UFC 329 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC 329 DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Max Holloway	56.88
Conor McGregor	44.54
Mario Bautista	41.00
Brandon Royval	40.95
Cory Sandhagen	40.36
Lone’er Kavanagh	37.11
Paddy Pimblett	34.13
Benoit Saint Denis	33.49
Wang Cong	31.69
Adrian Yanez	28.63
Tracy Cortez	21.63
Robert Whittaker	21.26
Alessandro Costa	20.28
Cody Garbrandt	17.47
Nikita Krylov	16.96
Cody Durden	16.79
King Green	10.94
Terrance McKinney	8.68

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Benoit Saint Denis	3.47
Cody Durden	1.64
Mario Bautista	1.62
Terrance McKinney	1.58
Tracy Cortez	1.14
Cory Sandhagen	1.06
Nikita Krylov	1.02
Lone’er Kavanagh	0.99
Alessandro Costa	0.72
King Green	0.61
Cody Garbrandt	0.58
Robert Whittaker	0.57
Paddy Pimblett	0.51
Wang Cong	0.49
Conor McGregor	0.36
Brandon Royval	0.25
Max Holloway	0.15
Adrian Yanez	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Conor McGregor	1.45
Adrian Yanez	0.93
Terrance McKinney	0.73
Alessandro Costa	0.66
Wang Cong	0.64
Cody Garbrandt	0.60
Benoit Saint Denis	0.55
Nikita Krylov	0.44
Robert Whittaker	0.39
Max Holloway	0.29
Brandon Royval	0.26
Paddy Pimblett	0.22
Cory Sandhagen	0.20
King Green	0.19
Lone’er Kavanagh	0.18
Mario Bautista	0.17
Cody Durden	0.07
Tracy Cortez	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Terrance McKinney	1.23
Benoit Saint Denis	1.15
Brandon Royval	0.89
Nikita Krylov	0.88
Paddy Pimblett	0.77
Wang Cong	0.67
Mario Bautista	0.64
Cody Durden	0.49
Alessandro Costa	0.30
Max Holloway	0.27
Tracy Cortez	0.25
King Green	0.20
Cory Sandhagen	0.17
Lone’er Kavanagh	0.16
Conor McGregor	0.09
Robert Whittaker	0.03
Adrian Yanez	0.01
Cody Garbrandt	0.00

 

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 DFS Picks and Props to Target

Robert Whittaker Under 40.5 Significant Strikes

The ideal spot in DFS is one that wins whether a fighter wins or loses. This follows plenty of Robert Whittaker’s paths to both.

I presume Whittaker’s standing as a-140ish favorite largely has to do with the former champion facing Nikita Krylov, who was chinned in the first round by Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes. “The Reaper”, obviously, isn’t hitting this in a Round 1 knockout.

However, I’ve already bet Krylov to win because there’s a growing trend of concern for Whittaker against grapplers. Reiner de Ridder scored 9:06 in control time, Khamzat Chimaev scored the easiest submission of his career, and Dricus Du Plessis closed the show with ground-and-pound attacks. Now, he’s moving up to a heavier weight class, where his power to chin Krylov and strength in grappling exchanges should conceivably be worse.

The model projects just 21.3 significant strikes for Whittaker in a fight where it actually sees a little value in him to win by decision. The path to the over is full of peril, though.

Benoit Saint Denis Over 1.5 Takedowns

I really don’t get this line at all. Paddy Pimblett is a poor defensive wrestler.

Pimblett’s 44% takedown D has been amassed in matchups where he should have shone in that department, including a matchup with Justin Gaethje in which Gaethje landed the first 3 takedowns of his UFC career. If Justin’s able to get to the legs — even by surprise — what is “The God of War” going to do?

Benoit Saint Denis is a rising storm of takedown attempts, trying 11.97 per 15 minutes. The accuracy isn’t great (35), but mentally, I think back to how many times his face has been dismantled, and he’s grappling for his life. Pimblett’s 0.42% knockdown rate (KD%) just isn’t very scary.

It’d be disappointing to lose this prop to an instantaneous Pimblett submission, but the precedent for one doesn’t exist on the BJJ black belt’s resume. The model’s lean toward a SUB/DEC prop for Saint Denis aligns well with its median projection of 3.47 takedowns.

If you’re playing lineup DFS, it’s very plausible Saint Denis encroaches double-digit takedowns if the Englishman’s get-up game is on point. He’ll be a cash-game staple for me there.

Wang Cong Over 0.5 Knockdowns

A “demon” on PrizePicks when Wang Cong has dropped three of her five UFC opponents? It’s probably a little too dismissive of “The Joker”.

Tracy Cortez’s 57% striking defense is good, but it seems particularly hollow given how little resistance she’s faced from strikers. Melissa Gatto’s +0.80 striking success rate (SSR) is probably the gold standard on her resume, and even then, the Brazilian’s poor takedown D and 0.38% knockdown rate weren’t dangerous, either.

Cong’s 0.83 KD% is massive for women’s flyweight, and she’s also styled on lower-level opponents, resulting in a +4.03 SSR. Her takedown D (84%) has been very strong, as well.

The favorite from China is badly due for early finish regression as she piles up empty submission attempts and knockdowns. I think she’s levels about Cortez on the feet, and this median projection (0.66) implies roughly +106 odds on a knockdown. PrizePicks’ payout percentage implies closer to +125.