UFC Baku DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Baku DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempt projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Baku: Fiziev vs. Torres, taking place at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan on Saturday. The fights start at 9:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Baku: Fiziev vs. Torres DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Jean Matsumoto	68.19
Shara Magomedov	43.04
Manuel Torres	41.59
Michel Pereira	40.93
Charles Johnson	32.24
Andrey Pulyaev	29.73
Rafael Fiziev	28.68
Michal Oleksiejczuk	28.61
Ikram Aliskerov	24.85
Bekzat Almakhan	23.99
Nursulton Ruziboev	21.41
Brunno Ferreira	19.07
Asu Almabayev	17.07
Abus Magomedov	16.38

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Asu Almabayev	3.12
Jean Matsumoto	2.74
Abus Magomedov	1.44
Ikram Aliskerov	1.25
Charles Johnson	0.99
Michel Pereira	0.70
Manuel Torres	0.59
Andrey Pulyaev	0.57
Nursulton Ruziboev	0.40
Rafael Fiziev	0.29
Michal Oleksiejczuk	0.28
Brunno Ferreira	0.27
Shara Magomedov	0.00
Bekzat Almakhan	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Manuel Torres	1.48
Nursulton Ruziboev	0.80
Bekzat Almakhan	0.78
Ikram Aliskerov	0.78
Michal Oleksiejczuk	0.72
Brunno Ferreira	0.49
Shara Magomedov	0.29
Charles Johnson	0.28
Michel Pereira	0.22
Andrey Pulyaev	0.21
Asu Almabayev	0.14
Rafael Fiziev	0.14
Abus Magomedov	0.13
Jean Matsumoto	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Asu Almabayev	1.25
Michel Pereira	0.57
Jean Matsumoto	0.42
Brunno Ferreira	0.40
Manuel Torres	0.32
Abus Magomedov	0.28
Ikram Aliskerov	0.26
Charles Johnson	0.26
Nursulton Ruziboev	0.05
Michal Oleksiejczuk	0.01
Andrey Pulyaev	0.01
Rafael Fiziev	0.01
Bekzat Almakhan	0.00
Shara Magomedov	0.00

 

UFC Baku: Fiziev vs. Torres DFS Picks and Props to Target

Michel Pereira Over 34.5 Significant Strikes

One thing that Matty and I agreed on Wednesday was the length of Shara Magomedov’s fight with Michel Pereira. That’s sort of all we’ve seen with “Bullet” to this point.

Outside of a somewhat fluky double-backfist knockout, Magomedov has gone at least 12 minutes in every single other fight. And, this includes guys like Antonio Trocoli, “Blindado” Silva, and Marc-Andre Barriault. Pereira has been in a full fight for power against threats like Khaos Williams, Abus Magomedov, and Zach Reese.

Of course, I could have summarized this as both guys have a sub-0.45% knockdown rate (KD%). There’s just not a lot of tangible power here.

With that, “Demolidor” averages 8.75 significant strike attempts per minute. His land rate (51%) is above average. Shara’s striking defense (43%) is poor. I really don’t understand what the fear is here outside of Pereira’s chin, which faltered against Kyle Daukaus and would become evidently untrustworthy in Saturday’s matchup.

I have the Brazilian underdog landing 40.9 significant strikes, and he’ll be significantly undervalued in head-to-head significant strike matchups with Shara Bullet.

Abus Magomedov Over 0.5 Takedowns

This line being a pick ’em on Thursday is insane to me.

We’re giving so much credit to Michal Oleksiejczuk just for being in a gym with the Fighting Nerds, but Mauricio Ruffy, Carlos Prates, and Bruna Brasil are poor defensive wrestlers we’ve seen from the gym. “Hussar” just hasn’t faced a single takedown threat in seven fights. Seriously. A well-past-his-prime Gerald Meerschaert was the only guy averaging north of 1.00 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Abus Magomedov isn’t an elite wrestler, but he’s posted 2.61 takedowns per 15 with a good accuracy rate (59%). It’s also the spot where you’d think he wants to put Oleksiejczuk to avoid the Polish fighter’s 1.31 KD%.

I’ve got Magomedov projected for 1.44 median takedowns. I trust his length and striking defense (55%) to really only give this fight the upside of being stopped early if he lands a takedown that turns into a submission, so needing just one? I think this cashes in Round 1.

Friday Addition: Manuel Torres Over 0.5 Knockdowns

This is a demon on PrizePicks. That’s absolutely insane.

I suppose they believe Manuel Torres is losing the fight. Otherwise, Torres’ 3.21% knockdown rate isn’t just the highest on this card. It’s one of the highest in all of UFC with a minimum of five starts.

One of my longstanding quibbles with Rafael Fiziev has been his analytically poor striking defense (49%), which led to significant damage against Justin Gaethje. Gaethje has brass knuckles that accumulate damage over time, but Torres is more like Mauricio Ruffy with one-shot-and-go power.

I’ve got Torres projected for 1.48 knockdowns, which implies roughly -339 odds of at least one. I bet on him winning the fight this Monday, though. It’s hard to see him doing so without hurting Fiziev at some point.