Expert Picks: UFC 318
This Saturday, the UFC returns to New Orleans for a blockbuster event at the Smoothie King Center, headlined by the highly anticipated trilogy fight between Max Holloway and local legend Dustin Poirier. The stakes could not be higher as Holloway looks to defend his ceremonial BMF title and finally get a win over Poirier, who has bested him in their two previous encounters. For “The Diamond,” this night carries special weight; it’s not only his homecoming, but also his retirement bout, promising a highly charged atmosphere as Louisiana fans rally behind their hero.
Both men have evolved tremendously since their first meeting in 2012 and the memorable interim lightweight title clash in 2019. Holloway, fresh off a knockout victory that earned 2024 Knockout of the Year honors, aims to solidify his legacy with another signature win. Meanwhile, Poirier hopes to ride off into the sunset as one of the most beloved action fighters of his era, perhaps handing Holloway a trilogy sweep in the process.
The main card also features intriguing matchups including Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov, Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez, and Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull, ensuring action across multiple divisions. UFC 318 promises emotion, legacy, and fireworks befitting a summer fight night in the Big Easy.
Poirier vs Holloway | HOF
Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway
- HayJive – Max Holloway
“This is a toss up for me, but I will side with Max because I think he is at a better point in his career. “
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Max Holloway
“At the end of the day, Holloway probably has more in the tank to give. If he can eats a few shots, he will have the volume and cardio to push the pace as the fight goes on.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Max Holloway
“While the method is unsure, I do see a scenario where Holloway can find a volume based TKO, simply due to the stage of his career where compared to Dustin, that despite losing, is always going to show that his heart has no quit. Moreover, I feel the deposition, tranquility and stamina of Holloway at lightweight is far more effective. I do think this will be a slightly different fight than their second bout.”
- Corrie – Dustin Poirier
“I know Max’s style has evolved beautifully and does likely walk away with the W here but I just know Dustin’s going to leave everything in the cage. He’s too proud and too much of a dog to let Max out-tough him at home in his retirement fight so I’m currently manifesting Dustin by grit, power, and urgency to set his legacy in stone.”
- The Fight Analyst – Dustin Poirier
“I fully expect this fight to be a back-and-forth battle between these two legends, which will be a great send-off for Dustin, win or lose. This should be a relatively close fight to the very en,d and much like their last encounter, Dustin’s heavier punches, as well as being in his home state of Louisiana, could sway the judges for his last fight inside the octagon.”
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
- HayJive – Roman Kopylov
“Costa has real paths to victory here as he’s taking a step down in competition. However, I can’t trust him to perform until I see it. I’ll take Kopylov to win.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Paulo Costa
“I’ll bite on the underdog here. He’s durable, better cardio, and if he can be push a pace, I see him making this very competitive.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Paulo Costa
“This one is tricky. While I do believe Costa is disappointing at times, we have never seen a serious whole or discrepancy in his game. Meanwhile, with Kopylov, his grappling defects are apparent and we haven’t seen him pass the test. If Costa uses his IQ carefully, we can see a scenario where he goes backs to his grappling roots.”
- Corrie – Roman Kopylov
“Costa has not been the same since the Izzy fight, and Kopylov just feels way more locked in right now: he’s sharp, focused, and has that clean kickboxing that doesn’t fade late and I don’t trust Costa to actually push the pace or stick to a smart game plan, especially considering that since 2019 he has 1 win, 4 losses, and 4 pullouts… Roman’s on the up of his career and I fear Costa’s on the out of his career…”
- The Fight Analyst – Paulo Costa
“This depends on which Costa shows up on Saturday. A motivated Costa should be able to push a pace, land some heavy shots, and mix in the takedowns to make this a tough fight for Kopylov. I still believe Costa, who’s only fought the elite of the middleweight division, still has enough left in the tank to get back into the win column this weekend.”
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
- HayJive – Kevin Holland
“Holland should have D rod covered everywhere in this fight and I think he finds another finish.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Kevin Holland
“Kevin is more powerful, explosive, faster, and has the grappling upside. I think he wins this anywhere it goes.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kevin Holland
“I think it’s time we start accepting Holland as a submission artist as well. I do think he can find long-range strikes, though will be chasing Rodriguez to the mat, where he will be able to sink a D’Arce, a submission he’s landed a few times in the UFC, and the sole submission D-Rod has suffered.”
- Corrie – Kevin Holland
“Admittedly, I’m a Holland believer now. I said it before a million times, Holland at 170 is not to be messed with – He’s huge, has a massive reach, and his jiu-jitsu is way slicker than people give him credit for. Rodriguez is tough, but every time he’s been matched up with a long, rangy finisher he gets picked apart or subbed, and Holland’s basically the prototype of those guys.”
- The Fight Analyst – Kevin Holland
“I really like D-Rod, but this just isn’t a fight he wins, where Holland is better in every aspect, but also let’s not forget Holland is 6 years younger. Holland’s length will pose troubles on the feet for Rodriguez, and if he wants to make this a grappling match, he can surely submit him. Ultimately, the welterweight surge continues for Holland as he gets past Rodriguez via submission.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull
- HayJive – Dan Ige
“Once upon a time I would take Pitbull, but it’s clear he’s past his prime and Ige can make you pay with 1 punch.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Dan Ige
“Less miles on his record, and fighting in the UFC for much longer. I think at this point in Pitbull’s career, he’s going to struggle with good strikers who will rack up damage.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Patricio Pitbull
“This is a perfect buy low spot for Pitbull. While I do see it hard for Pitbull to find the killer shot on a durable guy like Ige, I believe he can out-skill him over the 3 Round Distance.”
- Corrie – Dan Ige
“Ige’s just one of those dudes who drags you into a war and finds moments to land bombs I mean he’s the gatekeeper for a reason. Pitbull’s still got power but he’s 38 and fading, and if anyone’s cracking or stealing rounds, it’s Ige. Also, I would like to cite my previous points about the Bellator success rate in the UFC dropping every, single, matchup, in the last year.”
- The Fight Analyst – Patricio Pitbull
“I took Pitbull against Yair Rodriguez in one of the worst underdog bets in quite some time, but that doesn’t mean I flip the script here. Yair is a tough fight for anyone at 145 lbs, but while Dan Ige is also a tough fight for most, it’s also a much more favorable matchup for Pitbull. Pitbull will not have to deal with the size discrepancy in this fight, and as long as he just doesn’t wait like he did in his debut, which I am sure he will not in this fight, he should be able to get in there, mix it up, and outwork Ige to a decision and get his first UFC victory.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber
- HayJive – Daniel Zellhuber
“Zellhuber is a slow starter and I could see Johnson coming out looking good. However once Zellhuber finds his range I think it’s over for MJ.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Daniel Zellhuber
“Daniel will fight a solid gameplan at range, land kicks, and should have an advantage while it’s standing. I have to go with the far younger fighter with less overall damage in his career.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Daniel Zellhuber
“Won’t overthink this one. Johnson can get overly excited and Zellhuber has the reach advantage, the youth and the power to get it done. Johnson can have moments of success, though I believe the overexposure will cost him.”
- Corrie – Daniel Zellhuber
“I love MJ’s style and he still looks good at times, but he just can’t hold up anymore and the momentum always swings against him. I think since Zellhuber’s younger, taller, and tends to throw way more volume, this honestly feels like a setup fight to push him up the rankings, and feels sacrificial for MJ. Very UFC Nashville-esque fight.”
- The Fight Analyst – Daniel Zellhuber
“Not quite sure why the UFC is opening up the main card with such an extremely lopsided matchup. Johnson hasn’t graced a PPV fight card, let alone a main card, since his 2016 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Johnson may be 3-1 in his last four, but he doesn’t have a win over a current UFC fighter since his win against Andre Fili in 2018. This is a set-up fight for Zellhuber to raise his stock, and that’s exactly what he will do as he puts Johnson away inside 2 rounds.”
Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC
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