Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Winnipeg

 

Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Winnipeg

The Octagon finally returns to the “Great Fight North” this Saturday as UFC Winnipeg takes over the Canada Life Centre for the first time since 2017.

In the main event, we have a classic “gatekeeper vs. rising star” crossroads at welterweight. Former title challenger Gilbert “Durinho” Burns is looking to snap a skid and prove he still belongs among the elite. Across from him stands Canada’s own Mike Malott. “Captain Canada” has the grappling and explosive power to end this early, but he’ll need to navigate the world-class BJJ and veteran savvy of a desperate Burns.

The co-main event is a massive sleeper for “Fight of the Night” as Kyler Phillips meets Charles Jourdain. Expect a high-paced striking chess match where Jourdain’s hometown energy clashes with Phillips’ creative movement. Also on the main card, a high-stakes flyweight clash sees Jasmine Jasudavicius (#7) battle Karine Silva (#9) in a bout that could easily determine the next title contender.

With Canadian favorites like former Bellator vet Mandel Nallo making their debut and Thiago Moises providing a stiff test for prospect Gauge Young, this card is perfectly built for the rowdy Winnipeg crowd. Expect fireworks and plenty of momentum shifts.

With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Winnipeg.

 

Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott

HayJive – Gilbert Burns

• “I’ll take Gilbert Burns here. It’s a bit of a biased pick, but this feels like a step down in competition. Burns has struggled recently, but this is a spot where he can bounce back and get it done.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Gilbert Burns

• “Mallott needs an early finish or else Gilbert could make this a super tough fight. 5 rounds might favor Gilbert.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Gilbert Burns

• “I believe Malott is solid, though not solid enough to be ranked Top 15. Burns will have the 5 Round Experience and psychological edge to find the takedown entries on Malott. “

The Fight Analyst – Gilbert Burns

• “I truly believe Gilbert Burns still has some fight left in him, and that is enough for me to believe he can get past Mike Malott. While Malott is skilled, Burns is just a bit better everywhere, and if Burns were to lose on Saturday, this will be his first loss to an unranked opposition at 170 lbs.”

Austin Swaim – Gilbert Burns

• “This is a shameless ploy to try and get a Canadian ranked, but Durinho Burns’ decline can’t possibly be confirmed considering the murderer’s row he’s faced. Burns’ takedown D is excellent, and I think he’s got the more powerful strikes at distance. This is a tough matchup for Malott if the Brazilian has anything left in the tank.”

 

Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain

HayJive – Charles Jourdain

• “I don’t love the matchup, as Kyler Phillips is a very solid fighter, but I give the cardio edge to Jourdain. If this extends, I think his pace and striking can start to take over.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Charles Jourdain

• “Charles has better cardio, sharp striking, and has found a home in this division. The guillotine will be useful while defending takedowns.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Charles Jourdain

• “Phillips struggles with forward pressure and can’t be explosive if someone is continuously attempting to take him down. Meanwhile, Jourdain will be looking for submissions. “

The Fight Analyst – Kyler Phillips

• “This should be a fun fight between these two bantamweight contenders. I truly believe Kyler Phillips is still that dude, and his elite speed and striking will cause havoc against Charles Jourdain, who might have power, but is still stationary on the feet. If Phillips can avoid a big shot, he could potentially outstrike Jourdain here to a big victory.”

Austin Swaim – Kyler Phillips

• “Kyler Phillips’ only weakness is his cardio. He’s won all 9 first rounds in UFC, and that’s truly when Jourdain’s guillotine threat is at its max. I just can’t help but think the MMA Lab product is better everywhere if he’s got enough gas to win 10 minutes.”

 

Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert

HayJive – Mandel Nallo

• “Slight lean toward Mandel Nalo here. He brings real danger, especially early. If a finish doesn’t come, this could slow down, but I’ll take Nalo to get it done in his debut.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Mandel Nallo

• “I think Nallo’s firepower and accuracy will help him land more damage in a fight that should play out on the feet. Nallo has a lot of experience regardless of the fact this is his debut.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mandel Nallo

• “Nallo looks to have more momentum, and despite making his debut at an older age, he’s going to have a speed advantage, especially on the feet.”

The Fight Analyst – Mandel Nallo

• “While Mandel Nallo may not be a household name, he comes into his debut with a ton of experience. He’s just got the more polished striking and much better ground game that’s just going to give someone like Jai Herbert, who’s been slumping a ton of trouble, as he walks away with a UFC debut victory.”

Austin Swaim – Mandel Nallo

• “Anytime Jai Herbert has faced a bonafide submission threat, he’s gotten wrapped — if not knocked out first. Due to slick back takes and underrated power, this feels like a friendly landing spot for Nallo’s debut in his home country. ”
  

 

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva

HayJive – Jasmine Jasudavicius

• “I like Jasmine Jasudavicius here. Her cardio and wrestling should be the difference, especially if she avoids early danger. If she settles in, she can take over and potentially find a late finish.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Jasmine Jasudavicius

• “Jasmine will have the desire to get back in the win column after getting close to the title shot. I think her pace and pressure will overwhelm Silva later in the fight leading to a late finish or unanimous decision.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jasmine Jasudavicius

• “There’s a grappling advantage for Jasudavicious here, as we’ve seen Silva get controlled on the mat.”

The Fight Analyst – Jasmine Jasudavicius

• “I don’t expect Karine Silva to have much success defending takedowns against Jasmine Jasudavicius. Silva’s putrid 21% takedown defense will be on full display as Jasudavicius just dominates her on the mat en route to a decision victory.”

Austin Swaim – Karine Silva

• “Jas’ betting price is out of control. Karine Silva’s cardio warts and takedown D issues are known, but she’s the more skilled and powerful striking threat. A striking-heavy approach should help Silva’s cardio, and it’s an area I expect the Fighting Nerds have helped her improve.”
  

 

Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young

HayJive – Gauge Young

• “I’ll take Gage Young. I like the youth, and while the grappling could be a concern, I’m not convinced Moises will fully control those exchanges. If it stays competitive, Young has a good path to win.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Gauge Young

• “I’ve gone back and forth on this, but Young is getting better and striking will give him chances to hurt Moises. I think his grappling defense will be strong enough to get to the feet when needed.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Thiago Moises

• “Experience and grappling advantage. I do believe Moises is being slightly overlooked in this fight.”

The Fight Analyst – Thiago Moises

• “Gauge Young is going to take a vet lesson this weekend against Thiago Moises. Moises is still only 31 years old, he’s a BJJ World Champion, has thunderous leg kicks, and has the power to stop Young in his tracks. Unless he pulls a Jared Gordon, it’s going to be a tough outing for him this weekend as he drops to 1-2 inside the Octagon.”

Austin Swaim – Thiago Moises

• “I think I have to trust the inconsistent UFC vet in a fight of unreliable commodities. Gauge Young’s upside seems to be a volume-based decision, but Moises has shown legitimate power and incredibly submission skills whenever he’s fought unproven competition.”

Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa

HayJive – Marcio Barbosa

• “Barbosa should have the edge early with his power. Feels like a spot where he can come out fast and find a KO.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Marcio Barbosa

• “Marcio has great power and aggressiveness. Buzukja doesn’t fight as well when being backed up and I think that’s what will happen here.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Marcio Barbosa

• “Making his UFC debut, I believe that he will have a power advantage here.”

The Fight Analyst – Marcio Barbosa

• “Marcio Barbosa is an absolute powerhouse, and he showed that with his first-round demolition of Damon Wilson on the Contender Series. This should be a barnburner of a matchup where Dennis Buzukja is going to take a ton of damage until he gets finished by Barbosa under 1.5 rounds.”

Austin Swaim – Marcio Barbosa

• “Dennis Buzukja has been badly hurt in 3 of his 4 UFC appearances, and Marcio Barbosa is a compact powerhouse that showed huge power on DWCS. I trust him to penetrate Buzukja’s 48% striking D with a massive bomb sooner than later.

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