Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Rio
UFC Rio returns to Brazil with a stacked card headlined by former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira squaring off against Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot at Farmasi Arena this Saturday. Oliveira, fighting in Brazil for the first time in five years, aims to rebound after a knockout loss to Ilia Topuria and reclaim his top contender status. Standing in his way is Gamrot, an elite wrestler who most recently beat L’udovit Klein and is eager to elevate himself into the lightweight title mix with a signature win over “Do Bronx”.
The co-main event features former flyweight king Deiveson Figueiredo, who now competes at bantamweight, facing the powerful Montel Jackson in a pivotal bout for both men’s title aspirations. Vicente Luque squares off with Joel Alvarez in a welterweight firefight expected to deliver non-stop action. The main card also features hard-hitting heavyweights Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto, alongside Ricardo Ramos taking on Kaan Ofli at featherweight. Prelims highlight top prospects and veteran Brazilians, promising electric home crowd energy.
With hometown legends returning and critical divisional stakes, UFC Rio promises fireworks as Oliveira battles Gamrot in front of passionate fans eager for another legendary night in Rio.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Rio.
Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
- HayJive – Charles Oliveira
“I am terrible at picking Gamrot fights, but I’m going to take Oliveira here. Gamrot has never faced a sub attempt in the UFC and has been knocked down in 5 of his fights.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Charles Oliveira
“I love Charles in Brazil, against a guy who’s best days are past him. Gamrot might get his energy zapped and this is a 5 rounder.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Charles Oliveira
“Oliveira’s threats on the feet are too much for Gamrot to handle, while Gamrot’s excellent wrestling isn’t enough to defeat Oliveira. “
- Corrie – Mateusz Gamrot
“Honestly I don’t lean super hard either way here, Charles is still dangerous everywhere but that quick turnaround after the Topuria KO makes me nervous about how well his chin’s recovered, and truly if it ever will for that matter, and gamrot’s wrestling pace plus control could take some good top control time when it hits the mat. That said, my favorite play is just fight-to-end-in-KO because both guys bring chaos, but if I had to pick, I’ll side with Gamrot ever so slightly by smarter gameplan, fresher chin, and way better gas tank.”
- The Fight Analyst – Mateusz Gamrot
“Oliveira already talking about retirement especially after taking the worst loss of his career is very concerning. He has struggled against grapple-heavy fighters in the past, and if Gamrot can avoid getting caught on the feet on the mat he’s the round winner with the better cardio. Gamrot outworks Oliveira throughout the fight to come away with the biggest win of his career.”
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
- HayJive – Deiveson Figueiredo
“If Figgy isn’t completely washed, he can definitely win this fight. However this is very low confidence, Montel is dangerous. I just don’t think his strength of schedule warrants him to be this big of a favorite.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Montel Jackson
“Figgy’s injury concerns me. Montel has the ability to rack up a lot of damage in this spot.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Deiveson Figueiredo
“Wrestling will be the hidden tool for this fight, as Figueiredo’s takedowns and entries are being overlooked.”
- Corrie – Montel Jackson
“Jackson’s on a HUGE win streak in the prime of his career and has never looked better than he does right now and given the fact that Figgy is starting to slow down, coming off of that knee injury, and just getting up there in age… But I think Montel Jackson’s power and ability to out work Figgy will make the difference here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Montel Jackson
“A knee injury to an aging fighter like Figueiredo is very worrisome going into this fight against a massive bantamweight like Jackson. I don’t excect Figueiredo to have success in the grappling against Jackson which means he’s going to be at distance where he has a massive disadvantage at range against a long & rangy KO artist (5’10” 75” reach). This is the coming out party for Jackson as it comes out there and styles on Figueiredo to get the biggest win of his career.”
Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez
- HayJive – Joel Alvarez
“This should be Alvarez all day, a pure finisher facing a weathered fighter who’s been finished in all 3 of his last 3 losses.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Joel Alvarez
“Joel is going to be fasted and more dangerous at this point in their careers. I’m not confident Luque can withstand the damage here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Vicente Luque
“EXPERIENCE MATTERS.”
- Corrie – Joel Alvarez
“He’s dangerous everywhere, up a weight class here though, but has knockout power on top of elite grappling, and he’s coming off that nasty knee KO over Drakkar Klose and as Luque fan, his durability feels like it’s caught up to him and being here against a guy this physical feels rough… So yeah, Joel Alvarez by having another mouth to feed soon!”
- The Fight Analyst – Joel Alvarez
“Alvarez is just as dangerous at 170 as he was at 155. He was massive at lightweight and that size translates into the welterweight division. He’s dangerous everywhere this fight goes and he’s taking on Luque at the best time. Luque’s durability is a major concern, expect Alvarez to crack Luque at some point to announce himself in the welterweight division.”
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
- HayJive – Jhonata Diniz
“Slightly leaning Diniz here, but if Pinto chooses to grapple I can see him taking it.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Mario Pinto
“I think the patience of Pinto will find openings for big counters and the right hand to hurt Diniz.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jhonata Diniz
“While Pinto is a great prospect, him almost getting finished by Austin Lane doesn’t project confidence, especially against a technical and powerful hitter in Diniz.”
- Corrie – Mario Pinto
“Pinto doesn’t throw much but his accuracy is fire and it’s important to note that this was intentional in his debut in the sense that he talked about making sure every punch was 100% perfect, which he sense has been training to release that limited thinking method since training with Tom Aspinall. Diniz is probably the smarter choice because of his volume and experience but Pinto has great counters and I think his speed and precision will give him the edge here so I’ll take the dog shot.”
- The Fight Analyst – Jhonata Diniz
“Experience will matter in this fight and Diniz comes in with a ton of it not only inside the octagon but also in kickboxing before his transition to MMA. Pinto can certainly land one big shot and get the job done but it will be technical striking, especially the kicks, of Diniz that will wear down Pinto until he lands that one big punch and puts him away.”
Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli
- HayJive – Ricardo Ramos
“Ramos has much more UFC Experience, however he’s notoriously a guy that drops the ball. Ofli could find a sub on the ground, but if he doesn’t I think Ramos takes it.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Ricardo Ramos
“I’m not convinced Ofli is UFC level. Ramos is very dangerous early and has the crowd backing him here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Ricardo Ramos
“Ofli wants this fight on the mat, Ramos will oblige, considering he has 7 SUB wins.”
- Corrie – Ricardo Ramos
“Ofli technically could catch Ramos here, he’s got two guillotines on his record and Ramos has a bad habit of leaving his neck out, so that sub prop might be worth a sprinkle just to play around with. That said, I’ve gotta pick Ramos to win as the more proven guy at this level, has the better grappling overall, and should be able to control the pace if he doesn’t get caught slipping again.”
- The Fight Analyst – Ricardo Ramos
“Ofli certainly hasn’t had one easy fight in his UFC thus far and it doesn’t get any easier against Ramos at UFC Rio. Ramos is a submission specialist with KO power on the feet. It will be exceptionally hard for Ofli to implement his wrestle-heavy gameplan without putting himself in danger and on the Ramos has the power to crack Ofli much like Mairon Santos did. Ultimately, Ramos is too much for Ofli putting him away midway through the fight to get the win.”
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell
- HayJive – Lucas Almeida
“Gonna take the dog here in Almeida, more diverse striker who’s very big for the division. If Aswell doesn’t land a big shot, I think Almeida can compete well here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Lucas Almeida
“Almeida will hold the power edge, and Aswell can be hittable. Love the home crowd underdogs this week.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Lucas Almeida
“In home court, I trust Almeida to fulfill his potential and find the finish.”
- Corrie – Michael Aswell
“BIG fan of this kid’s volume…. Lucas hits hard, but he’s been hittable and fades when guys can match his pace but I also feel like I’ve seen him struggle in a lot of different areas when I went back and watched the tape so with Aswell being on the up and up, I think his pressure and output win rounds, so i’ll side with Texas.”
- The Fight Analyst – Michael Aswell
“Almeida will have the diverse striking and power advantages in this fight, but Aswell has shown that he’s durable, has great cardio, and his volume is next to none. We’ve seen Almeida slow down in almost every one of his fights and if he doesn’t put Aswell away early, Aswell’s pace is going to drown Almeida to a late finish and get the first win of his UFC career.”
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