Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 313

UFC 313

UFC 313 is set to deliver an electrifying night of fights this Saturday, March 8, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main event features a compelling light heavyweight title clash between champion Alex Pereira and the formidable Magomed Ankalaev. Pereira, coming off a stellar 2024 with three title defenses, faces perhaps his toughest challenge yet in Ankalaev. The Dagestani fighter’s well-rounded skill set, particularly his wrestling, could pose significant problems for the striking-oriented champion.

The co-main event sees Justin Gaethje taking on Rafael Fiziev in a lightweight bout that promises fireworks. Gaethje, looking to bounce back from a devastating loss to Max Holloway, faces the returning Fiziev, who’s eager to prove himself after a long injury layoff.

Other notable matchups include Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes in a lightweight contest and Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo in a crucial women’s strawweight bout.

The Home of Fight Experts are here to help put cash into your pockets for this stacked fight night event, so let’s see what they have cooking for this weekend!

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

• HayJive – Magomed Ankalaev

“If Ankalaev doesn’t shoot a takedown in this fight, it may go down as the dumbest IQ moments in championship history. Even if he’s not dominant with the grappling, it will at least make Pereira hesitate on the feet. Pereira’s leg kicks and counters do scare me, but I think Ankalaev has more ways to win here so I have to take him.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Alex Pereira

“I’m done doubting the man. If he defends the wrestling of Ank he should have more tools to do more damage in this fight. Alex on the feet, Ankalaev on the ground. I’ll guess the fight takes place standing for the most part.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Alex Pereira

“Ankalaev will need to wrestle, however he isn’t a true grappler, meaning he will entertain the striking at moments. On the feet, Alex is far too dangerous for Ankalaev, who we’ve seen dropped by Thiago Santos, and hit with debilitating calf-kicks in the past.”

• Austin Swaim – Alex Pereira

“Ankalaev’s stats show a mediocre wrestler, and that’s how he’ll have to defeat Poatan. I think it’s far more likely Pereira chops at his calf early to take power from those takedown attempts and either wins a decision or scores the late (T)KO. This is a huge test for those Teixeira MMA grappling reps.”

• Corrie – Alex Pereira

“Everyone sees Ankalaev as the better grappler but I think Pereira can hold his own if it goes to the ground, especially with all the work he’s put in with Glover Teixeira and considering Ankalaev’s low takedown accuracy and fight history, he’s not necessarily a submission threat to begin with… I think that if he’s forced to stand and trade, I don’t see him lasting long.”

• The Fight Analyst – Magomed Ankalaev

“It’s normally not smart to go against Alex Pereira as he is 9-1 in his UFC career along with 5-0 in the light heavyweight division. However, if you’re ever going to fade him at 205 lbs this would be the only fight to do so. It boils down to whether or not Ankalaev comes in with the notion he’s going to at least attempt the takedowns early and make Pereira work more than he ever has at light heavyweight, which will pay dividends the later the fight goes. If Ankalaev can do just that, we could potentially see Pereira slow down mightily even potentially getting finished in the championship rounds as a new champ reigns supreme.”

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

• HayJive – Rafael Fiziev

“Gaethje is at a point in his career where the future could be ugly. I think Fiziev arguably won the first fight and with it being just 3 rounds again, I think he wins this rematch.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Rafael Fiziev

“Justin is now 36 coming off a career altering loss. Fiziev has been itching for a fight for two years now, and looks to have been training hard for 8 months. The first fight was closer than people think, and you mix in Justin’s bad KO loss, I think Fiziev gets it done this time.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Rafael Fiziev

“Both men are coming off layoffs but at this time in their careers, Gaethje’s ability to recover from a KO loss is not as good as Fiziev’s from an ACL injury. Fiziev still found massive success in their first fight, and considering how Gaethje’s style requires some amount of defensive openings, I could see Fiziev finding the finish.”

• Austin Swaim – Justin Gaethje

“Perception of miles aside, Gaethje would have been -200 here before the Holloway fight, and Fiziev’s odd career — and negative striking success rate — make it hard for me to buy in at chalk. This is probably a similar fight to the first, but I could see either guy getting the nod.”

• Corrie – Rafael Fiziev

“I’ve been going back and forth on this one, and honestly, I want to take Gaethje, but after all the damage he’s taken, especially after Holloway, I just don’t know how much he has left. Even though Fiziev is stepping in at the last minute, he’s been training during his time away, and if he feels ready enough to jump in against Gaethje on this short notice, he might actually be crazy enough to pull it off.”

• The Fight Analyst – Rafael Fiziev

“It’s crazy to think Fiziev is a moderate favorite on such short notice against someone of the caliber of Gaethje. This is someone Fiziev has already lost to and who has a full camp coming into this fight. With that said, the damage Gaethje has taken over the course of his career is finally starting to take its toll. Given the success Fiziev had in the first fight and how technical/dynamic his striking is, I thoroughly expect him to get after Gaethje potentially finishing him midway through this fight.”

Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

• HayJive – Ignacio Bahamondes

“This one has fireworks written all over it but I have to favor Ignacio in this one due to his durability, cardio, and potential grappling upside. Give me Ignacio by late finish or decision.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Ignacio Bahamondes

“This will be competitive early and Ignacio will need to be careful early, but Jalin has shown to crumble with adversity and later in fights. Later in fights is where Ignacio shines, and his striking is long and dynamic.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Ignacio Bahamondes

“Turner’s power is his best attribute, but against a skilled opponent of his height and stature, I believe that Bahamondes can shine bright over three rounds, especially when we consider their career moments.”

• Austin Swaim – Jalin Turner

“This is a buy-low spot on Turner after recent ranked setbacks, but he still has elite power that dropped Moicano, and he’s probably the more skilled grappling threat here. Two inches of reach could prove to be huge when both of these guys are used to fighting long.”

• Corrie – Ignacio Bahamondes

“I like Ignacio here… He’s quick, has better striking defense, and lands more volume than Turner, who hasn’t won in two years and is coming off a knockout loss. While Turner is good, Ignacio is fighting smart, on a knockout streak, and just had a baby (noting new dad strength theory). I also think that giving him a top-15 guy after getting some UFC experience under his belt could be an attempt to start pushing him through.”

• The Fight Analyst – Ignacio Bahamondes

“I’ve flip-flopped numerous times on this fight but ultimately landed on Bahamondes to keep his impressive finish streak going this weekend. If Turner had a more proactive ground game and was more successful in his grappling, I would lean his way, but not getting a finish on the mat since 202,2 and the way Turner has regressed lately, has me thinking this is Bahamondes’ coming out party. The strikers that give Bahamondes fits on the feet are technical kickboxers like Klein and Makdessi. With Turner being primarily a boxer on the feet, Bahamondes should have his way on the feet en route to a mid-round finish as long as his takedown defense keeps it standing.”

Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo

• HayJive – Amanda Lemos

“I like the future with Lucindo, but she hasn’t exactly impressed me as her competition has improved. She’ll need to wrestle in this fight, and she typically does so through body lock takedowns. Lemos is strong in those positions and if she can keep it on the feet I think she wins here.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Iasmin Lucindo

“The logical play seems to be Lemos at underdog odds but Lucindo is 14 years younger, experienced for age, and seems to be improving. If she can mix in some grappling she should have a great chance to win the fight.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Iasmin Lucindo

“While the power is on Lemos side, Lucindo is the younger fighter with the grappling upside.”

• Austin Swaim – Amanda Lemos

“Lucindo cut things close with Marina Rodriguez, and Lemos’ power and submission danger are both significantly more present if she’s not washed at 37. If Lemos keeps her feet for good portions of the fight, she’ll be in a great position to pull the upset.”

• Corrie – Iasmin Lucindo

“She’s 15 years younger but has more overall fighting experience under her belt, is a bit more active than Lemos, and on a 4 fight winning streak… Plus she wins in every category from sig strikes per minute, striking and TD defenses, takedown averages, all of it all.”

• The Fight Analyst – Iasmin Lucindo

“The betting line screams ‘TAKE AMANDA LEMOS!’ but given that we most likely have seen the best days out of Lemos and her being 37 years old this could be the fight where she passes the torch to Lucindo. Lucindo will be the faster of the two and will look to have the clear grappling edge as well. As long as Lucindo doesn’t get caught she should put on a solid performance and get the biggest win of her career.”

King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy

• HayJive – Mauricio Ruffy

“This one is pretty straight forward to me. Green is a an aging veteran who relies on head movement, while Ruffy is a devastating counter striker. I see a Ruffy KO within the first 2 rounds.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Mauricio Ruffy

“Bobby Green seems to be a bit slower with the head movement as he enters the last leg of his career, and Ruffy is creative, explosive, and powerful. I can’t see this one ending well for Bobby.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mauricio Ruffy

“Mauricio Ruffy’s speed and power will be too much for King Green to handle, now at 38. Ruffy only truly needs one shot to end the night, and the way Green’s defense has been decreasing over the years, it could be a problem.”

• Austin Swaim – Mauricio Ruffy

“Everyone’s a bit down on Ruffy because Llontop’s chin and cardio provided a test, but King Green lacks the former. His striking efficiency is still awesome. I think the Fighting Nerds’ sensation gets back on track with an early stoppage in Vegas.”

• Corrie – Mauricio Ruffy

“He’s just stepping into his prime, and I feel like King Green may be out of his… Ruffy has insane striking, and with 10 knockouts out of 11 wins, I think he’ll finish Green tbh… Plus I’m not looking to bet against the fighting nerds just yet, especially with Ruffy and them on such a hot streak.”

• The Fight Analyst – Mauricio Ruffy

“It’s hard to fade the Fighting Nerds right now especially with Mauricio Ruffy in this matchup against the aging veteran King Green. While Green is always a live dog, Ruffy will be too fast and too technical for Green as he comes out there potentially getting a late finish or the nod on the scorecards as he outpoints Green to victory.”

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