HOF | 2025 Champs

UFC 2025 Champion Predictions

As we kick off 2025, the world of MMA is abuzz with speculation about who will be holding UFC gold when the year draws to a close. The unpredictable nature of the sport makes this a challenging task, but that hasn’t stopped MMA pundits from peering into their crystal balls. 

At Home of Fight, a team of seasoned analysts put their reputations on the line with their champion predictions. Looking toward the new year, it is safe to say that the year 2024 will be a year of many fights and possibly many changes in the UFC championship titles, which will no doubt keep fight fans on the edge of their seats and excited for what is to come in the world of MMA.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA Alexandre Pantoja | Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Flyweight Championship

  • Matty Bets: Alexandre Pantoja

“No current UFC flyweight contender can come close to beating Pantoja.”

  • Hayjive: Alexandre Pantoja

“Unless Mohammed Mokaev finds his way back to the UFC with an immediate title shot, I don’t see anyone being able to dethrone Pantoja in 2025. Manel Kape might be the only one with the Takedown defense and striking to exploit, but he has to get the opportunity first and even if he doesn’t I don’t see him being a favorite over Pantoja.”

  • Nolan (TheParlay): Manel Kape

“Kape has fought Pantoja before in a close fight, possesses all the tools to be champ, and looked great in his last fight. Pantoja could also move up a weight class leaving the title vacant.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Alexandre Pantoja

 “THERE IS NO ONE ELSE!”

  • Austin: Manel Kape

“Kape’s anti-grappling (77% takedown D) has now withstood two awesome tests, and he arguably beat Pantoja in a three-rounder. Someone is going to punish Alexandre Pantoja’s head defense at some point, and “Starboy” might have the best hands in the division. I was a doubter, but now, the numbers match the hype. He’ll destroy Moreno in an early 2025 bout.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Manel Kape

“If Manel Kape gets past Brandon Royval he gets his long-awaited rematch with Alexandre Pantoja where he finally gets his hand raised to become the newest flyweight champion.”

Merab vs Umar

Umar & Merab | UFC

Bantamweight Champion

  • Matty Bets: Umar Nurmagomedov

“After he beats Merab, I don’t see anyone else in BW who can compete with Umar’s skill set.”

  • Hayjive: Umar Nurmagomedov

“Considering Umar is a -300 favorite for his title fight in January, I think it’s hard to argue anyone else. Could Merab beat him? Absolutely, but if he can pass the Merab test in January he likely will fight 1 more time in 2025 and wins again.”

  • Nolan (TheParlay): Umar Nurmagomedov

“It feels like destiny that Umar becomes and stays champ in 2025. Very skilled all around and has the ability to keep fights where he wants them.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Umar Nurmagomedov

“He’s by far the most well rounded athlete at 135, I see him getting past Merab, and then one more with O’Malley.”

  • Austin: Umar Nurmagomedov

“Until we see the Dagestan guys lose in convincing fashion, I wouldn’t bet against them. Umar’s insane striking accuracy (63%) and defense (63%) arguably makes him the most polished, well-rounded fighter we’ve ever seen from Khabib’s camp.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Umar Nurmagomedov

“I’ve been saying that Umar Nurmagomedov is the best bantamweight fighter in the UFC since his debut and that no one will ever dethrone him and I still stand by that statement today.”

Ilia Topuria | Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Featherweight Champion

  • Matty Bets: Ilia Topuria

“Until he decides to move up to LW, FW division is all his. With unfinished fights to make, LW won’t be coming until 2026.”

  • Hayjive: Ilia Topuria

“The only way I see Topuria losing the 145 title is if he himself vacates it and moves up to 155. Considering he has a possible Volk rematch and Diego Lopez waiting in the wings, I think Topuria has enough fights in 2025 to stay at 145 and defend his title.”

  • Nolan (TheParlay): Ilia Topuria

“I’m not sure who beats Ilia at the moment, and I believe he stays champ. His wrestling and striking are top tier, and he should remain champ unless he vacates to move up to 155.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Diego Lopes

“He won’t beat Topuria, neither will he fight him, but he will win the vacant belt towards the end of year.”

  • Austin: Alexander Volkanovski

“Does Volk beat Ilia? No. But, Ilia’s odd politics sound like they’ll vacate this title at some point, and Volk still hammered Max Hollway three times. Diego Lopes’ power could be an issue, but Volk’s elite striking (+2.72 SSR) and anti-grappling should be favored over Evloev, who likely dispenses the boom-or-bust Lopes in a rematch.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Ilia Topuria

“As long as Ilia Topuria stays at featherweight until the end of 2025 no one is overtaking him as he runs through the featherweight division.”

Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports

Lightweight Champion

  • Matty Bets: Renato Moicano

Moicano starting off the year with a big win over Dariush is going to carry momentum right into a championship win over Islam.”

  • Hayjive: Islam Makhachev

“If we’re being honest, even if Islam loses to Arman in January, he will get a rematch, and it will likely be in Abu Dhabi. Islam is the best fighter on the planet right now and I don’t see him not being the champ by the end of the year.”

  • Nolan (TheParlay): Islam Makhachev

“Islam is constantly getting better and better. His wrestling and grappling are dominate, but his striking is getting very sharp and I can’t see many beating him at 155.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Charles Oliveira

“The lightweight belt will be vacated by Makhachev in pursuit of the 170 belt, leaving it vacant for Oliveira against another lightweight”

  • Austin: Islam Makhachev

“If Islam stays at 155 pounds, this belt will undoubtedly be his if he can get by Tsaruykan again. Even though I see the January fight’s moneyline a bit wide, Arman’s issues with cardio in five-round fights and ability to get tagged in the standup should make Islam a favorite to win it, and the other contenders can’t really hold a candle to the pound-for-pound ace.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Islam Makhachev

“Islam has his toughest test against Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 311 and if he can get past him and stays at lightweight this year then he will end 2025 as the lightweight champion.”

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Welterweight Champion

  • Matty Bets: Belal Muhammad

“His pace, durability, and activity are too much for any opponent to match. As long as he makes it past Shavkat, smooth sailing for the rest of the year.”

  • Hayjive: Belal Muhammad

“There are a lot of dark horses in this weight class that I think could be in this position, but they will need the opportunity. Shavkat is next in line, but he and Belal will both have to get healthy before they fight and that might not be until early Summer. If that’s the case I think Belal wins and we may not see him fight again in 2025.”

  • Nolan (TheParlay): Joaquin Buckley

“I’m taking a shot in the dark on Buckley. He’s got momentum, and if he gets a title shot in 2025 it will be towards the end of the year, leaving himself a chance to be champ at the end of 2025.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Shavkat Rakhmonov

“Rhakmonov had the biggest test of his life and he past it. He will defeat Belal Muhammad and either rematch Garry or fight Prates.”

  • Austin: Michael Morales

“I’ll call my shot that this division gets a little weird. Morales‘ peripherals through veterans and contenders are nearly perfect, but Carlos Prates seems a bit more marketable even though I’ve still got my doubts about his power and grappling translating to better competition. Belal is underappreciated — but beatable.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Belal Muhammad

“People still seem to look past Belal but his rise to the top was no fluke and he will show that when he finally gets to take on Rakhomonov and dominates him. After that, it doesn’t seem like there’s a surging contender that can take the title away from him.”

Image credit: Getty Images

Middleweight Champion

  • Matty Bets: Anthony Hernandez

“Certainly my long shot, Fluffy’s pace and wrestling is a problem for entire division. And his cardio could even give Khamzat trouble.”

  • Hayjive: Dricus Du Plessis

“This is a tough one but I have to ride with my guy DDP. He beats Strickland again in February then likely faces Khamzat late in the summer. That will be a massive fight but I think DDP can defend again.”

  • Nolan (TheParlay): Dricus Du Plessis

“DDP is a tough out for everyone in the division. Powerful striking, strong, durable, and can fight deep into fights. I don’t see anyone taking his belt this year.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Khamzat Chimaev

“No one does to Whittaker what Chimaev did. He’s got elite wrestling. His fight with DDP will be competitive until it hits the ground.”

  • Austin: Dricus Du Plessis

“Khamzat Chimaev has a chance to drown Du Plessis early, but the 30-year-old South African is in his analytical prime and has made a living off enduring adversity to find a way to win. I actually see Strickland’s razor-thin point fighting as a tougher matchup for him.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Khamzat Chimaev

“It’s very surprising that Khamzat Chimaev isn’t the favorite here with how he demolished Robert Whittaker with relative ease. Don’t be surprised when Chimaev does the same to Dricus Du Plessis to finally get the UFC middleweight strap.”

Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports

Light Heavyweight Champion

  • Matty Bets: Alex Pereira

“The striking is just too much for anyone to hang with. No one’s grappling in LHW is a serious threat to dethrone the champ either.”

  • Hayjive: Alex Pereira

“This is another question mark because Pereira could end up in a different weight class, but I don’t think there’s anyone at 205 that has anything for him. Ankalaev is his toughest matchup but in my opinion he isn’t anything special enough to dethrone Pereira.”

  • Nola (TheParlay): Alex Pereira

“There’s not many wrestlers in the division, and let’s be real Alex is by far the best striker in the top 10. I don’t see many bad matchups for him this year.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Alex Pereira

“He’s beaten EVERYONE and now the only one left is Ankalaev, who has some of the lowest fight IQ at LHW.”

  • Austin: Carlos Ulberg 

“Poatan is 37, was brutally KO’d at middleweight, and just faced extreme adversity against a career gatekeeper in Khalil Rountree. This would be the belt I’d be most shocked didn’t change hands if not be retirement. My model would favor Carlos Ulberg — who has elite training partners for this matchup — in a 25-minute striking war with Poatan, so I’ll ride with it.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Alex Pereira

“If Magomed Ankalaev doesn’t get the job done it’s unlikely anyone else will and that’s what I am leaning toward as Alex Pereira gets past Ankalaev and coasts through the year as the light heavyweight champion.”

Image credit: Getty Images

Heavyweight Champion

  • Matty Bets: Tom Aspinall

“If Jon Jones takes the fight, Aspinall wins. If Jon Jones ducks the fight, Aspinall wins. Either way, Aspinall wins.”

  • Hayjive: Tom Aspinall

“My favorite one on this list. According to Dana White, Jon Jones vs Aspinall will 100% happen. If that’s the case, then I think Aspinall beats an older Jon Jones. From there, there’s nobody that can match what Aspinall brings to the octagon.”

  • Nolan (TheParlay): Tom Aspinall

“I could see Jon vacating his belt to keep the anticipation and build up for the fight with Tom. Either way, Tom is by far the best heavyweight outside jones and will have his opportunity to become the undisputed champ this year.”

  • JJ (TheOctagonKings): Tom Aspinall

“Even if doesn’t fight Jones, the belt gets vacated and he beats everyone soundly, with Jones being the only challenge.”

  • Austin: Tom Aspinall

“Tom Aspinall is UFC’s #1 pound-for-pound fighter. No heavyweight in the world can match his combo of speed, power, and grappling that was — honestly — his biggest selling point as a prospect. The elderly version of Jones we just saw has no chance, and the Englishman has already ripped through most other contenders.”

  • The Fight Analyst: Jon Jones

“I am on an island here as I do believe Jon Jones will go down as the greatest to ever do it and will remain unbeaten in his MMA career.”

Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage. Enjoy the fights, let us know how you’ll be watching!