UFC Freedom 250 DFS Projections: Significant Strike, Takedown, Knockdown, and Submission Attempt Props for Topuria vs. Gaethje

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Freedom 250 DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempt projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, taking place on the South Lawn of The White House in Washington, D.C. on Sunday. The fights start at 8:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strikes Projection
Josh Hokit	68.33
Ilia Topuria	60.31
Ciryl Gane	59.66
Justin Gaethje	59.35
Alex Pereira	52.97
Steve Garcia	50.64
Sean O’Malley	44.09
Aiemann Zahabi	43.87
Mauricio Ruffy	36.73
Diego Lopes	32.11
Michael Chandler	31.80
Bo Nickal	25.90
Derrick Lewis	24.60
Kyle Daukaus	22.14

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedowns Projection
Josh Hokit	2.35
Ilia Topuria	1.19
Bo Nickal	1.11
Michael Chandler	0.81
Ciryl Gane	0.59
Kyle Daukaus	0.53
Steve Garcia	0.49
Diego Lopes	0.33
Derrick Lewis	0.31
Aiemann Zahabi	0.19
Justin Gaethje	0.16
Sean O’Malley	0.12
Alex Pereira	0.11
Mauricio Ruffy	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Steve Garcia	1.35
Ilia Topuria	1.10
Alex Pereira	0.76
Mauricio Ruffy	0.70
Justin Gaethje	0.65
Josh Hokit	0.63
Sean O’Malley	0.51
Diego Lopes	0.40
Bo Nickal	0.35
Derrick Lewis	0.34
Aiemann Zahabi	0.29
Michael Chandler	0.25
Ciryl Gane	0.25
Kyle Daukaus	0.22

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Bo Nickal	1.42
Kyle Daukaus	1.20
Ilia Topuria	0.97
Diego Lopes	0.90
Ciryl Gane	0.58
Michael Chandler	0.38
Steve Garcia	0.26
Alex Pereira	0.19
Sean O’Malley	0.15
Mauricio Ruffy	0.00
Justin Gaethje	0.00
Josh Hokit	0.00
Derrick Lewis	0.00
Aiemann Zahabi	0.00

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje DFS Picks and Props to Target

 

Sean O’Malley Under 65.5 Significant Strikes

“Suga” Sean O’Malley can rack up significant strikes in a smash spot. He’s met 230 of them in a three-rounder (against Kris Moutinho) and five-rounder (against Chito Vera).

I — and the model — just don’t trust the circumstances of this step down in competition to Aiemann Zahabi, though. If Zahabi can hang at this level, the Canadian’s 69% striking D is the best inside the bantamweight rankings.

If he can’t, I really don’t trust his chin at all. Zahabi was a knockout victim of Ricardo Ramos (via spinning stuff), and he hasn’t fought a guy with a knockdown rate above 0.70% in his prime, like O’Malley, during his entire career. A frail version of Jose Aldo didn’t count.

O’Malley landed just 48 significant strikes in an ugly decision against Song Yadong. I don’t actually think this is a better matchup to score, and he could test the underdog’s chin. Fading one of the most popular overs on the board is the play.

 

Josh Hokit Over 0.5 Takedowns

Josh Hokit might become Khamzat Chimaev in this fight.

There is simply one path to losing to a 41-year-old Derrick Lewis. It’s wading around at distance and waiting to give him an opening to catch you. That was the fatal error of both Tallison Teixeira and Rodrigo Nascimento.

You wouldn’t know it from Hokit’s last barnburner of a fight against Curtis Blaydes, but the former NFL player’s background is wrestling. That’s how he dominated his bid on Dana White’s Contender Series and provided the foundation to stuff five of Blaydes’ seven takedowns as the smaller guy.

Hokit still attempts 9.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. This is just a 0.67x payout or “goblin”, depending on your DFS source, but it’s a great value in a fight he’ll look to wrestle. I’ve got him -949 to land a takedown based on this projection, and his pace is outstanding. But I disagree with the model’s notion that Lewis might not quit ground-and-pound after the very first one landed.

 

Steve Garcia Over 0.5 Knockdowns

You’re not dreaming. I now have median projected knockdown and submission attempts coming from the model as DFS sites have begun to offer them.

This one seems kind of ridiculous to me. With a 2.36% knockdown rate (KD%), Steve Garcia might be the best power threat below 155 pounds in UFC. He’s landed eight knockdowns in seven fights as a featherweight. Putting this at ostensibly plus money with bonus payouts is a great show of faith in Diego Lopes’ chin that, personally, shouldn’t be granted.

Garcia was doubted in this same position against David Onama and Melquizael Costa, whose historical durability was perceived as an obstacle. He’s 6’0″ at 145 pounds. He’s just huge for this weight class with great boxing combinations.

The fear is that Lopes catches Garcia’s chin before the opposite happens — or the Brazilian’s elite jiu-jitsu makes an appearance. If there’s an extended, multi-minute sequence at a distance, Jean Silva was boxing Diego Lopes’ head off.

The model’s projection implies a -345 chance of a “Mean Machine” knockdown.