UFC Baku Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Fiziev vs. Torres

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Baku. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Baku: Fiziev vs. Torres, taking place at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan on Saturday. The fights start at 9:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Baku Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Abdullayev	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Nascimento	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Weight classes matter so much that I’m asking myself if a horrible welterweight can withstand a decent lightweight prospect.

The former is Tahir Abdullayev, who got the call in his home country. He was born in Baku. There was a real attempt to make this a setup spot. However, we’ve seen with Zarrukh Adashev and Askar Mozharov from this region that their regional MMA scene can be awful. I’m talking awful.

Abdullayev is a portly, stocky kickboxer who relies on explosive actions and shines from top position. He’s gotten finishes just from opponents having no idea how to deal with that crushing mass. I do think that’s noteworthy, given that Jefferson Nascimento is a 155er by trade.

Nascimento is the LFA lightweight title-holder with a perfect pro record (13-0). His game is built on devastating punches and upright hooks thrown in combination. He’s a plus grappler and has shown five-round gas in LFA.

Speed is such a huge factor in this fight. If Nascimento can plausibly deal with the power advantages, I think he’ll have Abdullayev — with questionable cardio — as a punching bag of sorts, desperately trying to get things to the ground.

Unless the hometown guy lands clean with fresh, I am confused why they’d do this to him in his backyard.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: It’s crazy to me that a fight at this low of a level is favored to go deep into Round 3. I just think Abdullayev is a fraud, having played Nasciemento’s moneyline (+110) on Wednesday and adding R2/R3 knockout sprinkles on Friday.

Bekzat Almakhan vs. Jean Matsumoto

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Bekzat Almakhan	Jean Matsumoto
Win	27.5%	72.5%
Win By Finish	10.7%	21.1%
Win by KO	9.1%	1.9%
Win by Sub	1.6%	19.2%
Win by Dec	16.8%	51.4%

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I debated not modeling this fight. Bekzat Almakhan barely has enough eligible time, and it’s been against a Nurmagomedov and a Topuria. Jesus.

However, I deeply believe Jean Matsumoto is a top-10 bantamweight and deserves this sort of convincing result. He absolutely topped Farid Basharat — a similarly undefeated, dominant force — outside of a pretty bad robbery, but that’s the razor’s edge he lives on as a smaller guy with little power, per a 0.00% knockdown rate (KD%).

Matsumoto’s advantage is his volume, using low kicks and combinations to attempt 13.82 significant strikes per minute. His land rates are pretty poor due to battles with Basharat, Rob Font, Miles Johns, and Brad Katona. Those are four defensively sturdy strikers.

Almakhan is abundantly talented, and his power flashed with knockdowns of both Katona and Umar Nurmagomedov. However, I’m not ready to crown the older Alexasandre Topuria, and the efficiency metrics are just so bad. His 34% striking accuracy and 36% striking defense are both bottom five in the division (min. 3 starts).

Many will give the Kazakh fighter a total pass. His performance was still below expectations, and Matsumoto isn’t a massive step back. Jean, 26, is right in a gigantic improvement window, too.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The model believes in a dominant Matsumoto decision, and he’s due for one. I think he just beat a tougher guy. I prefer Matsumoto’s -3.5 point spread (+165) in case he runs into a submission or traps Almakhan in a bad position here.

Daniil Donchenko vs. Theodor Berggren

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Donchenko	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Berggren	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Good on Theodor Berggren for answering the call. Andreas Gustafsson pulled out of this potential sacrifice. I actually give the youngster a better chance after seeing Gus’ chin last bout.

Overall, though, this matchup is about Tiger Muay Thai’s Daniil Donchenko, a teammate of Rafael Fiziev, who seems to have combined his explosive strikes at distance with a bit more wrestling and grappling. The 24-year-old has fought beyond his years to win TUF 33 and plaster Alex Morono for a +60 striking differential in his official UFC debut.

There will be quibbling that he didn’t put an aging Morono out cold, but seeing the per-minute performance against a technical kickboxer like that for 15 minutes was helpful. We know about the power. We know about the top position. We didn’t know about the gas.

Obviously, Berggren is climbing uphill, and he’s just raw at 11 pro fights. He leaves his chin up when throwing certain strikes. He was submitted by UFC flameout Justin Burlinson just 19 months ago in Cage Warriors.

Most importantly, both of these guys rely on pressure on tape, and it’d be a huge upset if Berggren commanded the center amidst UFC nerves as a huge underdog. I’m afraid it might be a short night if he’s backing up.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Donchenko is a beast. It’s stunning to me that his Round 1 prop (+200) was so playable in a short-notice matchup with a guy who has submission defense and technical chin concerns. I feel like it’s a buy-low spot because Morono’s durability is underrated.

Kaan Ofli vs. Javier Reyes

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Ofli	Eligible
Reyes	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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It’s becoming pretty apparent that Javier Reyes fights are going to be must-see displays of violence.

Reyes completed a furious comeback at UFC Mexico after getting dropped early by Douglas Silva de Andrade in his UFC debut. This was after a 152-second knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS). I don’t really trust the Colombian’s chin, but his forward pressure and aggressiveness almost remind me of the headliner of this event, Manuel Torres.

We’ll see if Kaan Ofli has another upset in him, though. Ofli was the latest to catch Ricardo Ramos (8-7 UFC) sticking his neck in the proverbial cookie jar, and he flatly robbed Yizha despite a -20 striking differential at UFC 325 in Sydney.

Ofli is a grinder with little identity. His -1.01 striking success rate (SSR) illustrates issues at distance, and he’s landed just 7% of his takedown attempts in a growing sample. Reyes — if nothing else — has a clear identity, and it’s an organic match for a guy who has been dropped in two of his four UFC bouts.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: If I could bet Reyes to get dropped and still win this fight by knockout in the first 10 minutes, I would. Sort of like Torres, he’s a bit reckless, but Ofli is a flaky guy with chin concerns who has been winning in unsustainable ways.

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Nursulton Ruziboev	Andrey Pulyaev
Win	53.4%	46.6%
Win By Finish	24.2%	16.4%
Win by KO	18.1%	12.3%
Win by Sub	6.2%	4.1%
Win by Dec	29.2%	30.2%

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I’ve been on Clint MacLean’s show twice to disagree on just about everything. He and I are in lockstep on our feelings about Nursulton Ruziboev, though.

Ruziboev might be the Merriam-Webster definition of “padded record” in combat sports. Questionable pre-UFC competition has led to a 4-1 UFC stint that looks great, but his four wins are over guys who are a combined 14-17 in the promotion. That record would be worse if Brunno Ferreira, one of his victims, wasn’t playing a bit of the same game.

The Uzbekistani fighter is a tall, lanky guy with fast hands, but his SSR (-0.30) is negative, and we saw Joaquin Buckley win 30-26 when this guy was put on his back and only had a kimura sweep to answer. I like his gym, Renzo Gracie in Philly, but that is a frame/mass problem at its core.

I just don’t expect much in the way of takedowns for or against Russia’s Andrey Pulyaev. Pulyaev has been an overachiever since winning as a +205 underdog on DWCS, and he saw the full distance against both Christian Leroy Duncan and Ateba Gautier as a designed sacrifice.

Fighters like these two — at least 6’4″ — don’t usually fight at their same height and length. Whoever is more comfortable with that could easily gain an advantage, and I like my model’s result: a competitive Pulyaev effort. It’s pretty inarguable that Ruziboev is the second-worst striker he’s seen in a brief tenure.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Perhaps this line looks as it does due to Ruziboev’s superior finishing upside, but Pulyaev’s output against Gautier and Duncan would easily be Nursulton’s best efforts in UFC — win or loss. It’s a horrible look for Ruziboev that his SSR is negative, considering the cakewalk he’s had.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Julius Walker

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Yakhyaev	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Walker	Eligible

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Be careful here.

Perhaps it’s experience or just lifelong skepticism of “early highlight guy”, but there’s just very little we know about Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev other than his country of origin and three finishes of fighters who are a combined 2-9 in UFC. The Turkish fighter is explosive with highlight kicks and a solid grappling process, but that’s all we know.

Unfortunately for him, we’ve seen more of Julius Walker‘s shortcomings as he’s taken his lumps inside the rankings. Alonzo Menifield and Dustin Jacoby both returned to this with this week’s Meta AI implementation. Even so, “Juice Box” put up a valiant split-decision effort against Menifield and plucked Round 1 off Jacoby before the veteran found the button.

“The button” isn’t exactly hidden with Walker’s 43% striking defense, but it’s easy to see where this goes wrong for parlay bros, right? The American is a wrestle-and-box specialist who wants longer fights, and Yakhyaev hasn’t ever had one. Deep waters clearly favor one man here.

Considering the price, I think you have to play that angle. There’s no blood to squeeze from Yakhyaev’s Round 1 turnip.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Yakhyaev was stunned early and forced to grapple with Cerqueira, but he’s priced as an unbeatable superhero. If this fight improbably reaches Round 2, every Yakhyaev ticketholder will be sweating. Walker could shine in deep waters, yet his R3/DEC prop (+1100) is a longshot.

Farman Hasanov vs. Eric Nolan

Welterweight (170 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Hasanov	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Nolan	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This is probably the toughest fight on the entire card for me, and it’s probably due to respect for the gritty regional career of Eric Nolan.

Even dating back to a split decision loss to Ty Miller, Nolan has been one of the most “game” welterweights in Cage Fury Fighting Championships (CFFC) for years. “Night Time” brings an outstanding mix of looping power punches, traditional freestyle wrestling, and a strong fight IQ, adding knees and elbows where appropriate.

Nolan rocked Baisangur Susurkaev at middleweight on short notice before eventually succumbing to a combination of damage and fatigue in the process. The question is whether Azerbaijan’s Farman Hasanov is that same level of prospect to eventually find a similar result at 170 pounds.

Even though he’s from the home venue for Saturday’s match, Hasanov’s background is largely in the States. He trains at American Top Team and is undefeated in three LFA bouts against entry-level opponents. He’s more of a traditional chain wrestler with tighter, more technical hooks.

I’d actually give Nolan a slight edge in the standup here. He’s more confident and is willing to pressure. However, when looking at both’s regional grappling footage, Hasanov seems like a much more lethal threat from back control or mount. Think of his training partners on the mat at ATT in this 155-to-170-pound range. Combined with Nolan’s regional issues defending subs, that’s how I think this setup spot as the featured prelim might conclude.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I like Nolan, and he’s probably the better striker. But, he’s made positional mistakes defending submissions before, and Hasanov shines in backpack positions. I think there’s a reason the hometown guy’s submission prop (+400) is so short despite not having one as a pro.