UFC Vegas 120 Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Gamrot vs. Salkilld

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Vegas 120. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Vegas 120: Gamrot vs. Salkilld, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Vegas 120 Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Gigi Canuto vs. Carol Foro

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Canuto	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Foro	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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My theory about Paramount+ cracking the whip on these mailed-in Apex cards seems to be true. Carol Foro was rushed into a last-minute fight with GiGi Canuto, who just lost on the most recently revealed episode of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF).

I’m really not sure who was more visible in the public eye. I don’t watch TUF, but taping Canuto’s fights on there brought one name to mind: Jacqueline Amorim. The ultra-aggressive grappler is a five-time IBJJF champion, which is always a bit of a mixed bag in MMA. We saw that in her doubt with Melissa Amaya to earn a trip out the door. Early armbar attempts and success against Amaya faded as her gas tank expired with about 30 seconds left in Round 1. She was stopped in the first 90 seconds of Round 2.

We already know Foro is good for a hard 15, though. She had a barnburner of a fight with Shanelle Dyer on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), where she landed 3 knockdowns and 117 significant strikes as a significant underdog to the English kickboxer. She reminds me very much of Jessica Andrade, swinging from her hip with bad intentions at 5’2″.

If there was ever a women’s 115 fight primed for violence, it would be this one. On short notice, Canuto has already shown cardio issues working so hard for early submissions. Foro throws with incredible force but has no history of grappling defense and a boxing background.

I will say that this line seems wide given that both women can look -400 in a quick finish. I’m not rushing to play GiGi’s boom-or-bust win condition, but the total is an obvious building block.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I played under 2.5 rounds at -180 at a fantastic price on Thursday night. Most other sportsbooks had it -200 or higher. With that, sprinkles at Canuto’s early submissions make sense, but I know the likely, heavily priced result of a Foro (T)KO makes plenty of sense, too.

Julianna Miller vs. Ravena Oliveira

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Miller	67.63%	40.16%	15.45%	24.72%	27.47%
Oliveira	32.37%	6.52%	5.59%	0.93%	25.85%

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Though this isn’t a fight you’d want to stake any meaningful amount of money on, it’s easy to favor Julianna Miller in Saturday’s opener.

“Killer” is the one of these two ladies with a UFC victory — and has two over Brogan Walker and Ivana Petrovic. Miller’s standup might actually be worse than a -1.49 striking success rate (SSR) implies, but she’s got an offensive identity by way of 2.16 takedowns and 1.2 submission attempts secured per 15 minutes. Putting recent history together makes it clear that it wouldn’t work well against Luana Santos and Carli Judice, but Ravena Oliveira is significantly more vulnerable.

Oliveira actually makes UFC history in this spot as just the second woman to compete in all three official UFC weight classes. Jessica Andrade was the first. It’s sort of because she’s lacked any sort of home or skill on which to rely. “Kenoudy” has landed just 1.91 significant strikes per minute — worst on the women’s roster of those with at least three starts. She also has poor takedown defense (46%) and was submitted by Stephanie Luciano in her previous bout.

Training at “Life MMA”, I don’t have any sort of hope Oliveira has come far in just over four months. This would be a reclamation project for a major gym — and one which we saw Hailey Cowan fail to ever make a dent in a week ago. Oliveira is the same sort of minute-loser in any domain of the sport, which gives the former TUF winner a clear path to floor this fight and dominate it.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Miller’s -5.5 point spread (-125) seems pretty short when Oliveira is yet to bank a round in UFC. That’s the base play when women’s flyweight is still susceptible to a fight that impossibly goes the distance. I trusted the model’s lean of (T)KO over SUB.

Miles Johns vs. Gianni Vazquez

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Johns	Eligible
Vazquez	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Beware this steep number for the 6-5 UFC veteran.

Miles Johns has been around — and competitive — forever, but his overall package isn’t one you really want to back at chalk. He’s lived on both sides of the “split decision” coin with a low-output style that has produced just 3.36 significant strikes per minute. Early-career power has faded, too; “Chapo” opened his tenure with three knockdowns in his first five UFC fights but hasn’t scored one since.

This has been a wild saga for Johns to get an opponent for Saturday. Raul Rosas Jr.’s brother, Jessie, was going to make his UFC debut, but he was scratched with an injury on Thursday. Instead, it’ll be a second chance for Gianni Vazquez on even shorter notice than last time.

Vazquez missed weight, got dropped, and posted a -35 striking differential against Farid Basharat — yes, that Basharat bro. It’s because his natural division is flyweight, where he actually lost to Edgar Chairez via one of the worst MMA refereeing performances ever.

Here’s the bottom line about Johns. His volume stinks, but striking (65%) and takedown (77%) defense are elite even if you’re a real member of his division. He’s been planning to fight at 145 for weeks. Vazquez will do it in days. I know the Mexican-born fighter is tough, but I hope they got another guaranteed fight on the contract this time. It seems he’s swimming up a certain creek with no paddle.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ll end up with a unit on Johns’ ITD prop at plus money when it drops. Vazquez got destroyed by the worst Basharat bro. This could be a spot where his early-career power returns — and it wouldn’t mean anything.

Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Sousa	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Miranda	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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After an inhuman last performance, is Manoel Sousa beatable? I’m always one to throw a little cold water on unreal performances, and it isn’t hard for the veteran.

First of all, Sousa’s late effort was better than his actual fight performance. He had a -13 striking differential against Bolaji Oki before a statement knockout, and before that, Sousa was down 2-0 in his DWCS bout before a comeback after two rounds of at least 3:10 in control time. In Bellator, Archie Colgan also landed timely takedowns to stifle the Brazilian.

Clearly, the pace, power, and endurance of “Manumito” are a problem. He knocked out Mauricio Ruffy on the regional scene in 2019. I also want to keep in mind that UFC wants to push him after the highlight. But, Richie Miranda is a game veteran with the tools to bring out the more human-looking side of the favorite.

Miranda is a wrestling specialist with great back and wrist control. He also showed in LFA that he can deliver an efficient, high-volume striking performance when it’s not working. “El Machete” has just one pro loss by split decision and — otherwise — an unblemished LFA record in 11 bouts. It’s a little surprising it’s taken so long to get a UFC or DWCS call.

Training with Cub Swanson, I do think Miranda has someone with the talent to win multiple times in a watered-down UFC lightweight division. It’s short notice, but it’s hard not to feel this number is a little wide.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Sousa has needed miraculous comebacks to find late finishes in UFC, but Miranda is rarely outgunned late in fights due to his elite cardio. I think this is a competitive, 15-minute bout where the underdog covers his number.

Louie Sutherland vs. Jose “Montanha” Luiz

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Sutherland	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Luiz	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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I don’t know how much we can draw from Louie Sutherland‘s upset of Tai Tuivasa in Perth.

Sutherland showed off wrestling skills rarely seen in the PFL or on the regional scene, mostly by walking down bums like a marauder. It also requires the context that Sutherland was too tired to do much by way of damage or grappling advances. Most of all, though, that’s how Tai Tuivasa loses to everyone.

We’re sort of left in no man’s land with the fighter from Scotland. He got his leg snatched by Valter Walker and quickly KO’d by Brando Pericic — but most fans will forgive those results. Is the aggregate chalk against Jose Luiz?

I wish more fighters would pull a rope-a-dope on UFC for their last-minute antics like “Montanha”, who was signed before a 2025 bout with Marek Buljo that fizzled. He’s now had extra time for a camp against an easier opponent. At 29 years old and 6’4″ without the typical “blob” heavyweight frame, I understand the curiosity of Luiz, but he’s really more of a DWCS product with his last win coming via first-round submission against a 3-2 pro in a minor Curitiba promotion.

“The Vanilla Gorilla” just has a super unappealing package to me — especially at chalk. He’s shown no significant power with his hands in PFL, UFC, or Bellator. He’s 0-1 via submission despite the wrestling success against Tuivasa, and the Brazilian debutant has four diverse submissions in six pro wins.

Other than Montanha being grossly underqualified, where does Sutherland win this fight comfortably? I think it’s more likely he gets a limb snatched after being overconfident in wrestling situations.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Sutherland’s discomfort in grappling exchanges could be his path to defeat if Luiz, who was an excellent ground fighter on the regional scene, has improved since his most recent appearance in 2024. His sub prop (+350) is short for someone with that tendency.

Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Bruno Lopes

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Nurgozhay	68.47%	29.24%	26.72%	2.52%	39.23%
Lopes	31.53%	13.07%	3.41%	9.66%	18.46%

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Favorites are on a 22-3 run in UFC right now. The record for first-round finishes has been broken twice in the last 90 days. The promotion is drifting toward staged entertainment, which is why I overhauled and released Model 4.0 before the Belgrade event.

Here’s the unbelievable fruits of that labor. A convincing result behind a flawed -160ish favorite is something I just don’t see often, but these spots have been so successful of late. Diyar Nurgozhay certainly has just one path to lose this fight.

The Kazak fighter’s resume is stained by a Brendson Ribeiro kimura, and he was nearly leglocked by Rafael Tobias at the end of his last victorious result. He’s got a grappling problem, and Bruno Lopes — a black belt in BJJ on paper — can exploit that. We’ve yet to see a submission attempt in three appearances for “The Brazilian Cowboy”.

Lopes, though, has his own problems. He was colded by Ribeiro, Dustin Jacoby, and Navajo Stirling. His one UFC win was an ugly performance of cage pushing against kickboxer Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. Lopes’ -1.33 SSR is horrid, and the mounting attrition from the KOs is concerning when he’s quietly 33.

Ultimately, the favorite survived multiple mounted efforts against Tobias. Is that because he was a fraud? Do Lopes’ five regional submissions inspire hope of better, or has Nurgozhay’s grappling meaningfully improved?

Without a submission, Nurgozhay will dominate, but his 0.68% knockdown rate isn’t high. I feel more comfortable with his moneyline than with an exact outcome, but the model leans heavily toward points.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Nurgozhay needed a head kick to record his only knockdown in UFC. The model’s verdict that DEC (+500) is more likely to win outright than (T)KO (+125) is interesting. He’s just not a guy that carries a ton of power, but I prefer moneyline (-165) above all.

Steven Asplund vs. Guillherme Pat

Heavyweight (265 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Asplund	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Pat	Eligible

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The heavyweight division was missing a little trashy and a little nasty. Steven Asplund has been a wonderful addition to both categories.

As a self-proclaimed former “fat boy”, don’t let Asplund’s loose skin that he wears with pride fool you. The boxer combines high-volume combinations with a granite chin and significantly better grappling defense than we thought. “Concrete” trains out in Minnesota with Thomas Petersen, which allowed him to survive Vitor Petrino — a ranked foe — in his second UFC start. Of course, his debut was a splattering of Sean Sharaf, where he landed 170 significant strikes in under nine minutes.

Guillherme Pat is a pretty ridiculous step back in competition from Petrino, who fought in the top 15 at light heavyweight. Pat is 1-1 in two starts since December, toppling fellow debutant AJ Frye (0-1 UFC) before losing to Petersen. At one point, Thomas “The Train” dropped the Brazilian kickboxer to win a 10-8 final round.

While Asplund probably won’t level change, this is a volume game, given that Pat has shown zero power against two of the most vulnerable opponents on the roster. The favorite attempts 19.71 significant strikes per minute to the underdog’s 4.43. Pat doesn’t even give himself the chance to land a seminal blow, and Minnesota’s Asplund ate several without issue against Petrino.

I’m all for exploring angles to avoid chalk, but the blueprint for Pat to win this fight hasn’t been seen in the UFC yet. This seems to be one of the most shameless prop-up spots on the entire card.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Who am I to fade Matty’s biggest straight bet of the year? Pat is terrible. I played R1 (+460) and R2 (+600) knockout sprinkles for Asplund because he gives himself so many opportunities to find what I believe to be a weak chin. Don’t sleep on ground-and-pound attacks here, either.