UFC Belgrade DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Belgrade DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Belgrade: Medic vs. Rodriguez, taking place at the Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia on Saturday. The fights start at 10:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Belgrade: Medic vs. Rodriguez DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Daniel Rodriguez	69.58
Navajo Stirling	65.72
Mateusz Rebecki	63.95
Uros Medic	53.72
Bogdan Grad	44.97
Aleksandar Rakic	42.77
Marcin Tybura	41.36
Jan Blachowicz	41.13
Dusko Todorovic	40.60
Dennis Buzukja	37.60
Kyle Prepolec	37.35
Robert Valentin	12.11

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Mateusz Rebecki	3.14
Bogdan Grad	2.83
Dusko Todorovic	2.00
Navajo Stirling	0.92
Marcin Tybura	0.83
Jan Blachowicz	0.74
Aleksandar Rakic	0.72
Dennis Buzukja	0.50
Robert Valentin	0.44
Daniel Rodriguez	0.41
Uros Medic	0.24
Kyle Prepolec	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Uros Medic	1.48
Mateusz Rebecki	0.70
Navajo Stirling	0.63
Daniel Rodriguez	0.51
Aleksandar Rakic	0.48
Dennis Buzukja	0.36
Jan Blachowicz	0.35
Marcin Tybura	0.06
Robert Valentin	0.01
Dusko Todorovic	0.01
Kyle Prepolec	0.01
Bogdan Grad	0.01

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Robert Valentin	1.27
Jan Blachowicz	0.41
Mateusz Rebecki	0.41
Dusko Todorovic	0.22
Dennis Buzukja	0.17
Marcin Tybura	0.11
Daniel Rodriguez	0.10
Aleksandar Rakic	0.10
Kyle Prepolec	0.01
Bogdan Grad	0.01
Navajo Stirling	0.01
Uros Medic	0.00

 

UFC Belgrade: Medic vs. Rodriguez DFS Picks and Props to Target

Aleksandar Rakic Over 35.5 Significant Strikes

First of all, I love this move to heavyweight for Aleksandar Rakic. I also think it leans heavily toward a striking over in his weight class debut.

Rakic had a 0.82% knockdown rate (KD%) at light heavyweight, which will almost certainly drop moving up. It’s just a different galaxy of power, and he’s gone five fights without a knockdown as is. Natural heavyweights like Ante Delija and Tom Aspinall have clipped Marcin Tybura early, but I think that would be a bit surprising even with “Tybur” at 40 years old.

Really, this fight just needs length to hit the over. Rakic’s existing pace of 8.16 significant strikes attempted per minute is good, and I’m expecting both volume and efficiency to tick up without a weight cut.

This number is low enough that even Tybura’s desired clinch grind isn’t enough to dissuade me from a fight I’ve projected at 53.9% likely to go the full distance. This mark is 12 significant strikes per round. Anything but a Round 1 bonk should suffice.

Mateusz Rebecki Over 1.5 Takedowns

Memes about Mateusz Rebecki‘s favored status this week can keep coming. I wanted all of him in a bounce-back spot close to home.

Kyle Prepolec is pretty substantially awful over a long sample. His losses to Austin Hubbard and Benoit Saint Denis, where he surrendered a combined five takedowns, haven’t aged well. His overall 45% takedown D is awful. While an opportune cut put Drew Dober on upset alert, the Coloradan rebounded to hand the Canadian his 0-4 UFC record.

I just don’t think he’s got anything on Rebecki besides size, but that’ll help this prop. Prepolec is a big lightweight who hasn’t been finished in under 7 minutes in any start, and if Rebecki starts two rounds in this one, I have confidence he’ll score takedowns in both. He averages 6.35 takedowns per 15 minutes, and that includes brutal matchups to wrestle like Grant Dawson, Chris Duncan, and Loik Radzhabov. He took Mytybek Freaking Orolbai down three times.

The model’s median projection (3.14) is sort of a middle ground between one and a quick submission or a fight where Prepolec’s get-up game is on point, and the Polish fighter threatens a Merab-like effort. An opening line (if and when we get it) of 2.5 would be just fine.