UFC Abu Dhabi DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Abu Dhabi DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs. Guskov, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs. Guskov DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Santiago Ponzinibbio	49.84
Magomed Ankalaev	47.41
Bogdan Guskov	43.18
Mike Davis	42.38
Nurullo Aliev	32.84
Sam Patterson	27.78
Thomas Petersen	23.06
Valter Walker	12.16

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Thomas Petersen	4.10
Valter Walker	2.50
Nurullo Aliev	1.97
Mike Davis	1.62
Magomed Ankalaev	1.11
Santiago Ponzinibbio	0.85
Sam Patterson	0.49
Bogdan Guskov	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Bogdan Guskov	1.27
Mike Davis	0.58
Santiago Ponzinibbio	0.58
Magomed Ankalaev	0.52
Sam Patterson	0.33
Thomas Petersen	0.15
Valter Walker	0.01
Nurullo Aliev	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Valter Walker	1.57
Sam Patterson	1.27
Mike Davis	0.78
Bogdan Guskov	0.66
Thomas Petersen	0.32
Nurullo Aliev	0.29
Santiago Ponzinibbio	0.02
Magomed Ankalaev	0.00

 

UFC Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs. Guskov DFS Picks and Props to Target

Santiago Ponzinibbio Over 29.5 Significant Strikes

I genuinely don’t understand Santiago Ponzinibbio‘s betting line, and it transfers over to DFS.

Of course, “The Argentine Dagger” is 39. He’s on the back nine. He might get put out by a dangerous, young Sam Patterson. But, Ponzi has never been submitted in 39 pro fights, which I think — if it holds — really compromises Patterson’s best path to victory.

If this fight is extended, Ponzinibbio is going to triple or quadruple this number. He attempts 11.66 significant strikes per minute, and Patterson’s 50% striking D is poor. Yanal Ashmouz floored this guy.

This line, in my opinion, is most in jeopardy by way of an early finish for the Argentinian, who still has a quality 1.02% knockdown rate into the late stages of his career. I just can’t see it for a guy who’s been into Round 3 in each of his last eight fights.

Thomas Petersen Over 1.5 Takedowns

“The Train” could cost me a fortune on Saturday.

Petersen will look to end an 0-for-4 skid for Valter Walker’s opponents at defending the easiest, cheesiest submission in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. I’m not even certain he will, but a lot of associated bets, props, and DFS projections will look silly if he avoids the heel hook without an issue.

Whether this line ends up dropping at 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5, it really doesn’t matter if the fight is extended. Walker, as a 6’6″ giant, has physiological issues with takedowns yet hasn’t had to defend one yet. Petersen lands 3.01 per 15 minutes at a 43% clip.

Petersen failed all five attempts against Guillherme Pat but, prior to that, posted 9 takedowns against Don’Tale Mayes, who was also 6’6″. The big guys fall hard, and Walker’s wrestling looks dreadful on tape when not just rolling for legs.

My model’s median projection (4.10) assumes it could be 0 if he gets nabbed. It could be 10 in a decision. The balance of that is the result, but I have a lot of conviction in this over when the model projects a full fight 41.2% of the time — and especially in a Petersen win.