Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa Images
If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Belgrade. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.
I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Belgrade: Medic vs. Rodriguez, taking place at the Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia on Saturday. The fights start at 10:00 a.m. EST.
UFC Belgrade Prelim Betting Picks and Props
Marina Spasic vs. Stephanie Luciano
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Spasic | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Luciano | Eligible |
This has Melisano-Barbosa vibes from two weeks ago with Stephanie Luciano in the blue corner.
I think Luciano, 26, has a ranked-level ceiling in UFC. Despite a Muay Thai background, she was thrust into a two-fight series with Talita Alencar to begin her octagon career, survived, and thrived. I’d argue she should have won both bouts. “Sampage” grinded out a split decision on her before the Brazilian splattered Ravena Oliveira in Edmonton last fall, where Luciano was the one pulling out the BJJ.
Especially in women’s MMA, that high-level experience is golden, and it’s precisely what Marina Spasic lacks. Even so, the hometown fighter lost a decision to Russia’s Marina Merchuk — a 7-2 pro with no sniffs from UFC or PFL — a year ago. She was also only 2-2 as a pro kickboxer before perhaps dropping levels to MMA with a kickboxing base.
A brief film study of Spasic isn’t particularly impressive, either. She’s very much in or out with a few faints. She’s larger than her opponents from Brave FC; Luciano will have at least 2 inches in height and reach this weekend.
Some MMA cappers don’t value the level of competition, but it forces you to round out your skill set. Annoying grinds against Alencar and Hughes already paid dividends against Ravena Oliveira. I think Luciano’s grappling game is a huge reason to believe she finds a way to get her hand raised in this one.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I ended up playing Luciano’s sub prop (+470) at a nice number. It could be early or late. Spasic’s grappling footage basically doesn’t exist, so I’m wondering if they lazily matched her up, thinking this is still a striker-versus-striker matchup.
Jovan Leka vs. Alexander Poppeck
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Leka | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Poppeck | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
The UFC was kind not to sacrifice Jovan Leka to the wolves. They sent Johnny Walker home from a canceled fight rather than do that to the Serbian faithful.
Leka didn’t even earn a contract on Season 9 of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) because of a sloppy grind of a decision, but it’s amazing how these guys get a call to fill out cards in their home country. The 24-year-old landed just 1.60 significant strikes per minute as evidence of the entertainment and ability to get away from Azamat Nuftillaev on the show.
Alexander Poppeck is no setup spot, though. Unlike Leka, the German has legitimate MMA experience, including an 8-1 record in OKTAGON, a Czech-Slovak promotion that has sent plenty of talent to the UFC. He’s lost regionally to Jamahal Hill, Dusko Todorovic, and PFL alums Rob Wilkinson and Taylor Johnson.
The explosive wrestler with excellent ground-and-pound has been on the periphery of the UFC for nearly a decade. His last finish loss was in 2019 on DWCS to Hill, so I think this is probably overdue.
Leka had just a 55% takedown defense against a guy who I think could be a total can. Poppeck’s lack of size might be a bit of an obstacle, but he’s got a speed advantage when the Serbian seemed pretty blobby and harmless when facing the first legitimate opponent of his career.
Poppeck’s entire career could be summarized as shrinking when the moment rises, but I like a ‘dog shot.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Leka’s size and Poppeck’s poor submission reputation will make for a hairy first five minutes, but I think if the actual athlete of these two survives it, he could be in the driver’s seat. I played moneyline (+175) on Tuesday with late KO sprinkles on Friday. The Serbian’s cardio was so bad on the Contender Series.
Nino Milosevic vs. Hailey Cowan
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Milosevic | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Cowan | Eligible |
I put up a Twitter poll in bad faith because…what are we doing here? Nino Milosevic might well be a multi-time UFC winner waiting in the wings, but even so, her betting line this weekend is ridiculous.
Like Spasic, Milosevic’s flag is the driving force behind action more than her resume, which is also sparse on high-level talent. Her toughest test is free on YouTube if you want to leap to different conclusions than I did, but she was facing an undersized, inexperienced Dina Osman, who had never been outside the first six minutes. An exhausted Osman shot sloppy takedowns into trouble during all three rounds.
I suppose it’s not crazy that Hailey Cowan might do the same, but I didn’t really see much to work with besides the quick sprawls to those sloppy shots. Her striking was rudimentary, she didn’t pummel underhooks on the cage, and she spent the whole fight on Osman’s back with no finish.
Meanwhile, Cowan — someone I never dreamed of betting in UFC — is clearly making progress at Xtreme Couture. She took Round 1 off of Alice Pereira before the sensational striker found a finish in Round 2. Striking range routinely isn’t Cowan’s friend, but a -0.26 striking success rate (SSR) isn’t as bad as I thought. It could even be an advantage here.
Maybe this line is correct, but Milosevic can’t finish her dinner. Here’s a decision with a 2-7 pro. It would be really embarrassing if Cowan had hung around this long if she somehow lost inside the distance here.
I’m trusting the best gym in the sport to give her a gameplan to survive at that level and win with her hands.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Good God. Did I really bet on Hailey Cowan? I really did. I hit the moneyline (+360), decision (+600), and split decision (+1100) angles. I’d trust Eric Nicksick to turn me into a multi-time UFC heavyweight winner if I ever hit the gym.
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Kyle Prepolec
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Rebecki | 75.37% | 55.18% | 29.46% | 25.73% | 20.18% |
| Prepolec | 24.63% | 7.06% | 4.82% | 2.23% | 17.58% |
Any argument for Kyle Prepolec here starts with a criticism of Mateusz Rebecki. He’s probably a pretty good favorite.
Prepolec has done nothing in four UFC appearances. Austin Hubbard controlled him for 5:42 in an easy division; Benoit Saint Denis dominated to secure a sub; and Drew Dober overcame a minor cut on his leg to stop the Canadian in the final round. He’s got a terrible -2.44 SSR and poor takedown defense (45%).
The one feather in his cap at UFC Belgrade is size against Rebecki, a 5’7″ tank. Unfortunately, the 33-year-old from Poland has never realized the success many thought he could have off DWCS. He’s been bloodied and battered by Diego Ferreira, Chris Duncan, and Ludovit Klein in three wars — but three losses. It’s really when he’s had a dominant grappling edge that he’s been able to find success, but that — obviously — didn’t come against teammate Grant Dawson.
It likely will here, though. Prepolec has shown virtually no ground game in UFC. My model’s faint amount of respect for the underdog does come from Rebecki’s rocky tenure, but his size and scar tissue aren’t large enough concerns for think Prepolec competes. I’m leaning on the model in prop markets.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Even though Rebecki’s ITD and submission props fell out of model range, I still took small darts at R2/R3 (+210) and those submission sprinkles. His lack of size could mean this takes a bit…but it’s coming.
Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad
Featherweight (145 pounds) – “Austin’s Fight of the Night”
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Buzukja | 40.85% | 18.51% | 17.20% | 1.31% | 22.34% |
| Grad | 59.15% | 26.91% | 20.06% | 6.84% | 32.24% |
Austria’s Bogdan Grad is technically the home side at UFC Belgrade, but Dennis Buzukja has Albanian roots, so it’s not a bad spot in the world for him, either.
Level of competition is a huge factor in this fight for me — and should be for you. We might arrive at different conclusions. I just don’t think Grad’s schedule will be what many expect, as I’m bearish on Luke Riley, Michael Aswell Jr., and Muhammad Naimov. The dominant win over Lucas Alexander, now cut, isn’t really a factor, and I forgive him fully for a DWCS loss to Tom “Big Train” Nolan at lightweight.
Meanwhile, Buzukja’s schedule has been absurd. He’s drawn Jamall Emmers, Sean Woodson, Francis Marshall, and Marcio Barbosa, who put him in a body bag as Barbosa will many.
Losing to these chalk “setup” spots week after week, I’ve made some adjustments to my model to lean more on analytical factors like age, momentum, cardio, and attrition than on raw stats. Grad certainly has those, but it’s Buzukja (-0.58 SSR) who has outperformed Grad (-1.00 SSR) on a per-minute basis against a tougher schedule. Plus, Buzukja’s gym, “The Goat Shed”, is one of my favorites from South Florida.
A previous version of my model might have favored “The Bazooka”. He’s still a quality look at plus money.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The total on this fight is a little crazy, no? Grad has almost no punching power. Dennis Buzukja took 12 minutes with Conor Matthews. But, something about the underdog (+165) calls to me here; Grad has yet to deliver a truly clean performance.
Mark Vologdin vs. Borislav Nikolic
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Vologdin | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Nikolic | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
From what we’ve seen from Mark Vologdin, it seems like a matchup with “Zombee” is a heavy betting favorite for “Fight of the Night”. I wouldn’t count on it.
Russia’s Vologdin is a 5’3″ ball of muscle built on toughness, durability, and modern medicine. He’s taken inhuman beatings with several flush, direct shots to the chin from Juan Adrian Martinetti and John Castaneda but saw the final bell in both fights. Unfortunately, the DWCS loser also dropped his debut, and “fun” doesn’t stay on the roster forever.
To spoil the end, a fight with Borislav Nikolic might be his least winnable yet. Martinetti and Casteneda were thinner and/or smaller 135ers with previous durability issues. Nikolic has fought at featherweights and catchweights in his regional career, carrying real power behind solid boxing fundamentals. I thought he showed great cardio and takedown defense in his last bout, as well.
I’ve typed this numerous times in this chat about Priscilla Cacheoria, Jose Daniel Medina, and others. Vologdin’s -3.07 SSR — predicated on a 40% striking defense where he’s absorbed double-digit significant strikes per minute — is such a negative outlier that he’ll never be a consistent minute-winner in UFC. There might be a meme or two, but this is not a bet you want to make.
The Russian is only 26, but attrition is mounting quickly. I think this is a fun, violent affair until Nikolic capitalizes — as others could not.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’m specifically calling a club-and-sub for Nikolic against bantamweight’s resident heavy bag. He’s easily the biggest, most powerful Vologdin opponent yet. I’ve really tried to stay off Twitter to keep my opinions pure, but I’m guessing Vologdin is a public ‘dog this week.
Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Elliott | Eligible |
| Oliveira | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
We’ll welcome Season 9 of DWCS’s top performer to the octagon on Saturday.
Michael Oliveira had the most jaw-dropping performance last summer, dropping Victor Valenzuela thrice in a bombing of mass destruction. The fact that Valenzuela himself is already a UFC winner only adds to the lore that “PQD” is building after a perfect run in LFA.
What makes the 6’1″ Brazilian so impressive? It’s length, power, and athleticism combined with razor-sharp kickboxing fundamentals. The nearest thing I could compare it to would be PFL’s Thad Jean training with Alex Pereira and Yousri Belgaroui for a couple of years.
It’s a shame that Oban Elliott is on the wrong side of his debut. The promotion seems to have given up on “The Welsh Gangster”, whose knockoff Chael Sonnen impression has been a bit stalled following grappling blowouts at the hands of Seokhyeon Ko and Jonathan Micallef. In summary, Elliott’s three UFC wins came over opponents a combined 3-5 against everyone else. I probably overrated him.
Issues with getting off his back mean that UFC is forced to match him with strikers, and that’s where Elliott might struggle. His +1.38 SSR is fine now, but he was badly rocked on DWCS and by Val Woodburn before this recent run of grapplers. He’s ceding six inches of reach to Oliveira.
Valenzuela was a longer, more voluminous fighter. I think Elliott has to wrestle to compete in this fight, but it’s scored so unfavorably that I can’t see him getting the nod unless it’s a shutout. I think the Wales product can use his solid striking defense (61%) to run for the hills and survive all 15 minutes, but that wouldn’t be a winning effort.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Five-minute sweat against this terrifying force? Always sign me up. Elliott doesn’t quit on himself with quality head defense. But, Oliveira is special and unnatural — in every sense of the word. I played Oliveira & Fight Starts R2 (-120) with late (T)KO sprinkles.
Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev
Lightweight (155 pounds) – Featured Prelim
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Klein | Eligible |
| Musayev | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
Have any of you had the toxic sports betting relationship I’ve had with Ludovit Klein?
I’ve cashed underdog tickets, had parlays spoiled, and gotten dumbfounding refunds and draws from Serbia’s “Mr. Highlight”, which might be an ironic nickname with no UFC finishes in his current division. Obviously, Klein is extremely skilled, but the former 145er always feels a bit down on size and length. His +0.28 SSR is fairly pedestrian, and I’m more concerned about him spending over a third of the fight on his back — like he did against Rebecki and Mateusz Gamrot — than successfully increasing his own average of 1.37 takedowns per 15 minutes landed.
In Belgrade, I’d have presumed a shameless matchup designed to get him a win, but Tofiq Musayev is far from that. The former RIZIN champion upset Ignacio Bahamondes in one of the bloodiest fights of 2026 thus far, and you can sort of throw out a debut submission loss to Myktybek Orolbai, considering Orolbai missed weight and now fights at 170 pounds.
7:51 in top control — plus some nasty ground-and-pound — carried Musayev to his first win over Ignacio Bahamondes. Klein also has a less violent version of that same result.
Tasked with a brutal decision, I think this fight should be a bit closer to a pick ’em than it is.
Musayev’s vitamin routine seems on point, meaning he could really dominate with top control at UFC Belgrade. At distance, I trust Klein’s chin more, but I don’t really trust his output. At the end of the day, I just have a hard time trusting someone at -230 who carried Roosevelt Roberts to a decision, lost to Michael Trizano, and last finished AJ Cunningham.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: If Klein wasn’t flying the Serbian flag, isn’t this a pick ’em? He doesn’t really separate. Musayev is incredibly well-rounded. Both guys are up to date on their vitamins. I prefer Musayev’s +3.5 spread (-120) in case the judges get weird, but the moneyline (+200) and decision (+500) work, too.
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