Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 326
Las Vegas plays host to one of the most anticipated rematches in recent UFC history as Max Holloway puts his BMF title on the line against Charles Oliveira at lightweight. Holloway enters as the favorite, and rightfully so, “Blessed” has been nearly unstoppable since moving up from featherweight, combining elite striking volume with an iron chin. But Oliveira is never to be underestimated. “Do Bronx” is the greatest submission artist in UFC history, and one moment of sloppiness from Holloway on the feet could send this fight to the canvas, and to a very dark place.
The co-main event delivers equally high stakes as rising middleweight contender Caio Borralho (17-2) clashes with the dangerous Dutch submission specialist Reinier de Ridder (21-3). A Borralho win could rocket him toward a title shot; De Ridder needs a signature statement to re-establish himself at 185.
Elsewhere on the main card, undefeated prospect Raul Rosas Jr. (11-1) faces the always-tough Rob Font, the kind of litmus-test fight that separates real contenders from hype. Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira adds heavyweight-lite power to the card at middleweight, and the Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson lightweight bout promises vintage fan-friendly fireworks.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC 326.
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira 2
HayJive – Max Holloway
- “As a pure pick, I think Holloway wins more often than not. His footwork, durability, and activity give him more ways to win this. However, Oliveira brings a style Holloway has never seen before in his long UFC career.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Max Holloway
- “I think the IQ, volume and distance management will make it hard for Charles to get his game going for 25 minutes. Max is good at countering pressure fighters as well.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Charles Oliveira
- “I think Oliveira has a significant grappling advantage, which he should exploit. Over 5 Rounds, he will have Max Holloway on the ground multiple times, perfect for submission attempts.”
Corrie – Max Holloway
- I think Max’s biggest advantage here is that he can weaponize consistency since Charles is dangerous everywhere, but Max is so good at staying present, staying active, and forcing a pace that can slowly take the fight out of people.
The Fight Analyst – Max Holloway
- “The odds should be a lot closer, however, Holloway’s defensive grappling should be good enough to get him back to his feet and stay out of danger. On the feet, Holloway’s volume striking should be too much for Oliveira over 5 rounds to defend his BMF title.”
Austin Swaim – Charles Oliveira
- “In many ways, this BMF title fight will force both fighters into discomfort. Max’s elite anti-grappling will prove useful against Charles, but his lack of power can help Oliveira stay in this fight longer despite his defensive mistakes. I see a five-round standup war where “Do Bronx” has a power advantage and the ability to steal rounds with timely takedowns or backpack positions.”
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder
HayJive – Caio Borralho
- “Borralho has more ways to win, clearly the better striker in the matchup and I don’t see him losing too many minutes in the grappling.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Caio Borralho
- “I think Caio will make it boring and fight around the outside. He’s got the grappling to offset RDR’s game as well. Could be a close fight though.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Caio Borralho
- “Reinier de Ridder is good but Borralho’s ability to adapt given his opponent is what will make the difference here. “
Corrie – Caio Borralho
- “If De Ridder does his best work in chaos, Caio feels like exactly the kind of guy to shut that down. He’s cleaner, more composed, and way better at keeping fights where he wants them. If he can keep this one structured, it should start looking like a Caio type of fight pretty quickly.”
The Fight Analyst – Caio Borralho
- “Borralho’s distance management will make it difficult for de Ridder to close the distance and Borralho’s grappling is good enough to defend the takedowns and keep this fight standing where it’s his fight to lose.”
Austin Swaim – Reinier de Ridder
- “Gameplan will be everything in the co-main event. It’ll be interesting to see if Borralho trusts his grappling to wade into those waters against RDR. If not, this could be a low-volume fight at distance where RDR’s knees and elbows could have significant moments as they did against Robert Whittaker.”
Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
HayJive – Raul Rosas Jr.
- “Font is a live dog, but it’s very hard to take him as a pure pick when his takedown defense sticks out like a sore thumb. Rosas likely banks the first 2 rounds with his grappling.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Raul Rosas Jr.
- “Raul’s youth and wrestling will give Font problems. Font needs him to gas out to win the last round and find a finish. I think Rosas will have a lot to control and even some submission attempts.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Raul Rosas Jr.
- “As much as there is an appeal to get Rob Font as a dog, I do believe the wrestling presence from Rosas Jr to be too much here.”
Corrie – Rob Font
- “I honestly do think Font could pull the upset. Raul’s the favorite for a reason, but if he can’t fully control the wrestling, Font has the durability, experience, and boxing to make this a real problem. Technically, this gets interesting if Font can defend early entries, keep the fight in open space, and turn it into a high-volume striking match where his shot selection and veteran composure start to matter.”
The Fight Analyst – Raul Rosas Jr.
- “This is certainly a tough matchup for Rosas, however, Font’s takedown defense has been nonexistent at the latter stages of his career. Expect Rosas to get some early takedowns and control to bank the first two rounds and skate by in round three to get the decision.”
Austin Swaim – Rob Font
- “Jean Matsumoto landed 7 takedowns against Font and lost a decision. Unless Raul Rojas’ hands have leveled up since his last fight, Font’s ability to stay safe on bottom and volume boxing could easily replicate that formula.”
Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson
HayJive – Michael Johnson
- “Johnson should be able to light up Dober early in this fight and maybe even find a KO. Dober could come on late, but I trust Johnson’s speed, footwork and Cardio to be too much.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Michael Johnson
- “Dober feels like a trap, as Michael is faster and the one with momentum. Johnson seems very motivated to add to the win streak.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Drew Dober
- “Seems logical, specially at this point in their careers.”
Corrie – Drew Dober
- “I strangely like this Dober because while Johnson may be the faster, cleaner striker but he can still be vulnerable if he gets forced backward and stuck in longer exchanges. Pressure, durability, and heavier shots usually matter more once a lightweight fight gets messy, and that’s why I’m leaning toward the side built to turn it into a brawl.”
The Fight Analyst – Drew Dober
- “This is a firefight that should end early and while Johnson has looked like he’s revived his career at 39 years old, Dober still possesses the power to crack Johnson and put him away.”
Austin Swaim – Drew Dober
- “I’ve got Dober as 56.2% likely to win, which indicates the line move here is valid. At the end of the day, MJ’s path to victory is outpointing Dober with his boxing, but a brawl significantly favors Drew’s chin, and don’t sleep on the Coloradan being able to score a timely takedown or two.”
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira
HayJive – Gregory Rodrigues
- “I really think if Rodrigues fights with an educated gameplan he should be able to wear down Ferreira. If he mixes up his striking, in to the clinch, and wears on him his cardio should be a big weapon here.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Gregory Rodrigues
- “Brunno caught Robocop on their first fight. That could happen again, but if it doesn’t Robocop could dominate and even finish Brunno.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Brunno Ferreira
- “He did it once, and I don’t see this matchup being too different from that.”
Corrie – Gregory Rodrigues
- “Brunno absolutely has upset potential, but I still lean Robocop. He’s more tested, more well-rounded, and if he can weather that early danger, his size and overall game should start taking over.”
The Fight Analyst – Brunno Ferreira
- “Ferreira has really improved during his time in the UFC meanwhile, Rodrigues seems to be the same fighter that caught in the first fight. Don’t see anything different in this matchup other than Rodrigues looks better early until he gets caught again.”
Austin Swaim – Gregory Rodrigues
- “When these two fighters met in 2023, Brunno Ferreira was a powerful, unknown underdog. Now, the betting number is almost the same when Robocop has mauled through ranked fighters as Ferreira was submitted by Abus Magomedov and had a negative striking differential against Marvin Vettori and Armen Petrosyan. I just think Rodrigues is a level above if his chin holds up
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