UFC 330 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC 330 DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade: to bet on the UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant projections for strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts on Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, taking place at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Esteban Ribovics	84.32
Jose Ochoa	58.66
Edson Barboza	57.60
Charles Johnson	52.57
Vicente Luque	48.32
Kaue Fernandes	45.78
Jalin Turner	45.06
Ian Machado Garry	44.32
Chidi Njokuani	43.78
Joel Alvarez	39.69
Tresean Gore	36.20
Mackenzie Dern	34.59
Islam Makhachev	34.53
Gillian Robertson	34.02
Mansur Abdul-Malik	33.33
Neil Magny	33.10
Dustin Stoltzfus	32.22
Myktybek Orolbai	23.38
Ramiz Brahimaj	22.74
Jeremiah Wells	10.87

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Myktybek Orolbai	7.00
Gillian Robertson	3.85
Jeremiah Wells	3.11
Neil Magny	2.35
Mackenzie Dern	2.31
Islam Makhachev	2.17
Ramiz Brahimaj	2.05
Mansur Abdul-Malik	1.51
Tresean Gore	1.17
Dustin Stoltzfus	1.14
Charles Johnson	0.75
Ian Machado Garry	0.61
Kaue Fernandes	0.52
Vicente Luque	0.46
Jalin Turner	0.39
Jose Ochoa	0.35
Edson Barboza	0.33
Esteban Ribovics	0.22
Joel Alvarez	0.12
Chidi Njokuani	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Kaue Fernandes	1.20
Jalin Turner	1.14
Edson Barboza	0.59
Jose Ochoa	0.58
Vicente Luque	0.57
Esteban Ribovics	0.51
Chidi Njokuani	0.44
Myktybek Orolbai	0.43
Ian Machado Garry	0.41
Jeremiah Wells	0.38
Islam Makhachev	0.33
Charles Johnson	0.30
Mansur Abdul-Malik	0.26
Dustin Stoltzfus	0.22
Ramiz Brahimaj	0.18
Joel Alvarez	0.15
Mackenzie Dern	0.14
Neil Magny	0.06
Tresean Gore	0.01
Gillian Robertson	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Ramiz Brahimaj	1.44
Mackenzie Dern	1.19
Jeremiah Wells	1.14
Islam Makhachev	1.11
Gillian Robertson	0.98
Joel Alvarez	0.89
Jose Ochoa	0.88
Dustin Stoltzfus	0.87
Jalin Turner	0.84
Tresean Gore	0.82
Vicente Luque	0.59
Myktybek Orolbai	0.45
Ian Machado Garry	0.44
Charles Johnson	0.40
Neil Magny	0.27
Mansur Abdul-Malik	0.24
Esteban Ribovics	0.21
Edson Barboza	0.10
Chidi Njokuani	0.08
Kaue Fernandes	0.01

 

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry DFS Picks and Props to Target

 

Ian Machado Garry Over 42.5 Significant Strikes

Islam Makhachev is untouchable to many, but I can’t help but think the blueprint is out there for Ian Machado Garry to compete each minute of Saturday’s main event.

Makhachev submitted Renato Moicano on 24-hour notice, and Jack Della Maddalena’s bottom game proved completely dysfunctional in a win that has aged like milk. We’ve seen Garry — against a larger fighter in Shavkat Rakhmonov — have success in the trenches, making it grimy. He landed 42 significant strikes, a takedown, and two dangerous submission attempts in that 25-minute affair.

Look, Dustin Poirier landed 74 significant strikes in 22:42. It’s because Makhachev was unable to keep grappling and working to his back with so much resistance, and Garry’s get-up game is solid. Shavkat was only credited with 2 of 10 takedown attempts despite 11:42 in control — most of which came against the fence.

That hasn’t been Makhachev’s tendency. He’s willing to lean on an improving striking game, and Garry (4.78 significant strikes landed per minute) pushes a solid pace with an array of jabs to score points with his four-inch reach edge.

Realistically, I think Garry just needs one round of distance striking to smash this line in a fight that is favored to go over 4.5 rounds. I have it 51.3% likely to go the distance.

Myktybek Orolbai Over 2.5 Takedowns

This is probably the place I’ll get exposure to Myktybek Orolbai in lieu of a ridiculous betting line.

The Kyrgyz fighter is good, but he’s undoubtedly a bit overrated as he tours the senior circuit. First came Jack Hermansson cutting too much weight, and Chris Curtis didn’t fare much better. Here’s 39-year-old Jeremiah Wells. Give me a break.

Regardless, Wells’ 50% takedown defense is a problem here. The American has made fine use of reversals and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes to win rounds after he’s floored, but he’s the smaller fighter.

Orolbai showed the ability to wrestle hard for 15 minutes against Chris Curtis. My median projection (7.0 takedowns) is so high for him because the model expects length in the fight; Wells hasn’t been stopped before the 13th minute in any of his seven UFC starts. Without an early finish, I expect the favorite to cruise past this mark, and expecting more takedown volume and a longer bout is actually a way to fade Orolbai’s “unstoppable” persona.

Kaue Fernandes Over 0.5 Knockdowns

I love Jalin Turner as much as the next guy. I’ve backed him in at least 11 straight fights since I started doing this as an analyst. His combination of power, length, and submission danger makes him an early threat anywhere.

It’s just so obvious to me how this fight plays out, though.

Anecdotally, Turner doesn’t deal with leg kicks well. He ate 23 from Dan Hooker. King Green had early success before his knockout loss. Even Ignacio Bahamondes lit up his front leg before a first-round submission. He’s so heavy on his lead foot with slender legs that I think it’s Turner’s kryptonite.

Enter…maybe the best lightweight leg-kicker ever? Kaue Fernandes has two (T)KOs that are pretty much exclusively due to low kicks. Mohammad Yahya was wounded by them, and Harry Hardwick flat fell over. As a result, Fernandes’ 2.45% knockdown rate is enormous.

It’s possible he drops Turner by chopping away at the leg, but Fernandes has also gone upstairs regionally as a counter. We haven’t seen that yet in UFC. I think he finishes Turner after damaging his lead calf, sending Joe Rogan into heat.

UFC 330’s Official Two-Legger

If you haven’t played DFS on Underdog, you can use my personal promo code “ASWAIM3”.

I am not an employee of Underdog, PrizePicks, or any other DFS platform. This is just my personal code as a longtime UFC DFS player.

Like with sports betting, daily fantasy involves risk. No model or projections guarantee success or long-term profitability. In fact, the projections are still in beta and highly volatile in a cage fight, where several variables can influence outcomes within seconds.

Any decisions you make while viewing and using my projections are your responsibility. If you or a loved one has a gaming issue, call 1-800-GAMBLER.