards hasn’t had a finish since Peter Sabotta back in March 2018. Unless Edwards turns into a D1 wrestler who also has a BJJ black belt, he’s going to have a hard time striking with Prates. Prates comes in there, presses forward, and puts Edwards away inside two rounds.”
Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
- HayJive – Beneil Dariush
“I fully accept that Dariush could get chinned here, but if he doesn’t, Dariush is the better grappler and much more proven fighter at a higher level.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Benoit Saint-Denis
“I just feel the pressure of BSD will be too much. Benny has taken some damage in the last few years.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Benoit Saint-Denis
“Dariush has been knocked down three times in his last three fights, while being elite with his BJJ defense. BSD seems more patient and will opt for a more calculated gameplan, which will be keeping this one standing.”
- Corrie – Benoit Saint-Denis
“BSD is an animal who overwhelms guys, eats damage, and just keeps marching forward. Benny isn’t quite that anymore; getting dropped by Moicano in Round 1 only added to the durability concerns I’ve had for a while. I’m siding with BSD here, but honestly, I like the under the most.”
- The Fight Analyst – Benoit Saint-Denis
“Benoit Saint-Denis is on the rise while Beneil Dariush is on the decline at this stage of their careers. While Dariush is still a hard out for anyone, his chin issues have plagued him mightily in recent fights. He may be able to fend off the grappling, but Saint-Denis’ underrated power will sit Dariush down, putting him away early in this fight to extend his winning ways.”
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