UFC 333 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC 333 DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade: to bet on the UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant projections for strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts on Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The fights start at 10:00 a.m. EST.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Merab Dvalishvili	63.82
Bolaji Oki	60.54
Petr Yan	53.76
Daniel Santos	52.72
Alexander Volkanovski	51.92
Ramazan Temirov	51.36
Movsar Evloev	50.92
Alexander Volkov	50.91
Rizvan Kuniev	45.90
Lone’er Kavanagh	39.06
Azamat Murzakanov	37.95
Dominick Reyes	37.36
Cam Rowston	32.92
Abus Magomedov	31.17
Iasmin Lucindo	30.26
Nicolle Caliari	29.16
Grant Dawson	25.84
Nurullo Aliev	25.29

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Merab Dvalishvili	4.94
Movsar Evloev	4.45
Nicolle Caliari	3.37
Nurullo Aliev	2.51
Grant Dawson	2.31
Alexander Volkanovski	2.08
Iasmin Lucindo	2.04
Abus Magomedov	2.04
Daniel Santos	1.86
Petr Yan	1.51
Bolaji Oki	0.60
Rizvan Kuniev	0.49
Cam Rowston	0.46
Azamat Murzakanov	0.44
Lone’er Kavanagh	0.42
Ramazan Temirov	0.36
Alexander Volkov	0.25
Dominick Reyes	0.12

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Ramazan Temirov	1.48
Azamat Murzakanov	1.10
Cam Rowston	0.77
Petr Yan	0.66
Dominick Reyes	0.61
Rizvan Kuniev	0.48
Bolaji Oki	0.42
Daniel Santos	0.36
Alexander Volkanovski	0.35
Lone’er Kavanagh	0.31
Abus Magomedov	0.30
Alexander Volkov	0.21
Grant Dawson	0.08
Merab Dvalishvili	0.07
Movsar Evloev	0.01
Nurullo Aliev	0.01
Iasmin Lucindo	0.00
Nicolle Caliari	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Grant Dawson	1.27
Nicolle Caliari	0.96
Abus Magomedov	0.48
Nurullo Aliev	0.44
Merab Dvalishvili	0.38
Lone’er Kavanagh	0.33
Cam Rowston	0.25
Movsar Evloev	0.25
Alexander Volkanovski	0.24
Alexander Volkov	0.19
Dominick Reyes	0.14
Azamat Murzakanov	0.14
Petr Yan	0.13
Iasmin Lucindo	0.10
Rizvan Kuniev	0.02
Daniel Santos	0.01
Ramazan Temirov	0.00
Bolaji Oki	0.00

 

 

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev DFS Picks and Props to Target

 

Alexander Volkov Under 56.5 Significant Strikes

I think most envision this heavyweight main card feature between Alexander Volkov and Rizvan Kuniev looking a particular way. That’s with the 6’7″, lanky Russian stabbing jabs and teeps into Kuniev’s shorter frame in a decision.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think it’s that easy. Volkov’s significant strike counts and fantasy scores are suppressed across every DFS app, and my model has Kuniev as a slight favorite (50.8%).

Volkov’s takedown defense really failed him against Almeida, but the smaller fighter couldn’t manage top control. Kuniev, around the 265-pound limit, would be much larger on top, but even failing to ground three of his five UFC-affiliated foes, he’s limited opponents to 25.4 significant strikes on average.

He’s just an elite neutralizer with his pressure, mild wrestling threat, and cage push. I’ve got Volkov projected for just 50.9 median significant strikes.

 

Petr Yan Under 2.5 Takedowns

I think Petr Yan’s December effort caught Merab Dvalishvili and the betting public off guard. I’ll be honest; it’ll be tilting if this line just ends up being a stimulus check.

Yan landed 5 takedowns against Dvalishvili in a world-class performance where “The Machine” clearly wasn’t at 100%, and I can prove it. His takedown attempt volume dropped from 49 to 29 between the first fight with Yan and the one a few months ago.

I am guessing Underdog and PrizePicks will get 99% on this action, at a 2.05x payout, on the over. But, Yan doesn’t wrestle. He attempts just 3.47 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands half of those (49%).

Now, Merab knows he has to be ready for that. In general, the Georgian’s takedown defense (76%) is great, but it caught him off guard. All of the five takedowns were trips or sneak attacks rather than conventional American wrestling or judo attempts.

I’ve got Yan projected for just 1.51 median takedowns, implying odds closer to -416 that he scores fewer than three.

 

Ramazan Temirov Over 0.5 Knockdowns

With exposure on Lone’er Kavanagh’s decision prop, I think this is a good hedge when there’s also a realistic middle in this top-10 flyweight showdown.

Ramazan Temirov’s early fists are nukes. His 4.76% knockdown rate is highest among active ranked flyweights, but all five were accrued against CJ Vergara and Steve Erceg. I’m guessing that, when he reaches 100 octagon minutes, it’ll normalize between 1.50% and 1.75%.

In general, I don’t really have any concerns about Kavanagh’s chin. His one knockdown surrendered was a focus mistake against Charles Johnson, who’s huge for this weight class. Temirov (5’4″) is not.

But, Temirov throws so hard and invests so much early that he should never be a “demon” for a knockdown against anyone that doesn’t have a granite chin. My projections imply closer to -339 odds for a drop, and if my little two-legger loses, Kavanagh will win the fight, and I’ll make my money back.

 

Abus Magomedov Under 0.5 Submission Attempts

Abus Magomedov has recorded a submission attempt in three of his last four, and PrizePicks has one set at a straight pick at UFC 333. Sneaky.

In general, Abus’ submission volume (0.6 attempts per 15 minutes) is just okay. He’s facing Cam Rowston, who allowed one half-hearted submission attempt to Robert Bryczek in just over 44 octagon minutes to this point.

This is really a five-minute sweat. Magomedov’s awful cardio gives him a round of solid wrestling before Rowston, who hasn’t been floored in four fights, can likely stuff the shots pretty easily. It’s a hallmark trait of Eugene Bearman’s gym at City Kickboxing.

Moreover, Magomedov has a -0.28 striking success rate (SSR) and a fading chin at 36 years old. I think the younger CKB product knows he’s got a standup advantage here and is prepared to stop the takedowns. It’s extremely unlikely Abus can find a submission attempt without those.

At my median projection (0.48), I’d put Abus to register a sub attempt at +162. PrizePicks’ straight picks are roughly -110 implied, so the value is on the under.

 

UFC 333’s Official Two-Leggers

If you haven’t played DFS on Underdog or PrizePicks, you can use my personal promo code “ASWAIM3”.

I am not an employee of Underdog, PrizePicks, or any other DFS platform. This is just my personal code as a longtime UFC DFS player.

Like with sports betting, daily fantasy involves risk. No model or projections guarantee success or long-term profitability. In fact, the projections are still in beta and highly volatile in a cage fight, where several variables can influence outcomes within seconds.

Any decisions you make while viewing and using my projections are your responsibility. If you or a loved one has a gaming issue, call 1-800-GAMBLER.