Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 329
UFC 329 lands Saturday, July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, headlined by Conor McGregor’s long-awaited return against Max Holloway in a welterweight rematch 13 years removed from their first bout. McGregor (22-6) hasn’t fought since 2021, and questions about ring rust loom large against the sharper, higher-volume Holloway (27-9), who thrives on output and durability.
The co-main features a stylistic clash of styles as Paddy Pimblett’s heavy pressure meets Benoit Saint Denis’s explosive, finish-hunting aggression at lightweight, a fight unlikely to reach the scorecards.
Cory Sandhagen runs it back with Mario Bautista at bantamweight, avenging a 2019 submission loss with elite footwork and volume striking now on his side. Brandon Royval’s scrambling, finish-seeking flyweight style tests rising prospect Lone’er Kavanagh’s composure, while King Green versus Terrance McKinney opens the main card with near-guaranteed violence given both men’s finishing tendencies.
This is a five-fight main card loaded with finish potential, veteran intrigue, and a genuine crossroads bout in the main event.
Who do our experts like to get their hands raised in these matchups?
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
HayJive – Max Holloway
- “I’ll take Max Holloway in the main event. McGregor is coming off a five-year layoff, a major injury, and there just isn’t much reason to believe he can turn back the clock here. Holloway has the cardio edge, activity edge, and has been fighting the much better competition. This feels like a clear Holloway spot.”
Nolan – Max Holloway
- “I’ve got to take the active fighter here. Conor’s been gone a long 5 years after a devastating injury and a lot of partying. Max has great cardio if this gets extended as well.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Conor McGregor
- “Bold play, but I can see him managing the power and pressure well in R1, adding to being far more suitable at 170 than Max Holloway.”
The Fight Analyst – Max Holloway
- “It’s really hard to fathom that Conor McGregor is going to turn back time this weekend after a five-year hiatus and beat someone of the caliber of Max Holloway. I fully expect McGregor to look crisp early, but Holloway will pour on the pace and pressure, drowning McGregor late for the finish.”
Austin Swaim – Max Holloway
- “I don’t doubt that we’ll see an improved version of Conor from the one who fought Poirier, but Max Holloway’s volume, pace, and underrated grappling defense (against those who aren’t Do Bronx) are a brutal package to top when you haven’t fought in five years. I think the Hawaiian outpoints McGregor.”
Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis
HayJive – Benoit Saint Denis
- “I’ll take Benoit Saint-Denis, but I don’t love the fight. It feels chaotic, and anything can happen, but BSD should be the better minute-winner. If he can avoid getting caught or finished in wild exchanges, he should be able to win enough of the fight to get his hand raised.”
Nolan – Paddy Pimblett
- “Everyone’s back to doubting Paddy, even though he’s done nothing but win up until the Gaethje fight, and Gaethje is now the undisputed champ. Paddy can hurt BSD and rack up damage as well.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Paddy Pimblett
- “There will be a considerable discrepancy on the ground and I can see Paddy taking advantage of it.”
The Fight Analyst – Benoit Saint Denis
- “Benoit Saint Denis comes in on an impressive four-fight finish streak meanwhile, Paddy Pimblett is coming off a one-sided title loss to Justin Gaethje. While Pimblett is opportunistic and has the ability to catch BSD in a scramble, it’s the power, pressure, and grappling of BSD that will be far too much for ‘The Baddy’ to overcome.”
Austin Swaim – Benoit Saint Denis
- “I can’t ignore Pimblett’s haphazard takedown defense in this matchup. I think there’s a lot of hope about Paddy’s ability to offer up dangerous submissions or find Saint Denis’ chin, but it is hope when you look at the hairy moments and cardio problems against Jared Gordon or an aging Tony Ferguson.”
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
HayJive – Cory Sandhagen
- “I’ll take Cory Sandhagen by a slim margin. Bautista will likely be the more aggressive fighter, but Sandhagen is the more technical striker and should be able to outpoint him over 15 minutes.”
Nolan – Cory Sandhagen
- “I understand the love on Mario this week and he’s a great fighter, but Cory has so many weapons striking to where I think he will land bigger and flashier shots. I also think his grappling defense is good enough to keep it where he wants.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Mario Bautista
- “Since their first fight, I believe Bautista is the one that has evolved more, and given his style, he can slow down Cory, who at times struggles to impose his strategy if there is pushback.”
The Fight Analyst – Mario Bautista
- “This should be a great scrap in this rematch between Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista. Both fighters have progressed immensely since their first encounter, but I think Bautista has the better process coming into the rematch. His pressure boxing and wrestling will keep Sandhagen’s back against the cage as he will be able to wear Sandhagen down, grinding out a decision victory.”
Austin Swaim – Mario Bautista
- “Sandhagen has a ton of confidence in his wrestling defense and ability to survive positions, but there aren’t many guys giving up 27 takedowns in a three-fight stretch. I think it’s a physiological problem for him when Mario is an efficient striker and underrated wrestler — and one who has probably yearned for years to get this win back.”
Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
HayJive – Lone’er Kavanagh
- “I’ll take Kavanagh here. Royval has taken a lot of damage, and he doesn’t feel like he’s at the best point in his career. Kavanagh is young, fast, sharp, and has good eyes in the pocket. I think he can land the bigger shots and potentially find a finish.”
Nolan – Lone’er Kavanagh
- “TLonnie has looked very dialed in since his loss to Charles Johnson and I believe that loss allowed him to learn and grow. Royval has been in a lot of wars and taken a lot of damage to where I think the shots from Lone’er will hurt him and amount damage.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Lone’er Kavanagh
- “Royval is one of the most durable fighters at flyweight, though the durability will be tested by Kavanagh who will contain himself in order to manage the gas tank.”
The Fight Analyst – Lone’er Kavanagh
- “Lone’er Kavanagh made the most of his short-notice call-up to fight former champion Brandon Moreno in Mexico City, beating him over five rounds at altitude. That should get him ready for a high-octane battle against Brandon Royval. While Royval is dangerous, he’s susceptible to calf kicks and doesn’t have the best defense. If Kavanagh can stay composed, he can keep climbing the flyweight rankings with a win at UFC 329.”
Austin Swaim – Brandon Royval
- “I do understand the narrative that Royval’s all-action style might have left his chin in the dust, but Manel Kape and Josh Van are the gold standard of this division. Lone’er Kavanagh put on a solid display against Moreno, but I don’t trust his gas tank in a high-paced fight, and this is the most potent submission threat he’s faced.”
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
HayJive – Terrance McKinney
- “I’ll take Terrance McKinney, but he has to get it done early. If the fight extends, he could be in trouble, but Green is 39 and can be finished on the feet or the ground. McKinney’s speed, power, and explosiveness early should give him a real chance to find the finish.”
Nolan – Terrance McKinney
- “McKinney is very long with his strikes. He’s extremely explosive and has grappling as well. Bobby’s hard to hit, but if McKinney can connect I believe he hurts him badly.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Terrance McKinney
- “McKinney’s aggressive presence will be the difference maker, able to find Green’s chin early, drowning him, leaving little space for recovery.”
The Fight Analyst – King Green
- “We have some bad blood kicking things off on the main card between King Green and Terrance McKinney. McKinney is going to come out hot, looking for the finish early, and it will be up to Green to weather the early storm. If Green is able to utilize his experience to keep himself safe, he should eventually land something big on McKinney and put him away late round 1.”
Austin Swaim – Terrance McKinney
- “King Green has largely found himself in trouble because, against bombers, he is very willing to concede the center because of innate trust in his eyes and feet. That’s a horrible idea against McKinney, who aims to roll downhill as part of the most dangerous two minutes lightweight can offer. I’m calling a club and sub here.”
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