Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Des Moines
UFC returns to Iowa for the first time in 25 years with a stacked card at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines this Saturday, headlined by a pivotal bantamweight clash between Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo. Both men are looking to rebound from recent setbacks. Sandhagen seeks to reassert his title credentials after a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, while Figueiredo, the former flyweight king, aims to prove he’s a true threat at 135 pounds after a defeat to Petr Yan ended his impressive run at bantamweight.
Sandhagen’s length, movement, and striking variety have made him a perennial contender, but questions linger about his close-range tools and his tendency to fight defensively when pressured. Figueiredo, meanwhile, has shown flashes of brilliance at bantamweight with wins over Rob Font and Marlon Vera, but recent images have raised concerns about his conditioning and weight management ahead of this crucial bout.
The co-main event features undefeated wrestling phenom Bo Nickal against former ONE Championship double champ Reinier de Ridder, in a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup that could propel the winner into title contention at middleweight.
With veterans like Santiago Ponzinibbio, Daniel Rodriguez, and Jeremy Stephens also featured, UFC Des Moines promises high-stakes action and potential shake-ups across multiple divisions.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Des Moines.
Figueiredo vs Sandhagen | HOF
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
- HayJive – Cory Sandhagen
“This looks like a great spot for Sandhagen to bounce back with a win. There are very few holes in Sandhagens game for Figgy to exploit, and I expect Sandhagen to win with a high output of a variety of strikes.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Cory Sandhagen
“Figgy is 37 now, up a weight class from where he was dominant, and fighting a guy with good volume, tricky striking, and good grappling. It’s hard to see where figgy could win this.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Cory Sandhagen
“Figgy is quite durable and while there is a size discrepancy, I believe the power advantage on Figgy will help him assure Cory doesn’t open as much as he’d like. Moreover, on the ground Figgy will be able to survive and even thrive at moments.”
- Corrie – Cory Sandhagen
“Gotta stick with the younger guy with the better volume here. I think Deiveson’s going to have a tough time keeping up with Cory over five rounds, so unless he pulls something off early, I’m giving it to Cory by keeping the fight at range and staying movement-heavy throughout.”
- The Fight Analyst – Cory Sandhagen
“Cory Sandhagen comes in with a chip on his shoulder as he was passed up for another title shot for Sean O’Malley. With that, I thoroughly expect Sandhagen to put on a career-best performance against Deiveson Figueiredo. Sandhagen is arguably better in every aspect of MMA than Figueiredo but Figueiredo’s toughness will keep him in the fight to the end. Ultimately Sandhagen comes away with 50-45 or 49-46 unanimous decision victory.”
Nickal vs de Ridder | HOF
Bo Nickal vs. Reinier de Ridder
- HayJive – Bo Nickal
“Who knows how Nickal will approach this fight? If I had to guess he’ll go the route like he did against Paul Craig, mainly striking and avoiding the biggest threat which is De Ridders grappling. I think Nickal does enough to get his hand raised once again.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Bo Nickal
“I think Bo fights a similar gameplan to his last fight against Paul Craig. Bo has the skills to keep this standing, stay away from RDR’s grappling, and use his speed advantage to outstrike him for 15 minutes.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Bo Nickal
“This is a full out narrative play. The UFC wants Bo Nickal to succeed and De Ridder is a good entry point. I could see a similar scenario to Paul Craig were little risk has been taken. I could see this being his approach for a while as he goes up in competition and develops his game.”
- Corrie – Reinier de Ridder
“Knowing that Bo Nickal stood and traded with Paul Craig makes me think that if he doesn’t dominate early against someone with a strong ground game, he gets timid, but he also just ends up looking super uncomfortable on the feet whereas RDR has insane jiu-jitsu credentials and passing striking so I think this is going to be a major test for Bo, especially if Reinier actually forces him to grapple like he says he will so I’ll go RDR on this one.”
- The Fight Analyst – Bo Nickal
“Much like JJ alluded to, this is a favorable matchup that the UFC is giving Bo Nickal to get a ranking next to his name. While Reinier de Ridder is very dangerous on the ground, he has trouble getting it there as we saw against Gerald Meerschaert. Also, de Ridder has some of the worst striking in the division and made Meerschaert look like a golden gloves champion. Nickal should fight similarly like he did against Paul Craig, utilizing his wrestling to keep the fight standing he has the advantage outstriking de Ridder to a unanimous decision victory.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
- HayJive – Santiago Ponzinibbio
“A couple of aging vets throwing down. I believe Ponzi is a little more game at this point in their careers, and will battle more in a dog fight. Give me Ponzi by KO or Decision.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Santiago Ponzinibbio
“If you ask me who’s more game to be in a dog fight, it’s Ponz all day long. Drod lacks big power at this age, where as I believe Ponz can walk him down and land his own big shots here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Santiago Ponzinibbio
“I can see Ponzinibbio being the more well rounded fighter and his last fight gave me hope he still has the ability to get apart from D-Rod. D-Rod’s durability could make it hard for a finish to occur however.”
- Corrie – Santiago Ponzinibbio
“I think this comes down to who believes they “still got it” and honestly Santiago’s R3 TKO over Carlston Harris will make him believe that, his training camp tape shows he believes that, and Daniel Rodriguez has just become a stoner – Not to mention, his recent wins have just been close decisions so… I’m leaning Santiago here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Santiago Ponzinibbio
“While betting on either Santiago Ponzinibbio or Daniel Rodriguez at this stage of their careers is a crap shoot, it looks as if Ponzinibbio is the one having more left in the tank. Ponzinibbio should be the aggressor and the one landing the bigger strikes to sway the judging to get the nod on the scorecards.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
- HayJive – Daniel Marcos
“Jackson is not a very active fighter, but everytime out you see a lot of potential. My biggest issue is he tends to be low volume, and reliant on his power. If Marcos can avoid the big shots, I think he can win a decision here.
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Montel Jackson
“Marcos is undefeated, but he’s yet to face a younger striker who’s this explosive, long, and has the ability to match him at range. I could also see Montel with a grappling advantage. Montel is always live for that one big KO shot.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Montel Jackson
“This is a sleeper high level fight. Jackson has a bit more power, though Marcos is durable and can strike at range. I can see Montel Jackson having the bigger moments.”
- Corrie – Montel Jackson
“Both guys are at a pivotal point in their careers, and a win pushes either of them up the bantamweight ladder, but Marcos tends to absorb a lot more damage, and Montel’s got a clear edge in the grappling department. I could see it going the distance, but I’m leaning Montel to take it.”
- The Fight Analyst – Montel Jackson
“Montel Jackson has been one of the top prospects in the bantamweight division for quite some time, but his inactivity has hindered his rise to the top of the division. Now, he gets to continue his rise and extend his winning streak to five in a row against the undefeated and surging Daniel Marcos. Jackson has the size, strength, and power to be Marcos’ kryptonite. Jackson is going to count Marcos at range and stuff any takedowns thrown his way. Jackson has the ability to get the KO, but he should just punish Marcos to a wide decision victory.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey
- HayJive – Cameron Smotherman
“This matchup comes down to Smothermans durability. We’ve seen him hurt and KO’d before, but if he can extend this fight, I see him overwhelming Sidey with volume boxing combinations.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Serhiy Sidey
“Smotherman is very technical, but he seems to want a pretty fight and Sidey will stay in his face and overwhelm him with volume. There’s also a question on Smotherman’s chin and I believe Sidey can test that at some point here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Serhiy Sidey
“Not willing to overthink here. Sidey is a solid well-rounded fighter where I feel Smotherman can be left without options if his gameplan doesn’t work out.”
- Corrie – Serhiy Sidey
“Smotherman’s high volume comes with weak takedown defense, which is risky against someone like Sidey who has the submission skills. Smotherman’s been finished before, while Sidey’s only lost on the scorecards, plus, Sidey just got engaged in January and weddings are expensive… That bonus money isn’t going to earn itself.”
- The Fight Analyst – Cameron Smotherman
“This is a fight where Cameron Smotherman can shine with his slick boxing ability. We’ve seen Sidey have trouble against pure strikers in Garrett Armfield and Ramon Taveres and now Smotherman looks to replicate their success. As long as Smotherman’s chin can hold up and he presses forward, he should be able to land his shot,s potentially putting Sidey away late or get the nod on the scorecards.”
Stephens vs Jones | HOF
Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
- HayJive – Mason Jones
“Stephens is always live for a knockout/Blood and guts brawl. But Jones is the more complete fighter with much more success in MMA recently. I think Jones will take this by mixing in some grappling to make Stephen’s hesitant to throw.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Mason Jones
“Stephen’s is built for BKFC, but now he’s back to worrying about defending a full MMA game against a guy who’s 15-2. Jeremy is much older now, and if the big KO shot doesn’t come I think he gets out worked, maybe even hurt, or out grappled.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mason Jones
“As much as we’d like to see Stephens get an upset KO, the reality is he hasn’t competed under the MMA ruleset in a while and I can see the Jones ground and pound being a possibility if the takedowns comes easy.”
- Corrie – Mason Jones
“Mason, in his prime, just went 4-0 on the regional scene with three early TKOs after leaving the UFC on his own accord for more experience, and now he’s back. Jeremy Stephens is nearly 39, bounced around promotions leaving MMA entirely for BKFC… To me this looks like a one-off hometown sendoff but ultimately if Mason fights smart and uses his grappling, this feels like a clear finish and a test he should pass considering Stephens doesn’t want to do anything but trade on the feet.”
- The Fight Analyst – Mason Jones
“I am very surprised that Jeremy Stephens is back in the UFC, just because he went 3-1-1 between boxing and BKFC, we forget that he’s just 1-4 in his five MMA fights. However, this fight should be a barnburner against Jones, who left the UFC abruptly to gain more experience on the regional scene, which he did just that rattling off four straight wins. While Stephens is certainly is on his last legs, I expect him to hang in there with Jones but be on the wrong end of a unanimous decision as Jones gets back into the UFC win column.”
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