UFC Abu Dhabi Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Ankalaev vs. Guskov

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Abu Dhabi. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs. Guskov, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE on Saturday. The fights start at 8:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Abu Dhabi Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Cody Gibson vs. Abdul Hussein

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Gibson	Eligible
Hussein	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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This is an attempt to end Cody Gibson‘s UFC career, but I’m not 100% certain it’ll work.

I don’t think it’s anything against “Renegade”, but he’s 38 years old in a division that isn’t friendly to aging fighters. We saw that with the first (T)KO loss of his career last time out against Aoriqileng, and he was submitted by Da’Mon Blackshear in his own realm before that.

It’ll help him at UFC Abu Dhabi that Abdul Hussein‘s future might be at flyweight, where his only pro loss came to Mohammad Mokaev. The Finnish prospect’s highlight reel shows fast, developing hands, unusual comfort transitioning from striking to wrestling, and an incredibly opportune submission game that I call an “easy squeeze”, which doesn’t seem to burn up his arms. He KO’d former UFC flyweight Tyson Nam on the regional scene.

Gibson is a large bantamweight, so at +410, there’s a chance he’s just too large and too “in the way” for any sort of ITD fun, and parlays could be sweaty. The price is probably ridiculous given the size disparity, but I just don’t think the American has any momentum as a striker or a grappler to envision someone primed to pull an upset. His wins — and losses — have aged like milk.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The longer I thought about it, Hussein’s decision prop (+280) is short despite just one in his career. It’s because he’s up in weight against a huge 135er. Even with Gibson’s shortcomings, I think he survives.

Nurullo Aliev vs. Mike Davis

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Aliev	57.78%	20.32%	8.74%	11.59%	37.46%
Davis	42.22%	18.86%	8.70%	10.16%	23.36%

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Man, I’m pretty stunned that a fighter as boring as Nurullo Aliev is getting such fervent betting support, but it’s the “Middle Eastern name in Abu Dhabi thing”, I presume.

“Tajik Eagle” is the last true hope of the Tajikstan wave of talent from around 2022-23, that’s, otherwise, met its end. Loik Radzhabov, Muhammad Naimov, and Muin Gafurov have had any dreams of the top 15 squashed. Aliev, 25, is unbeaten in three starts.

He’s been a wrestle-and-control specialist at 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he’s gone to a decision in all three starts — plus 9 of 11 as a pro. He’s yet to really add any meaningful power on the feet or submission skills, and that’s why he’s a longshot to finish anyone as good as Mike Davis.

“Beast Boy” was the dark horse of the division before a myriad of injuries stunted his momentum. Natan Levy and Mitch Ramirez are his two wins since returning from that near-two-year layoff, and the loss (Fares Ziam) is pretty forgivable, too.

This might be my best model result in quite some time. I do think there’s a physical element to whether Davis is cooked, and Aliev’s ITD prop will be undervalued until it hits. Light swipes at that make sense for that side.

Overall, though, this week’s abrupt line movement made finding a side easy. A guy who just went to a decision with Shem Rock shouldn’t be -230.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: In America, I really think that Davis could win this fight 30-27 with seminal moments and Aliev’s lack of damage. In Abu Dhabi? I’m getting PTSD from Fakhretdinov-Leal. I’m playing Davis’ point spread (-135) and decision prop (+500).

Magomed Tuchalov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Tuchalov	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Ribeiro	Eligible

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This game just isn’t particularly appealing to me.

I’m not exactly reinventing the wheel to say that UFC probably wants Magomed Tuchalov to chin Brendson Ribeiro, and he does have a decent shot of doing it. He put down UFC alum Caio Machado for the first loss via early finish for “Bigfoot” as a pro.

On tape, Tuchalov is a quick, crafty striker who is willing to give the front foot, but he does have a wrestling and grappling changeup. He honestly reminds me of a less aggressive version of the package you get with Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, but the skill is there. For the record, that is my indictment of Yakhyaev, not praise of Tuchalov.

“Hunter” did knock out Ribeiro, though. “The Gorilla” just hasn’t had much UFC success despite a dangerous, offensive-minded skill set. His striking defense (53%) isn’t bad on paper, but he’s been dropped twice in seven starts and the victim of four first-round finishes.

“The game” I referred to is whether or not a juiced Round 1 prop for Tuchalov comes home. Could he be a total fraud? It’s definitely possible, per his regional level of competition.

Ribeiro is too unreliable to back at this number. He’s so chinny, and he has to be a confident fighter yet is sapped of confidence. This is mostly a pass.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ve basically got nothing, but I just don’t think Tuchalov’s Round 1 knockout (-190) and submission (+1000) should be so far apart. It’s not something I think happens particularly often, but it feels slightly off in a fight that has an inevitable ending. I did not play this myself.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Bonfim	Eligible
Sola	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Axel Sola is just a few minutes short of model eligibility, but the result would not be flattering.

Sola’s -1.22 striking success rate (SSR) is a major concern, especially given a win over Rhys McKee, a historical UFC punching bag. While his fight against Mason Jones was fun, a -45 striking differential against Jones, as the longer fighter, is still a really poor result. Adding three takedowns was a new wrinkle, though.

He enters this bout with Ismael Bonfim as a moderate favorite — which is definitely more to do with the less successful Bonfim brother’s last appearance. He missed weight and badly gassed against Chris “Taco” Padilla, but Taco is now 4-0-1 in UFC.

At his best, Bonfim took three clean rounds off Vinc Pichel, and he survived Terrance McKinney early to find the killshot in Round 2. I close my eyes and envision Bonfim’s shortcomings, but his striking defense (65%) is elite on paper, and he’s got the +1.80 SSR of these two.

Bonfim cedes just three inches of reach at UFC Abu Dhabi, so the efficiency gap is still a little jarring. It feels like Sola often just tries to maximize his length and avoid a firefight, which is the sort of glacial pace that can keep Bonfim’s gas tank full.

By the way, do we know if Sola can grapple at all? No one has shot a takedown against him, and France isn’t exactly known for it.

As expected, fans (and bettors because you’re all one and the same) like Sola. He just had a fun fight. Very clean record. I get it. But, if Bonfim is in better shape, he’s a responsible distance striker who is well-rounded and tough to navigate. Plus, is there a chance he’s got a grappling path here?

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I can’t get beyond the fact that Bonfim might have a grappling path here that no one is talking about. Look at his brother. I played his moneyline (+165), SUB/DEC (+310), and early SUB (+1200) props on Friday. I’m not going to be able to contain my laughter if all the film guys missed this.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Ponzinibbio	45.73%	22.18%	18.78%	3.40%	23.55%
Patterson	54.27%	44.00%	21.85%	22.15%	10.27%

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Here’s the most volatile favorite of the week.

I love Sam Patterson. I get why fans are excited about Sam Patterson. But, the guy was an underdog to Danny Barlow and Trey Waters for a reason: his horrendous 50% striking defense. His height and chin placement are asking to get slimed, but Michael “Venom” Page — aging into a staring contest generator — didn’t take any chances to do so.

Santiago Ponzinibbio might. Ponzi is certainly on the back nine, but a third-round loss to Daniel Rodriguez aged better after the Californian’s win over Kevin Holland, and a split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov should have gone his way.

Interestingly, “The Argentine Dagger” hasn’t been submitted in 39 pro fights, denying — in theory — one of Patterson’s most reliable paths to victory. The model’s 22.2% verdict is probably a fair middle ground when the prop is juiced.

I’ve said numerous times that some MMA bettors would rather die than bet the old guy. Pretty much all Ponzinibbio needs to be in the driver’s seat, and arguably be favored at UFC Abu Dhabi, is for his chin not to be total dust. These two’s high-level experience and success in longer fights aren’t even close.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Ponzi’s chin is so, so bad, but he’s better at literally everything if this fight is extended, and it’s -162 to start Round 2. If we get into the eighth minute, he’ll look -250, and Sam’s chin gives him an early puncher’s chance, too. I have to take the swing at this price.

Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Jacoby	Eligible
Said	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Both Walker brothers, Shara Magomedov, and Bogdan Guskov make GOR MMA’s stable of big UFC bodies pretty fearsome, and Muhammad Said is another.

As is the case several times over this weekend, Said — of the UAE — enters with a sparkly 6-0 record but relatively unproven level of competition. A 37-year-old Luis Henrique da Silva was last with UFC in 2017 after a 2-4 stint, and that’s who “Kubik” put down in his last fight with UAE Warriors.

I will say that Said’s hand speed and ability to close distance seem at a requisite level, but it’s been exclusively at distance. That’s a tough place to beat Dustin Jacoby on short notice.

“The Hanyak” didn’t get the White House spot his three-fight knockout streak deserved. Instead, he’s on a plane to Abu Dhabi in a fight UFC executives probably hope he loses. While Jacoby’s chin proved to be beatable against Dominick Reyes, Reyes is the only MMA fighter to put Jacoby down at distance in 32 pro fights.

Jacoby has fought eight fighters who have held a ranking at some point since his return to UFC in 2020, and his +1.48 SSR is stellar. Said has fought janitors and plumbers. Even if your hypothesis about the favorite’s chin and hand speed not being what they once were is correct, it’s a massive leap to assume this regional can-crusher puts down a tested veteran — especially without much of a wrestling threat.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is your film guy underdog of the week. I’ve just got too much respect for Jacoby’s distance management, athleticism, and chin. I put him in the “safe” parlay at -170 on Thursday and am adding the decision (+250) prop.

Valter Walker vs. Thomas Petersen

Heavyweight (265 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Walker	53.16%	40.90%	14.17%	26.72%	12.26%
Petersen	46.84%	17.69%	11.35%	6.34%	29.15%

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I nearly threw up from this model result, but Thomas Petersen was +235 at the conclusion of UFC Oklahoma City. He’s now +145. My process is clearly not alone.

Look, being a Valter Walker denier won’t make me many friends at Home of Fight. He’s good friends with my co-host, and he’s been winning fights in an exciting, predictable way with four straight Round 1 heel hook submissions within the worst grappling division in the sport. I can’t even rule out a fifth. But, at some point, the embarrassment will have to end with a guy training for them, and it could be Petersen.

Walker’s entire infrastructure crumbles outside of the cheesy grappling upside. His -0.85 SSR was mostly damaged by Lukasz Brzeski, one of the worst heavyweights ever, and good luck to him wrestling offensively into “The Train” from Minnesota.

Petersen is someone who will always hold value in betting markets because his lowlights — emphatic KO losses against Shamil Gaziev and Vitor Petrino — are so memorable. But, the grinder upset Guilherme Pat after dropping him at striking distance. He smothered a physical freak with power, Mohammed Usman. Those just aren’t as memorable.

Walker’s cardio has been extremely suspect beyond Round 1 finishes, and I generally don’t love the goofiness he shares with his brother. He’s on social media for the wrong reasons. If Petersen isn’t quickly tapped here, every Walker parlay bettor will be clenched. That’s probably a sign he’s a bad bet.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: It’s my birthday weekend, and I don’t want Valter Walker chalk to ruin it. Petersen is obviously the side. Everything in my core screams to fade the highlight leg lock merchant with a bad gas tank. I do think Valter could wane badly for a (T)KO here, but I’m sticking to the model’s decision recommendation at +380.