UFC Sacramento DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Sacramento DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade: to bet on the UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant projections for strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts on Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Sacramento: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, taking place at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Sacramento: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Mason Jones	75.20
Nasrat Haqparast	71.98
Chris Padilla	58.06
MarQuel Mederos	56.73
Kennedy Nzechukwu	44.31
Anthony Hernandez	40.46
Gregory Rodrigues	37.29
Shamil Gaziev	29.65
Reinier de Ridder	29.58
Serghei Spivac	29.30
Roman Dolidze	28.36
Vitor Petrino	26.45

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Reinier de Ridder	4.04
Anthony Hernandez	3.56
Mason Jones	2.12
Serghei Spivac	1.86
Vitor Petrino	1.75
Gregory Rodrigues	1.51
Roman Dolidze	1.28
Chris Padilla	0.72
Shamil Gaziev	0.57
MarQuel Mederos	0.51
Nasrat Haqparast	0.30
Kennedy Nzechukwu	0.23

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Gregory Rodrigues	0.84
Nasrat Haqparast	0.52
MarQuel Mederos	0.45
Vitor Petrino	0.45
Shamil Gaziev	0.37
Reinier de Ridder	0.33
Roman Dolidze	0.31
Kennedy Nzechukwu	0.29
Mason Jones	0.16
Anthony Hernandez	0.10
Chris Padilla	0.01
Serghei Spivac	0.00

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Anthony Hernandez	1.34
Roman Dolidze	0.64
Reinier de Ridder	0.58
Vitor Petrino	0.53
Serghei Spivac	0.40
Gregory Rodrigues	0.34
Chris Padilla	0.28
Shamil Gaziev	0.22
Mason Jones	0.20
Kennedy Nzechukwu	0.14
Nasrat Haqparast	0.01
MarQuel Mederos	0.00

 

UFC Sacramento: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues DFS Picks and Props to Target

 

Mason Jones Over 58.5 Significant Strikes

All but one of Mason Jones‘ octagon appearances have gone the distance. It’s a perfect four-for-four for MarQuel Mederos. I’m not sure why these significant strike props don’t look closer to the Young-Dorsainvil prelim bout in the 80s.

Jones is coming off a performance where he topped 100 significant strikes (110) for the second time in his career, and it was against the outstanding length and size of Axel Sola. Mederos’ 52% striking defense and quick lateral agility isn’t the easiest target, but the Coloradan just surrendered 147 significant strikes to Chris “Taco” Padilla in a standup affair.

Every foe has tried to take down Mederos at least three times. He’s faced 35 total attempts and defended 29 of them. Jones has historically mixed it up for 3.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, but enough success to stall this prop seems somewhat unlikely. Sola defended 4 of 7 looks.

Frankly, I think both guys sail past this mark in a 15-minute affair, and I actually like Mederos (at his odds) to get the nod. But, Jones is the safer play in DFS since he’ll be the one who could have upside to land hard strikes from top position if he’s able to successfully wrestle.

My model’s slate-high projection loomed large in my decision to go here, too.

Shamil Gaziev Under 1.5 Takedowns

I know Shamil Gaziev has Islam Makhachev’s beard, but he doesn’t have the cardio. Or the talent in general.

Gaziev 33% takedown accuracy isn’t very Dagestani, and it’s because he’s forced to bail on so many half-hearted attempts when he’s tired. He’s now 36, so the cardio isn’t improving, either. Frankly, I don’t know how much wrestling will be part of the Kennedy Nzechukwu gameplan anyway.

Nzechukwu’s entry-level takedown D (80%) is quite good. He defended 10 of 13 attempts from Marcus Buchecha, and the lone successful Valter Walker “takedown” was a heel hook into a tap. In fact, if Kennedy has a weakness, it’s an iffy chin and mediocre striking defense (51%).

Waldo Cortes-Acosta blinked Gaziev in under two minutes, and Brando Pericic unleashed a ton of damage onto him just over three months ago. I actually think “The African Savage” is live for an early KO here, too.

If Gaziev attempts five-plus takedowns to record multiple in the first round, I think his heart might stop by the eighth minute. I just can’t see it when Nzechukwu has provided decent resistance, and my model’s median projection (0.57) thinks this is a brief standup affair.

UFC 330’s Official Two-Legger

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I am not an employee of Underdog, PrizePicks, or any other DFS platform. This is just my personal code as a longtime UFC DFS player.

Like with sports betting, daily fantasy involves risk. No model or projections guarantee success or long-term profitability. In fact, the projections are still in beta and highly volatile in a cage fight, where several variables can influence outcomes within seconds.

Any decisions you make while viewing and using my projections are your responsibility. If you or a loved one has a gaming issue, call 1-800-GAMBLER.