UFC Vegas 118 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes and Takedown Props for Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Vegas 118 DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike and takedown projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs. Bonfim, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Significant Strike Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Gabriel Bonfim	55.01
Priscila Cachoeira	47.70
Belal Muhammad	47.68
Tom Nolan	42.41
Bruno Silva	40.31
Ketlen Souza	37.95
Chelsea Chandler	37.54
Matt Schnell	33.70
Edmen Shahbazyan	32.21
Alessandro Costa	32.03
Fares Ziam	29.49
Edgar Chairez	28.51
Ariane Carnelossi	27.88
Brendan Allen	27.70
Jordan Leavitt	14.74
Joanderson Brito	13.24

Significant Strike Prop to Target in DFS

Joanderson Brito Under 23.5 Significant Strikes

Jordan Leavitt typically doesn’t let fights play out in a manner in which Joanderson Brito can rack up significant strikes in this fight.

“The Monkey King” isn’t really just a grappling specialist. He’s a grappling-only fighter. The most distance strikes he’s ever allowed were 87 in a bizarro kickboxing match with Trey Ogden, who has still never been taken down in UFC.

Of course, we know Brito doesn’t have that same record. Brito’s balloon just popped after a disappointing decision loss to Sabatini, where he ceded 4 takedowns and 13:47 in control time. Even during his last fight against newcomer Isaac Thomson on short notice, Thomson landed 4 takedowns. It’s a bonafide, verified weakness entering a matchup with one of the best grapplers in the game.

Leavitt attempts 9.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s going to keep coming — even if he walks into a Brito strike or a dangerous guillotine attempt, which is how Brito defeated Jonathan Pearce. Either of those results also doesn’t produce a ton of significant strikes.

The projected striking totals for both of these guys are very low, but Leavitt’s fight with Yadier del Valle featured 30 total significant strikes, and Brito’s with Sabatini matched that number.

UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Takedown Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Bruno Silva	2.57
Jordan Leavitt	2.56
Joanderson Brito	2.15
Gabriel Bonfim	1.95
Belal Muhammad	1.72
Ketlen Souza	1.27
Edmen Shahbazyan	1.14
Fares Ziam	1.04
Brendan Allen	0.89
Alessandro Costa	0.82
Ariane Carnelossi	0.77
Tom Nolan	0.62
Chelsea Chandler	0.43
Priscila Cachoeira	0.24
Matt Schnell	0.23
Edgar Chairez	0.00

Takedown Prop to Target in DFS

Brendan Allen Under 1.5 Takedowns

For full transparency, I wanted to play Bruno Silva’s over here. Hopefully, it’ll be in Friday’s “flex” lays that I give out in the Home of Fight Discord server.

This was still one of the model’s most peculiar projections on the board, and it comes down to Edmen Shahbazyan having really elite takedown defense when fresh. “The Golden Boy” stuffed 6 of 8 takedowns from Anthony Hernandez in Round 1, and both Derek Brunson (1-for-3), Andre Petroski (0-for-3), and Andre Muniz (1-for-3) didn’t have much more success. This was also during Shahbazyan’s development window before he received more seasoning at Xtreme Couture.

A line this low for Brendan Allen, should we see a full fight, would be a bit unnerving. He attempts 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a decent clip of them (42%). Of course, the fight is -225 to not go the distance, and the model (63.1% likely to end early) also believes it’s a violent spot.

Allen’s projection implies closer to -347 on this under if correct, and it’s a plus-money payout on DFS sites where available as of Thursday.