Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 325
UFC 325 hits Sydney’s Qudos Bank Arena this weekend with a high-stakes featherweight title rematch headlining a deep, locally flavored card. Alexander Volkanovski once again defends his belt against Diego Lopes, nine months removed from their first meeting at UFC 314 where the Australian claimed the vacant crown by unanimous decision.
Lopes has surged in popularity with his aggressive grappling and opportunistic submissions, but he’ll need cleaner entries and tighter defense over five rounds to solve Volkanovski’s measured pressure and elite takedown awareness. In front of a partisan crowd, the champion’s ability to mix level changes, leg kicks, and stance switches could prove pivotal in keeping Lopes off rhythm and on the back foot.
The co-main event sees Dan Hooker welcome Benoit Saint-Denis to enemy territory in a compelling lightweight clash of battle-tested veteran versus relentless climber. Add Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, hometown heavyweight brawler Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira, and Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey, and UFC 325 shapes up as a high-action showcase for Oceania’s next wave of contenders.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
- HayJive – Diego Lopes
“I’ll take Diego here in a fight that I think seems a bit sketchy to take the favorite. Volk is now 37, has no motivation to get his belt back like he did in the 1st fight. Meanwhile Diego has accrued more experience and momentum, he knows he can hurt Volk, now it’s just about finishing it.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Diego Lopes
“I think Diego knows the adjustments needed to beat Volk this time around. He’s younger and has the power edge as well.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Diego Lopes
“Volkanovski did well recovering from the knockdown, though I do believe that Lopes’ development will make a difference in composure on finding multiple bigger shots this time around.”
- Corrie – Diego Lopes
“Rematches rarely go the same way as the original fight, and I think Lopes is continuing to get better and he’s still improving every time out. Last fight he started picking it up as it went on, and I think the game plan this time is to let it all go earlier, apply constant pressure like he normally does, and not let moments pass the way they did last time and if he does that, he wins.”
- The Fight Analyst – Diego Lopes
“I had Volkanovski in the first fight and he showed that Lopes was a step behind him. However, this time around something leads me to believe that Lopes has fixed his mistakes, will be the one to consistently be the aggressor, and cut off the cage better. And as we saw, if Lopes can land flush he can sit down Volkanovski. Don’t be surprised if we hear AND NEW on Saturday night.”
- Austin Swaim – Alexander Volkanovski
“UFC is hoping that Diego Lopes — designed in a lab for entertainment — can find Volk’s chin and usher in a new, exciting featherweight era. Unfortunately, he was extremely far behind the dominant champ outside of one moment just 10 months ago. I believe in Volkanovski’s cerebral approach to make enough adjustments and re-establish that there is a gold standard in the division.”
Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
- HayJive – Benoit Saint-Denis
“This should be carnage, and I like BSD to get to his grappling and finish the fight. Hooker has never been great defending on the ground, and BSD is as good at finishing there as anyone.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Benoit Saint-Denis
“This seems like a bad matchup for hooker. BSD has the grappling and is a mauler.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Benoit Saint-Denis
“I think we see a similar fight to Arman Tsarukyan, where there will be some exchanges on the feet, though BSD will find a way to overpower Hooker on the mat.”
- Corrie – Benoit Saint-Denis
“Hooker’s tough as hell and hard to put away, but BSD’s nonstop pressure and killer instinct (literally) make me think he eventually drowns him. Between the pace, the pressure, the cardio, and his ability to force grappling exchanges feels like a nightmare matchup, especially against an aging Dan Hooker.”
- The Fight Analyst – Dan Hooker
“Hooker is a tough out for anyone at 155 pounds, and the only ones to make it look easy are the two elite grapplers of the division. While BSD is a great grappler in his own right, he is no Tsarukyan or Makhachev. These two also have been talking about having a bloody war, which bodes well for Hooker who is always down for a fist fight.”
- Austin Swaim – Dan Hooker
“Benoit Saint Denis took care of business in two extremely favorable matchups. This is an attempt at a third, but Dan Hooker’s 71% takedown D turned back Mateusz Gamrot two fights ago, and the Frenchman will be in trouble if he makes as many positional mistakes with both his chin and neck as he did against Dustin Poirier.”
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy
- HayJive – Mauricio Ruffy
“This should end up being a very competitive fight, but I will side with Ruffy to bounce back. I like his movement, and the way he sets up his power strikes.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Mauricio Ruffy
“Ruffy has the tools to fight his game at range against another striker. He’s younger, less injuries, and more power.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mauricio Ruffy
“I do believe Ruffy lost his last fight due to a mental slip, and the change to the Volkanovski camp has helped him fix that. His speed will be a main attribute here, especially with how open to long-range exchanges Fiziev is.”
- Corrie – Rafael Fiziev
“Lowkey potential Fight of the Night, but it feels really close so I’m mostly staying out of it. If it stretches into deeper rounds, I lean Rafael Fiziev due to his defense, durability, and higher volume giving him the edge, especially with Ruffy’s gas tank being a real question mark. Mauricio Ruffy is dangerous in chaos and I’m not mad at the BSD loss at all, but with the team change and limited experience going long, I trust Fiziev’s composure and consistency more if this goes the distance.”
- The Fight Analyst – Rafael Fiziev
“Fiziev was able to finally bounce back after a brutal knee injury and two tough losses to the current interim lightweight champ. He showed that he is still one of the elite strikers when he outstruck a tall and long striker in Bahamondes, and now he gets another rangy striker in Ruffy who’s coming off his first UFC defeat. While I do expect to see a better version than what we saw against BSD in this matchup, we are still just a few fights removed where he allowed James Llontop (who’s been released from the promotion) to land 90 sig strikes. The volume and pressure will get to Ruffy as Fiziev just does more to get the dub on Saturday night.”
- Austin Swaim – Rafael Fiziev
“It’s been rare that Fiziev enters a matchup with both a striking volume and grappling edge, but he does against Mauricio Ruffy. His significantly steeper level of experience should bode well against a guy who struggled late with James Llontop.”
Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira
- HayJive – Tallison Teixeira
“Tuivasa is a shell of what he once was, and I think Teixeira is good enough to capitalize on it. He’s a relatively unproven prospect, but I like his potential.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Tallison Teixeira
“The youth and size might be a huge factor. Tai isn’t active anymore and does not like to take damage.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tallison Teixeira
“Unfortunately, Tai is on a bad skid, momentum matters a lot, and this is against a guy that has lost only to Derrick Lewis and has a height, reach and athleticism advantage.”
- Corrie – Tallison Teixeira
“Aside from the long layoff and five straight losses, I think Tai’s mentally out of this now enjoying his life with his family boating around and going to sporting events, and I think that Tallison realizes that this is all he’s got right now, so whether you look at it from ‘who’s better at this stage’, ‘who wants it more’, or simply the car crash method, I think it’s Tallison 3/3 times. Between the size gap, his power, nasty clinch elbows and knees, and the fact that I’ve capped his UFC run correctly so far makes it hard for me to get away from Teixeira against Tai right now.”
- The Fight Analyst – Tallison Teixeira
“I’d be very surprised if this fight reaches the second round. Teixeira’s last two fights ended in just 35 seconds where he went 1-1 in those fights. Meanwhile, Tuivasa hasn’t gotten his hand raised since 2022 and has been knocked out in twice during his five-fight skid. This fight is as volatile as it gets, but Teixeira’s size and length will pose problems for Tuivasa as he gets knocked out one last time in front of his home crowd to then call it a career.”
- Austin Swaim – Tallison Teixeira
“I understand the genesis of this fight after Big Tex’s poor performance against Derrick Lewis — a similar bomber with poor cardio. However, the Brazilian’s diversity of strikes and length will absolutely be too much for Tuivasa’s limited skillset if this fight is extended past one big early bomb.”
Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey
- HayJive – Quillan Salkilld
“Mullarkey isn’t a bad fighter, but the durability is always the X factor when he fights. Even without the durability concerns, I would favor Salkilld here. He’s got a very well rounded game, and is coming in with a lot of momentum.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Quillan Salkilld
“Salkilld is the truth. Mullarkey doesn’t have a chin left and that will be terrible for him here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Quillan Salkilld
“Horrible matchup for Mullarkey, who already has a suspicious chin, against a Salkilld who is on significant momentum with one of the best knockouts of 2025.”
- Corrie – Quillan Salkilld
“I say it’s Salkilld early… Between how technical he is, his speed, footwork, controlled aggression, and ability to stay composed, I have to lean with the kid who feels like he’s on an elevator straight to the top right now… Not to mention, Mullarkey’s durability has really fallen off over the last couple of years, and with how willing he is to engage, I think that’s exactly what gets him caught here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Quillan Salkilld
“The hype is real for Salkilld who sent Haqparast to the shadow realm with one of the nastiest headkick knockouts you will ever see. Now, he takes a step in the right direction in taking on fellow Australian Mullarkey, who’s had a rough time with his durability in his UFC run. While I don’t expect Salkilld to run through him, but he has the skills to mix things up on the feet and crack Mullarkey’s chin as he becomes over aggressive as he kicks off UFC 325 main with a win in front of his home crowd.”
- Austin Swaim – Quillan Salkilld
“One of lightweight’s brightest prospects arguably has a less-credentialed opponent than his last. Jamie Mullarkey’s fleeting chin or bad habits in scrambling exchanges should expose themselves against Salkilld, who really should be fighting toward the rankings.”
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