Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa Images
If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Vegas 119. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.
I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs. Horiguchi, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs. Horiguchi Prelim Betting Picks and Props
Shane Collins vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Collins | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Tanzilovi | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
Was Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) full?
I just don’t understand how Shane Collins gets a pass — even as an undefeated, top-shelf American prospect from Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat promotion. The 7-0 professional is a densely built, 5’10” featherweight with knockout power, slick boxing combinations, and an opportunistic, evolving ground game.
The problem is that Collins doesn’t even have a DWCS-level measuring stick on his resume, even if the California-level regional competition of other prospects has been fine. Otari Tanzilovi, as a DWCS flameout, is the right sort of opponent for him.
Tanzilovi dropped a split decision against Josias Musasa (0-2 UFC) as a -210 underdog. The Georgian had no issues with Musasa’s power, failed to meaningfully separate with only 4 takedowns on 16 attempts (3:51 in control time) and no submission attempts. Even in victory, the stalling probably wouldn’t have curried Dana White’s favor. It was surprising, given the guy who was mostly a striker regionally.
On principle, UFC wants Collins to win here. He’s the more exciting archetype, and they’re forcing Tanzilovi to fight up in weight.
However, the underdog hasn’t been finished in 11 pro fights and showed good striking defense (55%) on DWCS. At this stage, I actually think Merab’s training partner has fewer paths (cardio!) to completely bottom out in this fight, and it wouldn’t be the first time the promotion’s scouts have epically failed to build a regional prospect.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I really do understand the Collins appeal, but this is a DWCS-level fight when Tanzilovi’s per-minute stats against Musasa were solid. This quickly became ‘dog or pass as the week progressed, and I did not pass at +180.
Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Shahbazyan | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Chokheli | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
The bloodlust from UFC matchmakers is pretty evident in this one. We’ve got a DWCS flameout against a Bellator flameout, and both have a path to quick victories.
Leon Shahbazyan joins his brother, Edmen, in the UFC after four straight wins, including one over promotional alum Aaron Phillips. You’ll notice a theme with them: 11 of his 12 pro victories are by submission. However, there’s also a theme in his losses — especially at this level. Phil Rowe and Ryan Loder were two of the four pros to knock him out. His chin seems to be a huge liability at either 170 or 185 pounds, and his striking defense (32%) was awful against Rowe.
However, it’s not like Levan Chokheli‘s submission game is well-tested. He’s 0-1 in that area despite an 11-1 record to the knockout. Chokheli has faced UFC alumni Lorenz Larkin (5-5) and Sabah Homasi (0-3) in recent bouts, losing by (T)KO to Larkin.
If this were simply a test of skill, I think Shahbazyan’s standup isn’t bad offensively. The problem is his defense, which should invite openings for Chokheli to land a massive blow. From there, if the underdog survives, I rate the Georgian as a submission liability, getting caught in multiple armbars by Bellator’s Goiti Yamauchi very quickly.
The moneyline here is probably a joke. The fight starts on the feet, but any ground sequence immediately plays into the American’s hands. Especially when factoring in debut jitters, it seems hard to believe this fight isn’t stopped in Round 1, though.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I snagged this fight to not start Round 2 at -135, and it’s fine up to -150. This is a regional-level fight where both guys have a clear, obvious path to an early win. I think the only reason it was scheduled was bloodlust on the promoters’ part.
Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Rosa | 45.57% | 7.01% | 2.57% | 4.44% | 38.56% |
| Santos | 54.43% | 24.01% | 3.40% | 20.61% | 30.42% |
This is quietly a big one in a women’s 135-pound division that continues to deny real contenders. Jackie Cavalcanti couldn’t hang, and now, it’s a litmus test for Luana Santos.
Santos has had zero size issues since moving up from flyweight in two bantamweight bouts, submitting Tainara Lisboa and handling Melissa Croden for 9:21 in control time. The Brazilian’s battles with cardio at 125 pounds were never sustainable, as evidenced by her loss to “King” Casey O’Neill in a track meet. This is a similar test: Karol Rosa.
Rosa lands 5.88 significant strikes per minute with 56% accuracy and has a +1.29 striking success rate (SSR). It is extremely telling that my model doesn’t like her despite these key stats. She’s gone to a decision in all 12 UFC starts. Per a 0.19% knockdown rate (KD%), they’re pitter-patters that don’t even really score.
The Brazilian’s entry-level takedown D is solid (70%), but she invented my “black belt bought at Walmart” joke by failing to use said BJJ black belt to get up against Sara McMann, Norma Dumont, and Ailin Perez. Each of those ladies had at least four minutes of control against her.
Santos’ standup is by far the best of that group — in addition to the ground game most will point to here. Really, all of Rosa’s last six wins have all come against women without a ground threat. Optically, I think she falls behind in these close fights.
My model’s verdict looms large here, as Santos, 26, keeps getting better.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Of course, Santos’ moneyline (+110) was an early target when she was an underdog. It’s still fine at -110. I’ll lose a little money on her submission prop (+800) as I usually do in this division, too.
Gaston Bolanos vs. Michael Aswell Jr.
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Bolanos | 37.79% | 3.38% | 1.80% | 1.58% | 34.42% |
| Aswell Jr. | 62.21% | 37.28% | 24.33% | 12.95% | 24.92% |
I want to hop on the Michael Aswell Jr. train this weekend. I really do. The price on this fight just doesn’t make sense.
“The Texas Kid” has made plenty of fans between a wild DWCS fight with Bogdan Grad, a sliming of Lucas Almeida, and a competitive, fun fight with England’s Luke Riley earlier this year. Overall, though, Aswell has been in a ton of competitive fights against poor competition like those three and Bolaji Oki, who hold a combined 7-9 UFC record. He also lost to Yadier del Valle (2-1 UFC) on the regional scene.
Gaston Bolanos has a fatal flaw, but we’ll see if it costs him in this matchup. Bolanos is a horrible grappler, sporting a 42% takedown defense and getting subbed in three of his five pro fights. That’s not really the Texan boxer’s game.
At distance, Bolanos’ +0.88 SSR is actually better than Aswell’s (+0.36). He’s had to face Marcus McGhee in this sample, too. He’s also moving up from bantamweight, increasing a potential speed advantage. At 33, he’s probably got the favorable side of “experience” over “attrition” here, as well.
Aswell Jr.’s insane volume (18.55 significant strikes attempted per minute) should theoretically overwhelm opponents, but Grad, Oki, and Riley all found offensive success of their own in those openings. Plus, the Peruvian might have a takedown threat after a competitive affair with Cortavious Romious, where he landed a pair against the good athlete.
The experienced underdog could have a lot of parlays sweating if he proves early that he can keep pace.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I didn’t want to disparage Aswell, a friend of our show, on the air. But, he hasn’t merited this price tag against several very beatable opponents, and the Riley effort was poor. Think how close this model result would be if not for a submission outcome that I don’t actually think Aswell will pursue. I think parlay bettors will be clenching hard if this finds the scorecards.
Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Nascimento | 65.40% | 27.60% | 1.29% | 26.31% | 37.80% |
| Raposo | 34.60% | 3.97% | 1.21% | 2.76% | 30.63% |
I mentioned it before this matchup was canceled in April, but Allan Nascimento might be one of the most unheralded fighters on the entire UFC roster.
He’s 4-1 with the promotion outside of a split decision loss to Tagir Ulanbekov, claiming Jafel Filho, Cody Durden, and Jake Hadley as victims of note. “Puro Osso” is a developing striker (+0.53 SSR) as a top-five divisional threat with his jiu-jitsu, averaging 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. I love this matchup to test him against New England wrestle-and-box specialist Mitch Raposo.
Raposo has dramatically overperformed expectations against Andre Lima, Sumudaeji, and Azat Maksum. The latter lost to Raposo after failing 12 of 19 takedown attempts while adding little to the striking offense, but the quality of that win deserves skepticism when the highly touted Kazak prospect should have gone 0-4 in UFC if a split decision against Tyson Nam (-36 striking differential) was scored properly.
Raposo’s gym, The New England Cartel, is notorious for prioritizing BJJ defense over winning the fight. Think of Calvin Kattar and Rob Font over the years. It’ll be interesting if the Chute Box prospect can crack the defensive code and make his way to his signature backpack, but at distance, I honestly favor Nascimento, too. He’s got a five-inch reach edge and lit Durden up there. Raposo (-0.92 SSR) has analytically struggled at that range.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Nascimento!!! I can’t believe this line moved away from him this week. His standup was much-improved against both Durden and Filho, and I think he’s — at worst — got the same takedown threat as Maksum. The model is fine with both submission and decision, but I can’t fade a Puro Osso backtake.
Bea Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Mesquita | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Mullins | Eligible |
As mentioned with Rosa, the women’s bantamweight division is so desperate for juice. I’ve identified Bea Mesquita as a serious title threat from her very first steps into the octagon.
The extremely credentialed BJJ specialist mopped both Irina Alekseeva and Montse Rendon in her first two fights, and the evolution into an MMA specialist showed improvement as she dropped Rendon with her hands. At 5’4″ listed (and probably 5’6″ in actuality), Mesquita is a tank for the division who has shown no durability concerns and minimal resistance getting things into her office on the mat.
Melissa Mullins, on paper, is an interesting step up in competition due to an 85% striking defense. Mesquita’s cardio and wrestling haven’t really been put through a stress test, but Mullins’ two wins over Alekseeva and Klaudia Sygula — notorious for a lack of a ground game — inspire very little hope of any meaningful UFC run. She turns 35 in a couple of months.
This is the first fight of Mullins’ life where she’ll likely have to rely on a striking advantage, and I can’t help but remember the fighter who flaked out against Nora Cornolle and got dismantled by Dariya Zheleznykova.
I sort of buried the lede by failing to mention Rendon had a 100% takedown D before running into “The Lady GOAT”. Mesquita’s physique and ground game seem to, similarly to Kayla Harrison, be levels above any of her competitors in UFC’s weakest division. Mullins has shown too many warts to inspire confidence that she can stuff the shots and is the one to expose the Brazilian contender.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Death, taxes, and me playing Bia Mesquita (T)KO at +500. The ground-and-pound tendency has shown up twice and yet to cash. A fragile Mullins might find the door when she realizes she’s in trouble after five minutes.
Andre Lima vs. Kevin Borjas
Flyweight (125 pounds) – Featured Prelim
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Lima | 76.41% | 37.42% | 14.33% | 23.09% | 38.99% |
| Borjas | 23.59% | 4.83% | 3.92% | 0.91% | 18.76% |
Even with this convincing model result in tow, I’m not sure Andre Lima has proved enough to be the largest favorite on Saturday’s card.
Lima, 27, is improving with each passing fight, but the Daniel Barez win that came 15 months ago seems a bit hollow as Luis Gurule (1-4 UFC) did roughly the same. Since he was bit by Igor Severino to win by DQ in a fight that was fading away from him, “Mascote” has sent back Barez, Mitch Raposo, and Felipe dos Santos. Meh.
Certainly, his toughest opponent to date is Kevin Borjas, which seems insane given the Peruvian’s 1-4 record. However, he’s had to face Alessando Costa, Josh Van, and Imanol Rodriguez. That might be three schedule “Ls” for the Brazilian, too.
Analytically, Lima’s +1.57 SSR has shone against worse competition. The level of competition is just a fractional component of the model. Borjas (-1.68 SSR) has struggled against ranked guys. However, if “El Gallo Negro” can avoid the grappling exchanges, Lima does not push a high pace. His cardio has been problematic. Borjas has a one-inch edge in reach.
This fight just goes to show how overpriced most experienced UFC favorites are. Lima, seemingly, has every edge on paper, but this line is too steep to support him — other than a small submission dart.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Normally, I don’t steer away from a model result this convincing, but I know its level of competition indicator isn’t strong enough to overcome just how fake Lima’s stats are. He’s a worthy favorite, but this line is out of control in a flyweight fight that probably goes the distance.
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