Southpaw Report: UFC 319

UFC 319 Southpaw Report

Hello and welcome to the ever-popular Southpaw Report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!

Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.

So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.

Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.

UFC 319 offers a slew of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!

Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates

Geoff Neal, who faces fellow southpaw Carlos Prates at UFC 319, is officially 2-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (beating Charlie Ontiveros on the regional scene and Rafael dos Anjos in his most recent UFC affair).

Geoff Neal’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1956342822929641734

Prates, while officially standing at 0-0 against UFC-level southpaws, has encountered this stance before in both his kickboxing and muay Thai careers.

Carlos Prates’ southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1956341454495719842

As I always say in southpaw vs. southpaw affairs, the more acclaimed striker doesn’t always show out the way they’re supposed to on paper. However, after looking at some Prates’ tape from past fights with fellow lefties, I couldn’t help but notice how much more comfortable he looked – particularly from an offensive standpoint.

Although you can say the same about Neal in his last outing opposite Rafael dos Anjos, it’s hard to say with conviction that the American has broken his headhunting ways. It’s also worth noting how easily other lengthy fighters like Stephen Thompson were able to both keep him and range, as well as pivot around him, as I suspect Prates could look like a nightmare matchup in hindsight.

My prediction: Between Neal’s history with lengthy fighters and the fact that Prates appears to be the more skilled and dynamic striker, I can’t say that I disagree with the Brazilian being favored in this spot.

Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura

Kai Asakura, who faces southpaw Tim Elliott, is 0-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws but did face a stance-switching Manel Kape in RIZIN.

Kape only fought the first round of their rematch in southpaw, but appeared to slow Asakura’s output as he looked to kick and counter more than usual.

Kai Asakura’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1956471386106663091

However, as we saw in Asakura’s last fight, the Japanese fighter, despite having a really solid first layer of defense, can start to fall apart when exchanges are extended and he’s aggressively put on his back foot.

My prediction: Although a semi-shocking knockout by Asakura via flying knee wouldn’t surprise me, I’ll take a semi-reluctant flier on the underdog in this show-me spot.

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Olekseijczuk

Gerald Meerschaert, who faces fellow southpaw Michal Olekseijczuk at UFC 319, is 2-4 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Sam Alvey, Bryan Barberena; Losses: Sam Alvey, Krzysztof Jotko, Reinier de Ridder, *Erky Anders).

Gerald Meedschaert’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1956443681621438790

Olekseijczuk, on the other hand, officially stands at 1-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Sam Alvey; Losses: Ovince Saint Preux, Ciao Borralho; No Contest: Khalil Rountree Jr.).

Michal Olekseijczuk’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1956454154618192074

This is the second southpaw vs. southpaw affair on the card, and it should be fireworks from the start.

Meerschaert doesn’t get the respect he deserves for the skills he possesses on the feet, so I hope the samples I provided above can help bring to light some appreciation for the American’s game. That said, there’s no denying that the edge will be strongly in Olekseijczuk’s favor early due to his speed and power.

My prediction: Even though Olekseijczuk icing Meerschaert early is arguably the most likely outcome, I can’t help but pick the more proven and well-versed fighter to survive the early storm en route to victory.

The pick is Meerschaert by submission in Round 2.

I know Elliott is past his prime, but I think that the divisional gatekeeper has enough in the tank to hold the proverbial door one more time. The pick is Elliott by split decision.

Add in Neal’s mileage and past health issues, and I suspect that Prates adds to his highlight reel with another body-knee knockout this weekend.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper

Alexander Hernandez, who faces Chase Hooper at UFC 319, is officially 4-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Jim Miller, Beneil Dariush, *Francisco Trinaldo, Olivier Aubin-Mercier; Losses: Drew Dober).

Alexander Hernandez’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1956503111624974806

Hernandez was super flashy and shifty to start his UFC career, but tough losses and camp changes helped shift his style.

Hernandez’s fundamentals showed measurable improvements when working with Marc Montoya at Factory-X, but he’s since broken off from that camp. Left-sided strikes remain Hernandez’s common culprit.

My Prediction: Although Hernandez taxing Hooper hard with something early isn’t out of the question, I have a hard time backing the underdog in this spot considering his history with both taller fighters and fading down the stretch.

This concludes the southpaw report for UFC 319. Be sure to check back here on UFC fight weeks this report and more.

🔍 Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage.

💰 Want to get in on the action? Visit homeoffight.com/picks to tail all of the Home of Fight expert’s picks & bets each week!

🥊 Content & coverage brought to you by LEGENDZ! Play online Social Casino & LIVE Sports Gambling!