Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 121
UFC Vegas 121 returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, marking the promotion’s homecoming after a six-week road trip, with a five-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
The headliner brings a fascinating generational contrast, as Contender Series standout Raul Rosas Jr., only 21 years old, gets his first UFC main event slot against 39-year-old veteran Raoni Barcelos, an 18-year age gap. Rosas is still developing his overall game but has shown genuine grappling talent and heavy hands for his experience level, while Barcelos brings composure, sharp counters and durability that should test the young prospect’s patience.
The co-main event is arguably the more meaningful bout for the rankings, pitting Norma Dumont against Ailin Perez at bantamweight, a physical style clash that carries real divisional weight. Below that, light heavyweights Luis Hernandez and Sedriques Dumas square off, and the card closes out both season finales of TUF 34: Mehemmedeli Osmanli meets Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu for the bantamweight crown, while Melissa Amaya faces Tina Black for strawweight honors.
With a mix of prospects, veterans and reality-show finalists, UFC Vegas 121 offers a lighter but development-focused night for the promotion’s home crowd.
Who do our experts like to get their hands raised in these matchups?
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos
HayJive – Raoni Barcelos
- “I’ll take Raoni Barcelos in the main event. This is a tough matchup for Raul Rosas Jr., who has primarily been facing opponents he can clearly out-grapple. Barcelos is a legitimate grappler himself with excellent takedown defense and good striking. The age gap is definitely a concern, but I have to side with the more proven and well-rounded fighter here.”
Nolan – Raoni Barcelos
- “Barcelos has the better gas tank and able to dog out fights on the feet. His wrestling and grappling should be good enough to escape bad positions early.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Raul Rosas Jr.
- “The 5 fight win streak from Barcelos is impressive because of age though it’s not as clean as it appears with many close fights and a lot of fights where he does take more cumulative damage than his opponent. In theory, Rosas Jr has power in his hands and with the low finishing upside from Barcelos, I could see him taking more risks.”
The Fight Analyst – Raul Rosas Jr.
- “I truly believe the youth and strength of Raul Rosas Jr. will help him get past the veteran Raoni Barcelos in his first main event fight. He’s going to need to drown Barcelos with his pace and make him work. If he is able to do that Barcelos will start to fade and that is when Rosas Jr. will take over and get the win.”
Austin Swaim – Raoni Barcelos
- “This is a galactic step up for “Chiwiwis”, who has largely been protected since the CeeRod loss. Overall, his six wins are 21-33 in UFC with an average takedown defense of 51%. Barcelos, at 11-4, has an 87% takedown D and is fighting well despite pushing 40. The wrong guy is favored here even if the Mexico native’s athleticism and age wins out.”
Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez
HayJive – Ailin Perez
- “I’ll take Ailin Perez in the co-main event. This feels like a pretty straightforward matchup where her ability to get takedowns will be the deciding factor. In the smaller cage at the Apex, I’m confident Perez can find multiple takedowns, and if she does, I think she’ll be able to control enough of the fight to beat Norma Dumont.”
Nolan – Norma Dumont
- “This is a buy low spot. Norma has better striking and also much better cardio. She has good grappling and strength which should make her competitive in the clinch.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Norma Dumont
- “Norma is more versatile and more firepower on the feet.”
The Fight Analyst – Norma Dumont
- “This is certainly a tough fight to call but if Norma Dumont can stay upright and actually throw volume she should outwork Ailin Perez on the feet to a decision victory.”
Austin Swaim – Ailin Perez
- “At what point do we accept that Ailin Perez might just be very good in this limited division? Her improved standup worked against Karol Rosa, and she’s efficiently gotten takedowns against everyone else. Norma Dumont’s wrestling is just leaky enough to score a couple key takedowns here.”
Luis Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas
HayJive – Luis Hernandez
- “I’ll take Luis Hernandez, although I’m hesitant with the extremely short turnaround after fighting less than two weeks ago. Hernandez has shown great heart, pace, and pressure, which are all things that can give Dumas problems. Dumas may need to find an early finish, because if Hernandez survives the opening exchanges, I expect him to take over as the fight progresses.”
Nolan – Luis Hernandez
- “Hernandez ability to dog it out and grapple should give him an advantage as the fight goes on. Dumas doesn’t like getting hit, and can be subbed as well.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Luis Hernandez
- “Hernandez is simply better”
The Fight Analyst – Luis Hernandez
- “While I am not keen on taking fighters who are fighting on just 48 hours’ notice and also jumping up an extra 20 pounds since their last fight, in this matchup with Luis Hernandez against Sedriques Dumas, I am willing to do so. If Hernandez comes out aggressive like he did on Contender Series he will be putting Dumas away in round 1.
Austin Swaim – Luis Hernandez
- “Luis Hernandez gets a soft landing spot after a wild DWCS performance two weeks ago. His power, pressure, and resolve are all weapons we’ve seen Dumas succumb to in a four-fight skid where he hasn’t seen a seventh minute.”
Mahammadali Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek
HayJive – Mahammadali Osmanli
- “I’ll take Mahammadali Osmanli over Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu. Osmanli is dangerous on the feet and carries a legitimate submission threat on the ground. I expect Akylbek Uulu to have some early wrestling success, but I trust Osmanli to weather those takedowns and eventually take over. Once he gets his offense going, I think he can find either a knockout or a submission.”
Nolan – Mahammadali Osmanli
- “Osmanli has a dominate grappling pedigree. He’s also got the ability to hurt his opponent on the feet as he’s been KO’d 3 times.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Mahammadali Osmanli
- “I think Osmanli’s versatility in the standup will speak volumes while the toughness from his opponent will drag it all 3.”
The Fight Analyst – Mahammadali Osmanli
- “Mahammad Osmanli is truly something special. He’s got the brashness of a Conor McGregor but the style of fighting like a ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley. He will be light years ahead of Ilimbek Akylbek on the feet and as long as he can defend the takedowns and scramble to his feet, Osmanli should be able to land something big on Akylbek to put him away.”
Austin Swaim – Mahammadali Osmanli
- “I don’t know how you leave TUF 34 anything but impressed with Osmanli. The 21-year-old is cool under pressure, well-rounded, and sneaky with the way he can attack submissions from any position. Akylbek has a pure wrestling advantage, but I don’t trust him to go 15 minutes without getting his back taken or reversed for ground-and-pound.”
Tina Black vs. Melissa Amaya
HayJive – Tina Black
- “I’ll take Tina Black. She’s the more experienced fighter and has shown a more developed overall skill set. Amaya is tough and has the ability to weather adversity and make comebacks, but I think Black is skilled enough to prevent that from happening here. I expect her to be the cleaner striker and outwork Amaya on the feet.”
Nolan – Tina Black
- “Black was impressive on TUF. Powerful striking and strong as well. She should be the more physically imposing fighter.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Melissa Amaya
- “I think the fight is closer than odds show. I think Amaya has the ability to mix it up in all aspects of standup.”
The Fight Analyst – Tina Black
- “Tina Black is the former A1 Combat Strawweight Champion and has been on a tear as of late with wins in seven of her last eight fights. She’s got a boatload of high-level experience and has shown her well-roundedness on this season of TUF. She gets matched up with the undefeated Melissa Amaya, who’s got really good wrestling and is as tough as they come; however, this is the first fight for Amaya since she tore some muscles after her semifinal fight with Gigi Canuto. Ultimately, Black comes out there and just does more and outworks Amaya on the feet en route to a decision and the TUF 34 champ.”
Austin Swaim – Tina Black
- “I think the standup advantage for Tina Black is enormous here. Her hooks are much tighter, and she throws well in combination. Amaya’s strategy of essentially waiting until Gigi Canuto got tired won’t work against the Invicta FC veteran, and the American’s pre-TUF competition just was not good.”
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