UFC Vegas 119 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Vegas 119 DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempt projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs. Horiguchi, taking place at the Meta Apex on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs. Horiguchi DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Michael Aswell Jr.	87.52
Navajo Stirling	59.20
Vinicius Oliveira	55.15
Hyder Amil	53.13
Karol Rosa	51.46
Manel Kape	50.45
Kyoji Horiguchi	46.60
Andre Fili	45.57
Kevin Borjas	43.50
Andre Lima	42.81
Christian Rodriguez	41.06
Ion Cutelaba	40.27
Gaston Bolanos	39.55
Luana Santos	36.72
Allan Nascimento	28.04
Mitch Raposo	24.36

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Mitch Raposo	2.90
Ion Cutelaba	1.68
Luana Santos	1.46
Allan Nascimento	1.43
Andre Fili	1.43
Christian Rodriguez	1.22
Kyoji Horiguchi	1.07
Vinicius Oliveira	0.88
Andre Lima	0.75
Navajo Stirling	0.63
Hyder Amil	0.61
Karol Rosa	0.61
Manel Kape	0.44
Gaston Bolanos	0.34
Michael Aswell Jr.	0.19
Kevin Borjas	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Manel Kape	0.88
Kyoji Horiguchi	0.60
Navajo Stirling	0.50
Michael Aswell Jr.	0.49
Kevin Borjas	0.49
Vinicius Oliveira	0.47
Andre Fili	0.25
Hyder Amil	0.21
Karol Rosa	0.14
Ion Cutelaba	0.13
Mitch Raposo	0.00
Luana Santos	0.00
Allan Nascimento	0.00
Christian Rodriguez	0.00
Andre Lima	0.00
Gaston Bolanos	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Luana Santos	1.01
Allan Nascimento	0.91
Andre Lima	0.90
Christian Rodriguez	0.83
Hyder Amil	0.60
Manel Kape	0.28
Karol Rosa	0.17
Vinicius Oliveira	0.15
Andre Fili	0.15
Ion Cutelaba	0.14
Kyoji Horiguchi	0.09
Navajo Stirling	0.00
Michael Aswell Jr.	0.00
Kevin Borjas	0.00
Mitch Raposo	0.00
Gaston Bolanos	0.00

UFC  Vegas 119: Kape vs. Horiguchi DFS Picks and Props to Target

This has been a frustrating week for DFS props. I wanted to send this out on Wednesday, but we still have very few options beyond significant strikes.

Kevin Borjas Over 32.5 Significant Strikes

Ultimately, I think this is my favorite path to support Kevin Borjas in a fight where the line has me scratching my head.

The gap in competition between his UFC schedule — including Josh Van, Alessandro Costa, and Imanol Rodriguez — and Andre Lima’s just goes to show how damaging the perception of being “better” after the Contender Series can be. Lima struggled with Felipe dos Santos just two fights ago.

Borjas is a rangy, high-volume striker and a quick starter. Lima has been super protective of his gas tank. It’s an interesting dynamic: Lima’s best path to dominating this fight is through his grappling, which would also make him more tired throughout.

The model has this one 54.2% likely to go the distance. Borjas will smash this if that’s the case. I’ve got the Peruvian (43.5) with a higher median significant strikes projection than his Brazilian foe (42.8), which just goes to show this fight should be competitive if Borjas can avoid grappling situations.

Kyoji Horiguchi Over 0.5 Takedowns

The takedown slate is disrespectful to consumers this week. PrizePicks, to their credit, actually got out earlier than normal because Underdog has two poor lines — Melissa Mullins and Luana Santos — that have been the only listings since Wednesday.

Based on 1.5 takedowns being set as a “demon”, this prop is probably like -135 at traditional sportsbooks, and those are still fair odds when projecting Kyoji Horiguchi‘s takedown prop at 1.07.

Most books have this fight favored to go the distance. My model doesn’t (43.7%), but it still projects a median of 14.0. That’s a long time to assume the crafty Japanese technician, who averages 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, doesn’t try to mix things up. Manel Kape’s traditional takedown defense (81%) is excellent, but his ATT product features a variety of sneaky trips that tie well into his striking.

The fear for this prop is an early (T)KO, but we’ve yet to see Horiguchi as much as wobbled in UFC. Kai Asakura knocked him out at 135 pounds in RIZIN, but it’s easy to trust his 63% striking defense to stay safe when Kape’s knockout chances are likely inflated due to a run of poor chins.