Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Baku
The UFC makes its second annual trip to Baku, Azerbaijan on Saturday, as the National Gymnastics Arena hosts a loaded fight night headlined by a lightweight clash with real rankings implications.
No. 11 Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev squares off with No. 15 Manuel “El Loco” Torres in a five-round main event, and the Azerbaijani crowd will be rocking behind their home favorite — but Torres arrives as a live dog. Fiziev has gone just 1-4 in his last five, most recently getting knocked out by Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 325 in January, and a highlight-reel finish may be the only way he claws back into the top 10. Torres, meanwhile, has back-to-back Performance of the Night bonuses, including a first-round KO of Grant Dawson last December, and has finished every single UFC opponent he’s faced.
If the co-main event goes more than 90 seconds, consider it a surprise. Shara “Bullet” Magomedov returns from an 11-month MMA layoff to face the acrobatic Michel Pereira, and both men are physically incapable of fighting a boring fight. The rest of the card rounds out nicely, with local hero Nazim Sadykhov looking to go 2-for-2 in Baku against Matheus Camilo, flyweight contenders Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson throwing down, and a tasty middleweight scrap between heavy-handed Ikram Aliskerov and Brunno Ferreira.
Who do our experts like to get their hands raised in these matchups?
Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres
HayJive – Rafael Fiziev
- “I’ll take Rafael Fiziev in the main event. He just needs to fight a smart fight, avoid the big shots early, and drag Torres into deeper waters. Torres throws everything into his punches, but that style becomes harder to rely on as the level of competition rises. Fiziev’s experience and technical striking should allow him to take over as the fight progresses.”
Nolan – Rafael Fiziev
- “Fiziev has the experience, and is still a great striker which can give Torres problems. Torres has been KO’d by guys with less power.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Rafael Fiziev
- “This fight extends itself to the later rounds where we see Fiziev’s calculated striking make a difference.”
The Fight Analyst – Manuel Torres
- “This is a sizable step up for Torres but he is getting Fiziev at the right time. Fiziev is coming off a nasty KO loss roughly six months ago and now faces another heavy hitter. If Torres can get past the kicks and get off on Fiziev early, he should put him away.”
Austin Swaim – Manuel Torres
- “At some point, Manuel Torres’ all-action style is going to cost him. An increasingly fragile, 33-year-old Fiziev, who struggles in pure boxing range, doesn’t seem to be that ideal candidate to make it happen. I do think the fighter from Mexico is making technical strides in the gym we just really can’t see because of his small sample size.”
Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira
HayJive – Shara Magomedov
- “I think the betting line is a bit wide, but I still lean toward Shara Magomedov. Pereira has looked more hesitant lately, and I expect Magomedov’s footwork and volume to steadily outpoint him over 15 minutes.”
Nolan – Shara Magomedov
- “Shara has been durable and I believe will hold the significant cardio edge. Not to mention he’s fighting closer to home here.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Shara Magomedov
- “I am still not fully convinced of Michel Pereira’s commitment and this is a perfect fight for Shara to put on a statement.”
The Fight Analyst – Shara Magomedov
- “Pereira isn’t the fighter we once saw back at 170 lbs. He is visibly slower and still has cardio issues at 185 lbs. If Magomedov can avoid the big shots early, he should be able to just out volume Pereira to a wide decision or potentially put him away late.”
Austin Swaim – Michel Pereira
- “This betting line is atrocious for a guy, Magomedov, who routinely fails to separate .Michel Pereira’s cardio is poor and would be made worse by a wrestling-heavy approach, but he’s also capable of mixing it up from the best kickboxing package that Shara has faced outside of Michael Page. I see this as a grimy decision where “Demolidor” can absolutely get the nod.”
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo
HayJive – Nazim Sadykhov
- “I’ll take Nazim Sadykhov here. He tends to start slowly, but I trust his cardio, pace, and overall output more than Camilo’s. As he settles into the fight, I expect him to make the necessary reads and gradually pull away.”
Nolan – Nazim Sadykhov
- “Nazim is the experienced fighter with better cardio. He’s shown to be durable and can use that edge in rounds 2-3.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Nazim Sadykhov
- “The homecourt advantage is going to make the main difference in this fight, propelling Sadykhov to find the finish.”
The Fight Analyst – Nazim Sadykhov
- “This should be an absolute banger in the lightweight division between Sadykhov and Camilo. While I have a ton of praise for Camilo, this is a tough out for him. Sadykhov just seems to be a bit better everywhere and has the power to finish Camilo. Ultimately, Sadykhov cracks Camilo putting him away midway through the fight.”
Austin Swaim – Nazim Sadykhov
- “After watching Matheus Camilo throughout the week, I just think Sadykhov’s grappling is too problematic for him unless the Brazilian is able to put him out early. Camilo has significant cardio problems, and the Azerbaijani fighter hasn’t given up on himself often despite facing adversity in six straight fights. This might be a good live betting spot on Nazim.”
Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson
HayJive – Asu Almabayev
- “The line is a little wider than I’d like, but I still favor Asu Almabayev. His wrestling should allow him to rack up control time in the clinch and on the mat. As long as his cardio holds up, he has a clear path to winning rounds.”
Nolan – Asu Almabayev
- “The wrestling and explosiveness is something that can score points here against Charles. I really think the wrestling level will be the difference in this spot.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Charles Johnson
- “How many times have we seen Johnson do this? Perfect fight for him to be patient, defend and find his shots.”
The Fight Analyst – Charles Johnson
- “There is one thing you do when it comes to Charles Johnson and that is bet him as a big underdog and fade him as a favorite and this no different here against Almabayev. While Almabayev is going to have the grappling advantage, Johnson has been notoriously hard to control on the mat and he will have the size, speed, and power advantages on the feet. If Johnson can avoid getting controlled on the mat he should be able to out strike Almabayev to a decision victory.”
Austin Swaim – Charles Johnson
- “Asu Almabayev’s spam wrestling attack can’t possibly continue to win in dominant fashion. We saw Johnson thrive in this sort of matchup against a bigger Azat Maksum, and he’s really improved his ability to sprawl and scramble. This will be another close fight, but I’ll take the striker to squeak it out on the scorecards. My model has Johnson 46.3% likely to win.”
Brunno Ferreira vs. Ikram Aliskerov
HayJive – Ikram Aliskerov
- “Bruno Ferreira is dangerous early and carries real knockout power, but I think Aliskerov’s wrestling is the difference. If he mixes in his grappling, he should be able to wear Ferreira down and take control as the fight goes on.”
Nolan – Ikram Aliskerov
- “Ikram has some power and that’s been Brunno’s downfall. At some point I think Ikram catches him with a shot to end the fight.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Brunno Ferreira
- “Ferreira is an underdog because when Ikram looks good, he’s amazing, but his opposition level still lacks while Ferreira has essentially fought every type of opponent.”
The Fight Analyst – Ikram Aliskerov
- “After taking his first loss in his UFC career against Robert Whittaker he bounced back with wins against Andre Muniz and Jun Yong Park. Now, going for three in a row he gets the dangerous Brunno Ferreira, who while has the power and underrated grappling chops will be out matched here. Things will be dicey early until Aliskerov lands his takedowns and finishes Ferreira shortly thereafter, making in three wins in a row.”
Austin Swaim – Ikram Aliskerov
- “If you watch Ferreira’s fight with Abus Magomedov, this one opposite a Khabib disciple seems perilous. Overall, “The Hulk” has crushed a lot of cans, but I don’t trust his cardio, takedown defense, or per-minute efficiency. It feels like he’s a knockout-or-bust proposition against Aliskerov.”
Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
HayJive – Michal Oleksiejczuk
- “This is a competitive fight, but I’ll side with Michał Oleksiejczuk. Abus Magomedov could find an early submission if he gets the fight to the ground, but if he doesn’t, Oleksiejczuk’s pressure and boxing should force mistakes and allow him to find a finish.”
Nolan – Abus Magomedov
- “Abus has a significant size advantage and could use the grappling to give himself an edge. His striking is good enough to compete on the feet as well.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Michal Oleksiejczuk
- “Abus has disappointed before, usually when people create hope for him and this is the scenario for him to do that again.”
The Fight Analyst – Abus Magomedov
- “Abus has had a mixed bag of results in the UFC and gets to go against another heavy hitter in Oleksiejczuk. While Oleksiejczuk defensive grappling has seem to have gotten better since dropping to 185, he has yet to face someone like Magomedov. Expect Magomedov to get a takedown early and dominate Oleksiejczuk there eventually finishing him within two rounds.”
Austin Swaim – Abus Magomedov
- “I genuinely wish I didn’t have to pick this fight. Have it modeled nearly 50-50, and it’ll all come down to which recent improvement is real: Abus’ cardio or Oleksiejczuk’s grappling defense. I think the Polish fighter hasn’t faced a takedown threat in seven fights, so I am leaning toward the larger fighter being able to mix it up enough to get the nod.”
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