UFC 329 Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for McGregor vs. Holloway 2

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC 329. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 329 Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Costa	58.86%	42.79%	26.48%	16.31%	16.07%
Durden	41.14%	18.49%	10.25%	8.24%	22.65%

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Does “Custom Made” have another upset in him?

As a five-time UFC submission victim, it was pretty shocking to see Cody Durden outlast Jafel Filho, but the Brazilian’s gas tank faltered as the Floridian’s endurance took a turn for the better from his recent setbacks against Nyamjargal Tumendemberel and Allan Nasicmento. Alessandro Costa will easily be his toughest foe since a 2024 bout with Josh Van, though.

“Nono” has been a parlay bettor’s dream in 2026, cashing (T)KOs inside the first 10 minutes against Stewart Nicoll’s general ineptitude and Matt Schnell’s non-existent chin. I just still can’t forgive Costa’s total flop at Noche UFC last year, where Alden Coria, who went tit-for-tat with Luis Gurule, pitched a shutout opposite the UFC vet.

On paper, I can’t get too excited about Durden in this spot considering the Brazilian’s 86% takedown defense. Presumably, Costa is the stronger, more powerful striker, and the only guy that the American has ever beaten with just his hands was a chinny JP Buys. Yet, Costa ceded both takedown attempts to Alden Coria, so if it’s a weight-cut inconsistency on short notice, can we rule out Durden turning back the clock?

I’ve often called -200 to -300 “the danger zone” for what feel like prohibitive UFC favorites. Costa’s meltdown against Coria should concern those looking to lay -265.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I don’t love the package I get with an aging Durden, but there’s simply no way that Costa isn’t overvalued off fights with Nicoll and Schnell. That’s a runway for a high-speed jet of hype. The short-notice aspect of this fight is a concern for Costa’s muscular longevity, too. I had no choice but to sprinkle Durden’s decision prop (+460).

Ryan Gandra vs. Zach Reese

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Gandra	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Reese	Eligible

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I promise you guys that Ryan Gandra isn’t very good. Zach Reese isn’t either, though. That sets up a barnburner at middleweight where one of these Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) grads gets a boost toward the rankings.

Gandra blew through Jose Daniel Medina via quick (T)KO, and Reese went to a decision with him. I think that a novice would say that shows levels, but the attrition gap for one of UFC’s most historical punching bags between the two was noteworthy. Instead, it was Reese who mixed in five takedowns and a dangerous submission attempt, utilizing a similar path that earned him a contract on DWCS and submitted Jackson McVey.

At this stage, “Problema” just has the shiny 9-1 record of these two. Even during his DWCS bid, he was a -650 favorite. That level of competition is frighteningly poor, given that Reese, 31, has now faced McVay and the early danger posed by both Cody Brundage and Michel Pereira. It’s a weird spot where he’s the more technical, well-rounded, experienced guy while also having a three-inch edge in height and reach.

Of course, the Shiner native is also a glass cannon, sporting a poor chin and 42% striking defense. That’s the most obvious path for Gandra in a fight that’s not particularly telling. I just think anything beyond the quick bonk significantly favors the American.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I wanted to play Reese’s moneyline at UFC 329, but Gandra is so sloppy that I can’t see this fight extended when he thinks he’s Superman. I’d say the early finish equity is about equal, but the price heavily favors the underdog’s R1 prop (+380). I’ll just be looking to live bet Reese if this fight somehow hits the stools.

Farid Basharat vs. John Garza

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Basharat	Eligible
Garza	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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I’m appreciative of UFC for giving me one I don’t have to sweat. John Garza isn’t beating Farid Basharat.

He whom I call “the good Basharat” is 7-0 in UFC — and six of those wins have come via decision. Some might see the decisions as a weakness, but it gives significant confidence in his durability and a striking success rate (SSR) of +1.36 with elite striking accuracy (52%) and defense (62%) that has now passed through Taylor Lapilus, Jean Matsumoto, Victor Hugo, Da’Mon Blackshear, and plenty of fighters who aren’t losing to many others.

“Ferocious” must have wanted a payday when this meeting with Garza won’t advance him past his newfound 10th-place spot in the rankings.

I’m from Texas, and Fury FC is a fun, local promotion in Houston that houses many future UFC contenders, but it’s also pretty renowned for guys like Eric Nolan that we saw two weeks ago. There are a ton of sloppy knockouts between guys who are grinders, but they’re not well-rounded or technical — especially as grapplers. Garza’s 4-0 record with three KOs, including over an 8-5 pro in his last fight, is very run-of-the-mill.

The market got a bit lazy with Basharat submission props at UFC 329. He’ll have a significant grappling advantage that the underdog has never seen anything like.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: If ITD (+105) is going to be not far behind submission only (+155), you might as well play Basharat that way, too. I think his striking and power are both underrated by his level of competition. However, a majority of the time, he looks -700 here by way of his grappling, and the R1/R2 sub props aren’t bad at all.

Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Pinas	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Almeida	Eligible

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I’m not sure we’ve seen enough of “The Baba Yaga” to declare him the level of prospect many have, but there’s no doubt the signs are encouraging.

Damian Pinas‘ +3.75 SSR is right on track where you’d want it to be against what I thought was a decent DWCS test (Vitor Costa) and UFC winner (Wes Schultz). He was hyped as the next big thing out of Nova Uniao alongside André Pederneiras and José Aldo, but we’ve really only seen the technical efficiency and knockout power to this point. His 100% takedown D isn’t overly relevant in this bout with Cesar Almeida.

“Cesinha” was UFC’s attempt at trying to thrice catch lightning in a bottle after Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira’s kickboxing-to-MMA transitions, but Almeida’s has been much more normal. He put Abdul Razak-Alhassan on a poster, slimed out an overwhelmed Dylan Budka, and lost wrestling matches to Roman Kopylov and Cezary Oleksiejczuk.

At 38, Almeida has many of the deficiencies of “Poatan”. His 43% striking defense isn’t great. He’s been dropped in two of his last four fights. You know his ability to get up from his back isn’t good, which I think could be an underrated parachute for Pinas to win this fight in unspectacular fashion.

I’ll be honest, this line is a little fishy, but I think Almeida has always carried unearned respect in betting markets because of his rivalry with Pereira. Look no further than his sloppy win with multiple fouls over Ihor Potieria (2-6 UFC). I see cardio as the only variable where the Aruban fighter could lose this fight, so a -215 price (where I played it Monday) was very fair.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I think there’s a narrative that Almeida wins a technical standup match, and I don’t think that’s the case. I parlayed Pinas at -215 as a core play, but Almeida’s age, poor head defense, and attrition seem to be served on a platter for the Aruban. As always, R1 (+220) instead of R1 (T)KO at +280 is just a smart thing to do when the Brazilian’s grappling stinks.

Tracy Cortez vs. Wang Cong

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Cortez	44.99%	17.85%	0.86%	16.99%	27.13%
Cong	55.01%	35.20%	17.33%	17.86%	19.81%

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I like my model’s result here, which is unnervingly siding with violence for women’s MMA.

That’s due to finish regression for Wang Cong, who has dropped each of her last two opponents but not found the door. I’m still extremely high on the Chinese fighter’s skillset — even if the +4.03 SSR is a bit of a farce due to a really low level of competition. Eduarda Moura really didn’t even offer much as a striker, and Tracy Cortez (+0.85 SSR) is only a marginal increase.

It’ll be interesting to see how Cortez, 32, responds after a devastating loss to Erin Blanchfield. That second-round submission ended any faint title aspirations and was the first time she’s ever had an early stoppage — for or against — in UFC. It was kind of shocking how easy it was considering Cortez’s wrestling-heavy approach (2.15 takedowns landed per 15 minutes).

If Cong’s 84% takedown D holds, Cortez is probably in a world of trouble. Rose Namajuanas outlanded her by 41 significant strikes at distance, and Cong’s volume and power, per a 0.83% knockdown rate (KD%), have been elite. She’s just had foes like Bruna Brasil and Ariane Lipski da Silva that used their length to run for the hills.

The lack of high-level competition for Cong doesn’t make this a “smash” spot when I don’t fully trust her bottom game, but the number is playable.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I feel like the Cortez side is so “fake sharp” here. There isn’t a single facet of modern MMA where current-day Rose Namajunas has Cong beat, and the Chinese favorite is only -120 on Friday. My model believes she’s badly due for positive regression in the finish column, as well.

Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Riley	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Kamaka III	Eligible

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I’d really like to see more prospect tests like this.

Kai Kamaka III is no pushover. I think even this weekend’s betting line is influenced by a UFC tenure shortly after the COVID break, during which he lost to Danny Chavez and TJ Brown. Really, the 145er grew up in PFL and Bellator, where he went a combined 8-2 and took Brendan Loughnane to a split decision in the 2024 PFL Playoffs.

Even I was a bit underwhelmed by his performance against Dakota Hope in April, but Hope is an athletic, powerful guy who might just be better than advertised. In some ways, we kind of know more about Luke Riley‘s ceiling than Hope’s.

Riley, a longtime friend and training partner of Paddy Pimblett, is a tremendous striker. A boxing-heavy approach has netted him a +2.24 SSR in just over 40 octagon minutes, but failing to trouble Michael Aswell Jr. in any way more notable than Gaston Bolanos was a red flag. Another? He allowed 3:55 in control time to Bogdan Grad in Round 1 before the two got off the stools, and the Austrian fighter capitulated.

Training with Eric Nicksick, you know Kamaka is bringing a wrestling-heavy approach to Riley’s 37% takedown defense. It’s something he did very efficiently (53% takedown conversion) in his first UFC stint. However, Kamaka’s striking accuracy (59%) and defense (56%) are really good, too. He’s just always pushed a pace that has kept the margin on a razor’s edge.

Kamaka has been finished just once in 26 pro fights. This matchup is perfect because Riley deserves a rocketship if he finds the button. I’m just not overly convinced the Englishman carries a lot of power, and I don’t trust this gym to shore up his wrestling defense after seeing Shem Rock’s horrible UFC stint and Pimblett’s poor gameplan against Justin Gaethje.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Unnervingly, I thought this would be the chalk angle. But, 94% of Tapology users are backing Riley. Kamaka is an experienced grinder who is tough to put away and doesn’t give up easily, and he’s a Nicksick guy close to Vegas. His point spread (-110) is a great foundation, but I laddered moneyline (+220), decision (+400), and split decision (+1100). Kamaka is a mediocre favorite but an excellent underdog.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Garbrandt	38.79%	17.03%	13.66%	3.37%	21.76%
Yanez	61.21%	44.00%	38.51%	5.50%	17.21%

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I don’t know why my model still believes in Cody Garbrandt. I’m even more perturbed by how right it was last time, forecasting the ugly decision win he scored despite throwing up during the fight.

There’s no doubt the 35-year-old is aware of his chin liability and has increased timidity late in his career, attempting fewer than 55 significant strikes in five of his last six fights. There’s been an increased intention to wrestle, which could prove valuable at UFC 329. “No Love” showed he’s still dangerous, though, with an unofficial knockdown of Xiao Long in March. His 2.24 KD% doesn’t seem real for bantamweight in such a hefty sample against top-shelf competition.

Adrian Yanez (1.62 KD%) is a guy who also packs power on paper, but the level of competition is noteworthy. Unfortunate scoring against Ricky Simon means his best win is still a 2021 split against Davey Grant. Yanez was slimed out by Rob Font, chopped down with leg kicks by Jonathan Martinez, and outwrestled by Daniel Marcos in previous efforts to find the top 15.

I actually think this fight could be buns. Garbrandt’s hesitancy could pair poorly with the intrusive thoughts stemming from Yanez’s partnership with Sayif Saud, the Fortis MMA coach who mindlessly barks to the point of corrupting Brandon Moreno — among others.

The model’s read is that Yanez likely rolls downhill early, or an ugly slog might favor Cody’s usually strong optics. I tend to agree that a pure boxing advantage alone doesn’t merit a -460 price for Yanez, who should be the most popular parlay square on the board this week. Tread carefully.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: As the week progressed, I’m trusting my model that the guy who flew across the cage against Rob Font is still with us. Yanez’s physicality is just poor — even if his hands are great. Garbrandt needs one punch and is +850 to find it against a guy from Fortis MMA, the gym chock full of crucial mistakes? Sign me up.

Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Steveson	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Ellison	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Flatly, Bo Nickal can’t hold a candle to the professional and collegiate career of Gable Steveson, who is one of the most heralded UFC prospects ever.

The four-time All-American wrestler at Minnesota won gold at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo before brief stints with both WWE and an NFL training camp. If nothing else, he’s maximized life to experience all of that and now embark on a UFC journey in the sport’s weakest division at 26.

Steveson’s wrestling already has him among the most skilled heavyweights on the planet. This is a division Josh Hokit’s small frame has burrowed through with that approach. It’s now a matter of naturalizing a striking approach to get to it in a division where the consequences — unlike Nickal’s to the same extent — are particularly dire.

This is a showcase — not a fight. Elisha Ellison‘s regional level of competition was a red flag entering his UFC debut against Brando Pericic, and he showed no quality. Most believe Pericic is a top-shelf prospect, but Ellison was dominated and finished on the ground by Dave Pearson in a promotion I’ve never heard of as recently as 26 months ago.

Steveson will close as the largest favorite in UFC history, which probably isn’t appropriate in a division where flukes do happen. However, it’s really just a statement on these two’s skill discrepancy, where Ellison likely has only a few seconds to find that fluke before the wrestler drowns him.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I have never bet a half-round prop in my entire MMA career. It’s literally never happened — until now. This is a gross mismatch after Steveson has violently finished equal competition regionally. There’s not a tool besides raw toughness that can carry Ellison past two minutes, and he quit against Pericic.

Nikita Krylov vs. Robert Whittaker

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Krylov	45.11%	35.47%	17.34%	18.13%	9.64%
Whittaker	54.89%	31.16%	22.13%	9.03%	23.73%

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I’ll be on record that I don’t like this move for Robert Whittaker at all. It feels desperate after three devastating losses at middleweight that eliminated any chance of a title.

Size and weight cut haven’t really held “The Reaper” back as much as a lack of power and wrestling defense, losing on the ground in each of those fights. Dricus Du Plessis finished the deal with ground-and-pound, Khamzat Chimaev’s choke displaced his teeth, and Reinier de Ridder scored 9:06 in control time. Obviously, that’s an elite level of competition, but he’s really banking on his speed as a striker for that not to get worse at light heavyweight.

That’s especially true opposite Nikita Krylov. Krylov’s gameplan to strike with both Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes probably results in another loss at UFC 329, but “The Miner” has a history of getting to his grappling when the matchup called for it, posting 2.05 takedowns and 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Obviously, the longer the Ukrainian stays at distance, the better things will be for the former champion. However, Whittaker’s 0.84 KD% has been pretty overrated heading into these recent matchups, and it’s probably still that way, especially after he found the button against Ikram Aliskerov on short notice. Yet relative power is another factor you’d expect to decline as he moves up in weight.

As I’ve mentioned, my model doesn’t account for weight shifts, and Alex Pereira proved it’s not as simple as “small guy skill”. If Whittaker’s power ends up a non-factor in this matchup, Krylov might roll downhill. I’m stunned at this prop market.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: There’s way, way too much credit being given to Khamzat for the quick “back take” and tap he found against Whittaker. Krylov has submitted good grapplers like Ovince St. Preux and Ryan Spann. Can Whittaker, a former 170-pounder, really defend those positions here? I think the former champion is early KO or bust in this fight, and that’s a bad thing to be moving up in weight. The submission prop (+850) is crazy, given that it’s probably Krylov’s most likely path to victory.