Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 314

Expert Picks: UFC 314

UFC 314 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting events of the year, featuring a lineup packed with high-stakes bouts and thrilling matchups. 

The main event sees former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski take on surging contender Diego Lopes for the vacant featherweight title. Volkanovski, one of the division’s all-time greats, is looking to reclaim his throne after back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, Lopes enters the fight on a five-fight win streak, including victories over Brian Ortega and Dan Ige, making this a compelling clash of experience versus momentum.  

In the co-main event, lightweight fan favorite Paddy Pimblett faces former Bellator champion Michael Chandler in a pivotal five-round bout. Pimblett is riding an eight-fight win streak and has his sights set on title contention, while Chandler looks to bounce back and potentially rise to a potential title shot.

The card also features Bellator legend Patrício Pitbull making his UFC debut against Yair Rodríguez in a featherweight bout that promises fireworks. With additional matchups like Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva and Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes, UFC 314 is a must-watch event for MMA fans worldwide.

With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sports book this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

• HayJive – Diego Lopes

“If Volk was in his prime I’d be all over him, but that’s just not the case. I could see him taking over if the fight progressed to the championship rounds, but I like Diego’s overall skill set, momentum, and dangerous abilities on the feet and the mat to prevail here.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Diego Lopes

“The youth, aggressiveness, and forward pressure will give Volk problems early. I’m seeing an earlier finish from Diego in this spot.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Diego Lopes

“If this matchup were to happen three years ago, I would bet on Volkanovski without thinking twice, however we’ve seen age and durability be punishing in this sport. The athleticism from Lopes will be far too much for Volk to handle in the first two rounds.”

• Corrie – Diego Lopes

“This fight is going to go all over the place… They’re going to stand and trade, and they’re going to go to the mat and honestly I see it going one of two ways: either Volkanovski wins a decision, or Lopes gets an early (T)KO. Lopes’ speed is going to be a factor, especially if he comes out like he did against Brian Ortega. It pains me to pick one to win here but I’m gonna back Lopes.”

• The Fight Analyst – Alexander Volkanovski

“While Lopes is certainly a dangerous fighter everywhere, I believe people are blowing Volkanovski’s durability out of proportion. His KO losses were against the hardest hitter to ever fight at 145 lbs, Ilia Topuria, and Islam Makhachev who he came off the couch to fight. Lopes is still inexperienced against the elite in the division, slowed down mightily in the face of adversity against Dan Ige in round 3 (even getting rocked badly), and has yet to see round 4. As long as Volkanovski can avoid an early bonk or sub, he should take over in the championship rounds for either a late finish or get the nod on the scorecards to regain his featherweight title.

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

• HayJive – Paddy Pimblett

“5 rounds could bring a lot of volatility with the unknowns of Paddy’s gas tank past round 3. However Chandler is on the cusp of 39 years old with his only win being Tony Ferguson over the last 4 years. I’ll take Paddy here to get the W, with the momentum and potential on his side.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Paddy Pimblett

“Paddy is underrated in my opinion and I think he will have plenty of chances to catch Chandler making mistakes. Once paddy takes the back he will have chances for control but also submission attempts I think he can lock in.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Paddy Pimblett

“The ease Oliveira had to get those takedowns, leads me to believe Pimblett will waste no time getting the takedown. Fight IQ then becomes a question and we know that is where Chandler lacks the most and on the matt is where Pimblett shines brightest.”

• Corrie – Paddy Pimblett

“I’ve developed a habit of betting on fighters pushing 40 in 2025, and it’s definitely taken years off my life and I don’t think Chandler’s going to be the exception. He’s had a rough stretch lately, and if he loses, this could honestly be it for him. That said, this is a big step up in competition for Paddy, but I think the experience of going five rounds with Chandler will only motivate him more, in addition to having better cardio and being more durable. I’m picking Paddy to win.”

• The Fight Analyst – Paddy Pimblett

“Michael Chandler is by far the toughest matchup of Paddy Pimblett’s career thus far but it is one that he should be able to walk away the winner. Pimblett’s striking has been improving fight to fight, and while he may not have grappling credentials like the opponents Chandler has faced, he still can take this fight to the mat and get the submission. As long as Pimblett can avoid the one-shot KO of Chandler, he should utilize his grappling to wrap up the submission midway through this fight and push him toward a future title shot.”

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

• HayJive – Jean Silva

“I think Mitchell will have a tough time with the physicality of Silva here along with his elite counter striking. Bryce may be able to get him down early, but I expect Silva to get back up and find a KO.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Bryce Mitchell

“Originally I thought Silva, but Bryce’s losses come to the top of the division and he has the exact skills needed to beat Silva. Bryce seems very locked in for this fight as well.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jean Silva

“Silva’s grappling is something we haven’t seen much, though the few moments we’ve seen, it’s been primarily focused on creating distance and angles. On the feet, Bryce will need to have the correct entries, or else Silva can make it punishing.”

• Corrie – Jean Silva

“This is the people’s main event and I couldn’t be more excited for it. It’s gonna be all-out violence, so an ITD bet is probably the safest play, but I’m backing Jean Silva by R1/R2 (T)KO. We all know Bryce Mitchell will try to take it to the mat, but every round starts on the feet and Jean Silva will have the advantage there everytime.”

• The Fight Analyst – Jean Silva

“This is going to be a real test for Jean Silva. While Bryce Mitchell absolutely can’t strike at all with Silva, he does have the grappling to make this fight interesting. However, if Silva can shrug off the first takedown attempt or scramble back to his feet, Mitchell is in a world of trouble. Expect a close first round, but as we get toward the midway point of the fight, Silva will eventually land something clean, putting Mitchell out.”

Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull

• HayJive – Yair Rodriguez

“Once upon a time I would take Pitbull here, but at 37 years of age I just can’t. I can’t fully trust his durability, and gameplan. I think Yair will win a lot of minutes at range with his kicks and I expect some improvements in his ground game after being in camp with Belal.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Yair Rodriguez

“Yair’s movement could be an issue for Pitbull, as Pitbull is now older and a bit slower. I’ve noticed a drop off in volume from Pitbull where as Yair will be throwing consistently.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Yair Rodriguez

“Pitbull is getting into this sport aged 37. Skillwise and experience he has it, but Yair has been in there with the best in the division. I can see Yair using his speed and versatility to eventually find a killshot on Pitbull, R2 or R3.”

• Corrie – Yair Rodriguez

“I’ve gotta go with Yair on this one. He’s younger, taller, has the reach advantage, and he’s just so unpredictable on the feet. I mean, he stood there and consistently traded with Max Holloway for 5 full rounds and yes, his wrestling has been pretty rough, but he’s been grinding trying to level up his ground game and since he’s coming off two tough losses, I really think he’s dialed in and hungry. Pitbull’s a legend, no doubt, but I think Yair’s speed, creativity, and momentum are gonna be too much for him.”

• The Fight Analyst –  Patricio Pitbull

“A lot of people are ready to write off Patricio Pitbull because of his age but he still has a lot of fight left in him. While Yair Rodriguez is certainly a dangerous striker, we know the biggest glaring weakness of Rodriguez’s game is his grappling, and that’s where Pitbull can excel in this matchup. With 12 submissions on his resume, Pitbull can utilize his grappling to stifle the striking of Rodriguez and potentially get the submission victory or do enough to get the nod on the scorecard for his first win inside the octagon.”

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes

• HayJive – Nikita Krylov

“Any fight with these two in it will be volatile, so this is tough to call a winner. However, I like Krylovs skillset and current shape a little better. He’s dangerous on the feet and has grappling upside here to get the W.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Nikita Krylov

“I understand the bets on Reyes but the more I think about it I have to side with the more well rounded fighter who could be in title contention if he was just active.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Nikita Krylov

“As much as we’d like to see Reyes go on a title run, Krylov is one of the most underrated light-heavyweights and defensively, Reyes leaves a few openings, and Krylov can be dynamic with his attacks at the same time.”

• Corrie – Dominick Reyes

“It’s dog or pass for me, and I’m totally backing Dominick Reyes here. Krylov hasn’t fought in a hot minute, and since Reyes’ rough patch, he’s been coming back strong. I honestly think Reyes is gonna dominate on the feet and probably outland Krylov throughout the fight.”

• The Fight Analyst – Dominick Reyes

“Dominick Reyes has strung together back-to-back wins where he finished both Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby before the third round. Nikita Krylov will be fighting for the first time since his triangle choke submission victory of Ryan Spann back in March 2023. With Krylov’s time off and Reyes’ current run leads to me believe that Reyes is in better form right now and as long as he can avoid getting put on his back he could come away with his 10th knockout on his resume.”

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