Expert Picks: UFC Baku
The UFC makes history this Saturday, June 21, as the Octagon lands in Azerbaijan for the first time, broadcasting live from the Baku Crystal Hall. The main event features a high-stakes light heavyweight clash between former champion Jamahal Hill and the surging Khalil Rountree Jr., both eager to reassert themselves in the title picture after recent setbacks. Hill, known for his crisp boxing and knockout power, is hungry to bounce back after tough losses to Alex Pereira and Jiří Procházka, while Rountree, fresh off a gutsy performance against Pereira, looks to prove he’s a true contender at 205 pounds.
The co-main event promises fireworks as dynamic lightweight strikers Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes collide. Fiziev, desperate to halt a three-fight skid, faces a surging Bahamondes, who’s riding a three-fight win streak and looking to crack the top 10. Heavyweight action is also on tap with Curtis Blaydes taking on Rizvan Kuniev, and local favorite Tofiq Musayev faces Myktybek Orolbai in a pivotal lightweight bout.
The card is stacked with international talent and local prospects, including Nazim Sadykhov, Muhammad Naimov, and women’s middleweight standouts Ismail Naurdiev and Jun Yong Park. Expect an electric atmosphere as Azerbaijan welcomes the UFC in style.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Baku.
Hill vs Rountree | HOF
Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
- HayJive – Khalil Rountree Jr.
“I’m gonna take Rountree here as I think he’ll have a significant speed advantage early on. If his cardio can hold up he should be able to land sharp strikes on Hill.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Jamahal Hill
“Rountree is great early but has shown to slow down after a few rounds. People forget Jamahal Hill has set records for output and pace. Fading the public here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Khalil Rountree Jr.
“Rountree is the more damaging fighter, even if we look at numbers. While he has some suspicious losses in his career, his fight IQ when it comes to striking is above average. Hill, despite being KO’d in back to back bouts, was finished by two of the hardest names in the division. I can see him losing on basis of damage, while having his moments late.”
- Corrie – Jamahil Hill
“Dog or pass here for me, it’ll be close but Hill’s more active and manages range really well and if he continues to do that, I think he’ll be able to outland Rountree for over 3 rounds of this considering he’s the stronger cleaner striker here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Jamahal Hill
“Jamahal Hill is being a bit underestimated here due to his 2-fight losing streak to the former champs. In this matchup against Khalil Rountree Jr., it should be a relatively close kickboxing match. The power of Hill will be evident early, so expect Hill to land his strikes at range and as the fight progresses, he will land a thunderous shot, putting Rountree Jr. down to get back into the win column.”
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
- HayJive – Ignacio Bahamondes
“Fiziev has the better striking credentials but Bahamondes has the length, volume, and cardio advantage. If he can use that to chip away and make Fiziev work I think he can take a win here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Ignacio Bahamondes
“These two have opposite career trajectories, where Fiziev is on a 3 fight losing streak, and Bahamondes is working his way to the top. The size difference will be a major advantage for Ignacio as well.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Rafael Fiziev
“Another bout I’m not confident in, I do see Fiziev having the upper hand on the feet, despite the size disadvantage. Bahamondes at times can be vulnerable for openings, and Fiziev, in a pure striking bout will win 80% of the times. I’m expecting him to explore the body shot a lot.”
- Corrie – Rafael Fiziev
“This one’s as much of a pick’em as it gets. Fiziev has only lost to that high tier competition, but the real question is, does experience and pedigree beat momentum here? So slight lean on Fiziev, but not confident here outside of the likelihood of this ending in a decision.”
- The Fight Analyst – Rafael Fiziev
“It’s not every day I pick a fighter on a 3-fight skid, however, Rafael Fiziev’s losses were to Justin Gaethje (twice), and a blown ACL was his other loss to Mateusz Gamrot. While this is a tough matchup against the tallest lightweight in the UFC, Ignacio Bahamondes, Bahamondes has been susceptible against technical kickboxers (John Makdessi, L’udovit Klein). If Fiziev can navigate the reach to get in on the inside, utilize his high guard, and rip those thunderous kicks, he can get back on track by outstriking Bahamondes to a decision victory.”
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
- HayJive – Curtis Blaydes
“I’ve never been a Blaydes guy, if he doesn’t use his wrestling his striking is solid but nothing special. I’ll take a flyer on Kuniev here to grind out a win.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Curtis Blaydes
“This should be a good way for Blaydes to keep his spot in the rankings and remind us all why he’s been around the top for a while. I think it’s too soon for Kuniev, and a super tough UFC debut.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Curtis Blaydes
“I believe in Blaydes’ experience inside the UFC higher levels. I also believe he can be crafty here unless he gets chinned early. It’s not a super confident play, though one I’m excited see unfold.”
- Corrie – Curtis Blaydes
“Gotta stick with the proven vet. Blaydes is one of the toughest names in the division and I think he’ll be able to put away the UFC deb in the spot considering how large of a step up this will be in competition of Kuniev.”
- The Fight Analyst – Curtis Blaydes
“The UFC is surprisingly trying to fast-track Rizvan Kuniev to the top of the division by giving him a former title challenger, Curtis Blaydes in his UFC debut. The last time they tried to fast-track a prospect against Blaydes was when Blaydes finished Jailton Almeida at UFC 299. Blaydes is the better striker by a good margin and is an exceptional wrestler. Expect this fight to be too much too soon for Kuniev as Blaydes comes away with yet another finish and gets back into the win column this weekend.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Myktybek Orolbai vs. Tofiq Musayev
- HayJive – Myktybek Orolbai
“Musayev will be very explosive early on, but I trust Orolbai’s pressure and durability to take over as the fight progresses.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Tofiq Musayev
“Oralbai has shown to be extremely hittable, and Tofiq can crack. I expect Tofiq’s wrestling to atleast allow him to not be controlled and have big moments on the feet.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Myktybek Orolbai
“Underrated matchup, will come down to the details and I believe Orlobai has had that experience in the UFC of distancing himself in these closer bouts.”
- Corrie – Myktybek Orolbai
“Tofiq’s age and long layoff coming into his UFC debut scares me too much to pull the trigger on him in this spot… If he’s able to stuff takedowns early it might be a good live spot but for right now I’m taking Orolbai and I fear the odds look right here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Tofiq Musayev
“Better late than never for Tofiq Musayev to make his UFC debut. I’ve been high on him during his time in Bellator and RIZIN. He’s an exceptional striker with the power to KO anyone in the lightweight division. He has his work cut out for him against Myktybek Orolbai, who’s very well-rounded. If Musayev can fend off the takedowns and keep this fight standing, another highlight-reel KO could be on the horizon in his UFC debut.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta
- HayJive – Nazim Sadykhov
“Motta will have his chances to land big shots on Sadykhov early on, but Nazim has shown some great durability. I think Nazim breaks him as the fight goes on.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Nazim Sadykhov
“As long as Nazim stays locked in, he should be able to use all aspects of MMA to wear down, damage, and beat Nikolas Motta.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Nazim Sadykhov
“Motta has been on an interesting run, though the truth is Sadykhov is a dark-horse in this lightweight division. Silently improving, while fighting a stylistically favorable opponent at home court.”
- Corrie – Nazim Sadykhov
“These sharper strikers have been my kryptonite lately and he’s a better wrestler. Mix that in with fighting in front of a home crowd? I think it’s Nazim all day. Motta’s tough, but he’s outgunned here and has shown some durability issues in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sadykhov gets it done inside the distance.”
- The Fight Analyst – Nazim Sadykhov
“This fight should be an absolute barnburner for however long it lasts. Nazim Sadykhov came through with a big win over Ismael Bonfim, who I rate more so than Nikolas Motta, especially on the feet. While Motta is dangerous, he can be finished, and he is wild at times. Also, Sadykhov has the advantage on the mat if he wants to take it there. Ultimately, Sadykhov should come in there, land something flush on Motta, and put him away early to extend his winning streak.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad
- HayJive – Bogdan Grad
“Grad is an awkward but gritty fighter that will always have a chance to win fights with his overall activity. Naimov is nothing special in my opinion, so I’ll take a shot on the Underdog in Grad.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Muhammad Naimov
“Grad has been to close decisions with guys like Aswell who didn’t look great in his debut, and was also getting beat by Lucas Alexander until Alexander beat himself. Naimov’s experience should take him far in this one.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Muhammad Naimov
“While Grad is tough and aggressive, I can see his fights being closer and more disputed the longer the fights go. Naimov benefits from these closer fights utilizing primarily control time.”
- Corrie – Muhammad Naimov
“He’s the more durable fighter, and while Grad puts up big striking numbers, he also gets hit way too much to trust over three rounds BUT both guys usually go the distance, so I also like the over in what feels like a pretty competitive competitive fight.”
- The Fight Analyst – Muhammad Naimov
“I was high on Bogdan Grad in his last fight against Lucas Alexander because I knew he could get the finish on the mat. That can’t be said here in this matchup with Muhammad Naimov. Naimov is well-rounded, has excellent takedown defense, and is the better striker in this matchup. If Naimov can avoid the big shots on the feet, as well as being put on his back, he should take over down the stretch as Grad gasses and put him away late or get the nod on the judge’s scorecards.”
UFC | X
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