UFC Vegas 120 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Vegas 120 DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade: to bet on the UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Vegas 120: Gamrot vs. Salkilld, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Vegas 120: Gamrot vs. Salkilld DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Billy Quarantillo	69.23
Alexia Thainara	59.56
Diego Ferreira	59.02
Darren Elkins	39.36
Juliana Miller	37.75
Yadier del Valle	33.91
Quillan Salkilld	33.57
Diyar Nurgozhay	32.92
Ravena Oliveira	27.88
Bruno Lopes	26.40
Mateusz Gamrot	25.80
Amanda Lemos	24.17

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Quillan Salkilld	4.79
Mateusz Gamrot	3.55
Alexia Thainara	3.46
Juliana Miller	3.05
Darren Elkins	2.95
Billy Quarantillo	1.83
Bruno Lopes	1.43
Yadier del Valle	1.15
Ravena Oliveira	0.90
Diego Ferreira	0.83
Diyar Nurgozhay	0.47
Amanda Lemos	0.43

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Quillan Salkilld	1.05
Amanda Lemos	0.53
Diyar Nurgozhay	0.36
Diego Ferreira	0.25
Billy Quarantillo	0.20
Mateusz Gamrot	0.09
Darren Elkins	0.08
Yadier del Valle	0.01
Ravena Oliveira	0.00
Juliana Miller	0.00
Alexia Thainara	0.00
Bruno Lopes	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Alexia Thainara	1.57
Yadier del Valle	1.57
Juliana Miller	1.16
Darren Elkins	1.02
Billy Quarantillo	0.88
Quillan Salkilld	0.75
Amanda Lemos	0.67
Diego Ferreira	0.54
Mateusz Gamrot	0.20
Bruno Lopes	0.02
Diyar Nurgozhay	0.01
Ravena Oliveira	0.00

 

UFC Vegas 120: Gamrot vs. Salkilld DFS Picks and Props to Target

 

Billy Quarantillo Over 48.5 Significant Strikes

There aren’t many DFS slates that Billy Quarantillo isn’t capable of breaking.

Averaging 13.78 significant strikes per minute, Quarantillo’s pace and cardio are second to few — so long as his submission defense and chin hold up. He’s topped 70 significant strikes in 9 of his 12 UFC fights. They haven’t always been in victory or going the full distance, either.

“Billy Q” got thrust into a competition level he couldn’t handle against Youssef Zalal and Cub Swanson, and Diego Ferreira is no easy out, either. However, the model’s 44.0% chance that this fight goes all 15 minutes gives plenty of life to an over here. He’s failed to meet this mark only when faced with five takedowns from Zalal and Spike Carlyle in addition to a first-round KO loss to Edson Barboza.

How real are the chances Ferreira finishes this fight? Well, his 0.62% knockdown rate isn’t very big. He only averages 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His only two wins (and finishes) since the COVID break were when Mateusz Rebecki’s gas tank ran dry and against Michael “The Menace” Johnson’s fleeting chin.

If Quarantillo avoids getting his back taken, I think he smashes this line.

Juliana Miller Over 1.5 Takedowns

The “instatap” got me last week with Rebecki, who scored one of the softest ground-and-pound (T)KOs ever against Kyle Prepolec. Surely, it won’t get me against in a women’s flyweight bout that is +110 to go over 2.5 rounds, right?

Ravena Oliveira has been good at precisely nothing in three UFC starts, but she did make the second round in all of them. I think that’s the lone obstacle to this prop for “Killer” Miller, who has an obvious wrestling advantage against the Brazilian’s 46% takedown defense. The former TUF winner averages 7.45 takedown attempts per 15 minutes.

Quietly, Miller has had to face stellar competition like Luana Santos and Carli Judice. I think many regard her in “worst on the roster” tiers, but she’s definitely a potent threat to score and finish the fight with a grappling edge this wide.

My model’s median takedown projection (3.05) balances a full-distance fight with the very real threat of the “instatap”, but this line should still be 2.5.

UFC Vegas 120’s Official Two-Legger

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I am not an employee of Underdog, PrizePicks, or any other DFS platform. This is just my personal code as a longtime UFC DFS player.

Like with sports betting, daily fantasy involves risk. No model or projections guarantee success or long-term profitability. In fact, the projections are still in beta and highly volatile in a cage fight, where several variables can influence outcomes in a matter of seconds.

Any decisions you make while viewing and using my projections are your responsibility. If you or a loved one has a gaming issue, call 1-800-GAMBLER.