UFC Oklahoma City DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Oklahoma City DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Oklahoma City: Du Plessis vs. Usman, taking place at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Oklahoma City: Du Plessis vs. Usman DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Kamaru Usman	62.16
Dricus Du Plessis	57.36
Jared Cannonier	51.36
Tabatha Ricci	48.43
Christian Leroy Duncan	47.09
Fatima Kline	45.36

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Kamaru Usman	4.44
Tabatha Ricci	2.90
Dricus Du Plessis	1.58
Fatima Kline	1.53
Christian Leroy Duncan	0.53
Jared Cannonier	0.49

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Kamaru Usman	0.56
Dricus Du Plessis	0.51
Christian Leroy Duncan	0.48
Jared Cannonier	0.36
Fatima Kline	0.28
Tabatha Ricci	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Dricus Du Plessis	0.90
Kamaru Usman	0.13
Tabatha Ricci	0.10
Jared Cannonier	0.01
Christian Leroy Duncan	0.00
Fatima Kline	0.00

 

UFC Oklahoma City: Du Plessis vs. Usman DFS Picks and Props to Target

Jared Cannonier Over 34.5 Significant Strikes

This isn’t an extremely voluminous week for model results, but I feel comfortable with this one.

Perhaps this is Christian Leroy Duncan’s coming-out party, but Jared Cannonier continues to hang around the middleweight rankings like a rock in the division’s shoe. He’s lost three of his last four but turned back Gregory Rodrigues the last time he was counted out.

Ultimately, I’m leaning on the model’s 59.1% chance that this fight with Duncan will go the full 15 minutes. Cannonier had topped 53 significant strikes in nine straight bouts before a patented Michael Page starting contest. Duncan’s striking defense (52%) is fairly average, and Cannonier landed at least 13 leg kicks on Rodrigues, Nassourdine Imavov, and Caio Borralho. There will be freebies.

Duncan is +175ish to win by knockout, but he’s yet to even knock down one of the two ranked fighters he’s faced. Marco Tulio is very chinny, and it has Duncan in an extremely overvalued spot compared to his 0.75% knockdown rate.

Tabatha Ricci Over 1.5 Takedowns

I actually don’t have this prop on either Underdog or PrizePicks yet, but it’s fine as a straight pick ’em at 2.5. I’m expecting 1.5 will come with a 0.80x multiplier or so, which is a great value.

Fatima Kline has been appointed — even by yours truly — as next up at strawweight, but we have reason to believe her wrestling defense isn’t totally invincible. Jasmine Jasudavicius’ four takedowns — up in weight — were one thing, but Viktoriia Dudakova landed a pair before the Russian’s patented death gas.

Tabatha Ricci attempts 6.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, and that should actually rise because she’s going to be so far behind at distance here. It might get desperate. It might even lead to her getting finished. But, those concerns don’t outweigh the projected volume and physiological problems defending takedowns that Kline’s 5’6″ frame presents.