Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 323
Merab Dvalishvili faces off against a hungry Petr Yan in a bantamweight title rematch that carries massive historical implications. If Dvalishvili prevails, he becomes the first UFC champion ever to rack up four title defenses in a single calendar year—a feat that underscores his relentless dominance. Yan insists he was compromised in their 2023 meeting and enters this rematch with legitimate scoring urgency and a sharp boxing arsenal.
The striking matchup here is critical. Yan possesses some of the sharpest hands at 135 pounds, but Dvalishvili’s suffocating pace and wrestling defense have proven nearly impossible to solve. The Machine’s ability to neutralize Yan’s precision while maintaining forward pressure will likely determine the outcome.
In the co-main event, flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja defends against rising contender Joshua Van. Pantoja brings an eight-fight win streak and four successful title defenses into his December showcase, continuing his reign as the division’s most consistent force.
The supporting cast doesn’t disappoint either. Brandon Moreno faces Tatsuro Taira in a potential title eliminator, while former light heavyweight champ Jan Błachowicz attempts to end a winless drought against Bogdan Guskov.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC 323.
Merab Dvalishvili (C) vs. Petr Yan
- HayJive – Merab Dvalishvili
“Yan can certainly compete and make this closer than he did in the first fight. However Merab’s style offers very few opportunities for his opponent to be offensive and that should be the difference.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Merab Dvalishvili
“Merab has been too dominant, durable, and his cardio makes it very hard to compete with Merab at this point in his career.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Merab Dvalishvili
“I do believe that Dvalishvili has far improved since the first Yan fight, though at the same time, we will get a more composed version of Yan. Regardless, due to Yan’s style, I expect a closer fight, though with a similar outcome.”
- Corrie – Merab Dvalishvili
“Yan’s on a nice little win streak but we all know he gives away round one in every fight, and we also all know, Merab doesn’t even need a free start when he’s chaining takedowns and never slowing down. He’s unstoppable right now and takes zero damage doing it and his pace, pressure, and insane durability I can see just overwhelming Yan.
- The Fight Analyst – Merab Dvalishvili
“Merab is the greatest bantamweight of all time and it’s hard to go against. However, this fight will be a lot different and a lot tougher than the first one, especially with how Merab will have to cut a fourth time this year. With that said, Merab’s cardio and pace will be too much for Yan to deal with as he makes it a record fourth title defense in 2025 to remain the bantamweight champ.”
- Austin Swaim – Merab Dvalishvili
“A majority of the time, Merab is able to stifle Yan’s offense with his non-stop activity and win easily on the cards. However, the betting value is squarely behind Yan at such lofty odds.”
Alexandre Pantoja (C) vs. Joshua Van
- HayJive – Alexandre Pantoja
“I think Pantoja is just too much for Van here, I can see him getting an early finish but if he doesn’t the later rounds could be worry some.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Alexandre Pantoja
“I have to keep taking Pantoja until he gives me a reason not to. His grappling may be too much too soon for Van.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Alexandre Pantoja
“Currently in his prime, Pantoja will exploit Van’s lack of a 5 Round cardio experience , with persistent takedowns, entries and volume that will overwhelm Van’s volume.”
- Corrie – Alexandre Pantoja
“Van’s on a well deserved rocketship to the top, but he’s small like KKF and could he win by head hunting constantly? Maybe! But Pantoja is someone who’s going to drag him into hell over and over… He’ll just keep shooting, chaining takedowns, and once he gets the back, it’s the same story we’ve seen for years. I think Van has moments on the feet of course, but pantoja’s pressure and grappling depth is still levels above this division.”
- The Fight Analyst – Joshua Van
“Pantoja is closing on GOAT status in the flyweight division as he searches for his fifth title defense. However, he’s taking on arguably his toughest competitor to date. Van is young, hungry, and has cardio for days. It’s going to be tough for Pantoja to just press forward when he will be eating counters the entire time. It’s going to come down to whether or not Van can defend the takedowns and keep the fight on his feet. From what we’ve seen he’s been able to do just that and if he does it’s…. AND NEW!”
- Austin Swaim – Joshua Van
“Pantoja’s competition since Royval hasn’t aged particularly well, and Van’s anti-grappling has been the best inside the rankings for over a year. This seems, to me, like a harder version of the Erceg fight for the champ. He hasn’t made the same fundamental mistakes that Kara-France made throughout Pantoja’s last fight.”
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
- HayJive – Brandon Moreno
“This should be a very close fight but I will side with Moreno who is a very good scrambler and the better striker.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Tatsuro Taira
“Taira is younger, constantly improving, and if he gets his grappling going I think he will have chances to control a large portion of this fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tatsuro Taira
“At age 25, we underestimate how fighters can improve, and I believe that Taira will showcase decent enough striking improvement, leading to takedowns where the control time will allow him to find a submission on Moreno.”
- Corrie – Brandon Moreno
“Moreno’s been in there with absolute killers and has yet to be finished and I feel like Tatsuro would have to find the finish to win and that’s just reallyyy difficult for me to see. Moreno’s cleaner on the feet, better at managing pace, and unless Taira can dominate on the mat (which even pantoja couldn’t do cleanly), I think Moreno edges this with volume and control. I like tatsuro long-term, but this is a big step up so Moreno at slight plus money is worth it to me.”
- The Fight Analyst – Tatsuro Taira
“Moreno is a future hall of famer, but this seems to be a tough stylistic matchup. Taira’s karate style striking makes it difficult for Moreno to land at range, and his grappling is some of the best in the division. I expect Taira to mix it up on the feet and land takedowns to control Moreno for a good portion of the fight to take the decision and be the next contender for the flyweight title.”
- Austin Swaim – Tatsuro Taira
“I’m not sure the Japanese phenom is the first to finish Moreno in UFC, but his smothering grappling and underrated boxing are projected to improve at 25, and Moreno’s last two fights were fairly unimpressive wins over guys sliding in the rankings. I still don’t trust the former champ’s move to Fortis MMA.”
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
- HayJive – Payton Talbott
“A 38 year old retiring Cejudo won’t get my pick this week, Talbott is much bigger, improving his grappling, and puts a heavy pace on his opponents.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Payton Talbott
“Talbott is younger, more explosive, better striking, and improving. Henry has been vocal about retiring and I believe he’s one foot out the door.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Payton Talbott
“Cejudo in theory, has the wrestling and grappling edge, however we have not seen him explore his grappling as much recently, especially against physically more dominant opponents.”
- Corrie – Payton Talbott
“Henry’s too small, too old, and too far removed from his peak wrestling to keep up with a kid like Payton who’s bigger, faster, and clearly leveling up fight to fight. This being Henry’s retirement fight? Also makes me nervous. But think about it… What is Henry gonna do? Try to strike? He gets lit up. Tries to wrestle? Burns his gas tank trying to drag around a younger athlete. Give me Payton.”
- The Fight Analyst – Payton Talbott
“This will be the curtain call for Cejudo’s career and he gets one of the top prospects in the division as his last fight. Talbott’s height and reach are going to make it extremely difficult for the former flyweight and bantamweight champion to get within range and land takedowns. Talbott goes in there and puts a clinic on Cejudo to come away with the biggest win of his UFC career.”
- Austin Swaim – Payton Talbott
“When a fighter says they’re hanging up the gloves, believe them. Cejudo’s 59% striking D kept him safe against Song Yadong, but he wasn’t super competitive. Payton Talbott’s length and speed are capable of outpointing “Triple C” over the course of three rounds.”
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
- HayJive – Jan Blachowicz
“I have to take Jan here, he should have all of the grappling upside in this fight and has been very competitive if not winning against the divisions best strikers like Pereira, Ulberg, and Ankalaev.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Bogdan Guskov
“Guskov’s power could be too much for Jan who’s 42 years old. Jan may be better all around, but Guskov is caring a lot of advantages with youth, speed, strength, and power.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Bogan Guskov
“While we haven’t seen Jan finished much inside the UFC, Guskov will have a considerable speed advantage here. Guskov has never won by DEC and while at the same time is willing to put himself in the range of fire.”
- Corrie – Jan Blachwicz
“1. This is a levels fight to me. 2. Jan is one of those rare people where age truly is just a number because what do you mean he just went the distance with Pereira and Uhlberg at 42? And absolutely cooked even though he lost? In this spot, Jan’s the the better striker, the better grappler, and if he’s not completely chalked, Bogdan shouldn’t be the guy to crack him. Polish power + veteran IQ gets this done”
- The Fight Analyst – Bogdan Guskov
“Age is a big factor in this fight with Blachowicz now 42 years old and showing signs of slowing down. While the Polish power is still there, Guskov just looks like a young killer on the rise right now. With four-straight finishes and his ability to push the pace, we could see Guskov give Blachowicz his third loss inside the distance.”
- Austin Swaim – Bogdan Guskov
“Jan Blachowicz’s chin has not cracked even into his 40s, but he’ll be on the wrong side of speed and timing against Uzebekistan’s surging contender. Guskov’s training with Valter Walker should pay dividends in the grappling, which I can’t trust the elder statesmen to successfully deploy for 15 minutes. Bogdan’s splattering of Billy Elekana looks pretty solid in hindsight, too.”
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