Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Houston
UFC Fight Night returns to Houston’s Toyota Center on Saturday, February 21, with a compelling middleweight main event pitting former champion Sean Strickland against surging contender Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. This matchup represents a legitimate title eliminator, as the winner could very well be next in line to challenge current champion Khamzat Chimaev.
Strickland (29-7) brings his trademark volume striking and suffocating pressure against Hernandez (15-2), who enters on an incredible eight-fight winning streak. The former champion’s relentless jab and forward march have troubled every opponent, but Hernandez presents a legitimate grappling threat that could test Strickland’s takedown defense. Fluffy has earned four Performance of the Night bonuses during his streak, including submissions over Roman Dolidze and Brendan Allen, showcasing elite ground skills that Strickland has rarely faced.
The co-main features welterweights Geoff Neal and Uros Medic in a crucial rankings battle. Featherweight standout Dan Ige faces Melquizael Costa, while heavyweight Serghei Spivac battles Ante Delija. Michel Pereira takes on the surging Zach Reese in a middleweight bout, not expecting to see the scorecards, adding intrigue to an already stacked main card.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Houston.
Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez
- HayJive – Anthony Hernandez
“I don’t expect Fluffy to dominate Strickland here, but he should have an easier time implementing what he wants to do. I see fluffy overwhelming with takedown attempts, clinch work, and pressure boxing to take a decision.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Anthony Hernandez
“This fight could be close, but Fluffy is still improving and the wrestling should be enough to win a lot of minutes in this fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Sean Strickland
“I believe that Strickland’s striking is far superior, while having the grappling to survive and cardio to sustain the Fluffy attacks.”
- Corrie – Anthony Hernandez
“Sean’s not the old Sean anymore y’all, and if he can’t establish distance and gets forced into repeated defensive scrambles, this turns into control time and dominant rounds for Fluffy easily. I mean we saw what he did to Dolidze, absolutely ragdolled. Add in the inherent violence factor and pour gasoline over the whole fire with the post from Sean earlier this week? It’s all Fluffy.”
- The Fight Analyst – Anthony Hernandez
“While this will be a tough fight for Hernandez in the early going, his pace over five rounds will drown Strickland either to a late finish or unanimous decision for his ninth win in a row.”
- Austin Swaim – Anthony Hernandez
“Sean Strickland’s resume has aged like his act at the microphone. I don’t know if unsubstantiated camp rumors about his grappling are enough to believe he’s the first guy to turn away Fluffy Hernandez’s non-stop onslaught in years. Instead, I think it’s more likely than not that Hernandez’s high-volume submission offense finishes the American, but the best bet in the main event is an early stoppage of any kind.”
Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic
- HayJive – Geoff Neal
“Medic is always dangerous, but I have to believe the step up in competition here will bring him back to earth. Neal won’t be intimidated in the slightest with what Medic brings, but Medic will finally feel what a top 15 welterweight looks like.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Geoff Neal
“This is a step up in competition for Uros, and a step down for Neal. I feel Neal has something to prove in this spot.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Uros Medic
“Neal is quite durable, though I think the Prates knockout is tough to recover, considering Medic is his chosen bounce-back opponent.”
- Corrie – Geoff Neal
“Medic is 100% finish rate chaos (win or lose that if), but Neal is a massive step up in competition with a solid takedown defense to keep it standing and if that happens, and this stays a clean striking match, Neal’s experience and durability edge will neutralize Medic’s volatility… Neal has also been fighting the top of the top lately so fingers crossed for a walk in the park.”
- The Fight Analyst – Uros Medic
“Neal is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Carlos Prates, the first of his career, and now he gets another heavy hitter in Medic. With him getting up there in age, the durability could be falling off and with the aggression, power, and youth of Medic I think he secures another KO victory this weekend.”
- Austin Swaim – Uros Medic
“The Carlos Prates result was a rare lapse in durability for Geoff Neal, but at 35 years old, that trend is more likely than not to continue. Uros Medic’s 3.83% knockdown rate is the highest of any welterweight that has five-plus starts on the roster, too. I ultimately think a couple of those big moments decide a fight that could be longer and more competitive than most are anticipating.”
Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa
- HayJive – Dan Ige
“Melky is on a nice win streak, but I still have questions. I think Ige can counter the kicks from costa to steal big moments, and don’t be surprised if he mixes in some of his own grappling.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Dan Ige
“This is another step up in competition for Melk Costa, and Ige has the tools to beat anyone around this ranking. If Ige applies pressure he can find a lot of success.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Melquizael Costa
“Quality, has decent range management and can mix it up. For me, it’s quite simple.”
- Corrie – Melquizael Costa
“Ige always has knockout power, but Costa is on a serious run and has been managing range beautifullyyy, especially with his clean kicking game and honestly he’ll likely have the volume edge over 3 rounds should this go deep. But ultimately, unless Dan lands something huge, this looks like a technical, space-controlled decision for Melky.”
- The Fight Analyst – Melquizael Costa
“Costa has looked like a legitimate contender at 145 pounds as he comes off that brutal headkick KO of Charriere in his last fight. His rangy striking and sneaky good submission game is a tall ask for the declining Ige and it will be too much over 15 minutes.”
- Austin Swaim – Melquizael Costa
“I, at least, want to humor my model’s notion that Dan Ige has spent a lot of time in bottom position without ceding a submission and might be due for regression. Costa has also shown willing sub offense at 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. At worst, I think the Brazilian’s reliable chin and striking volume can carry him to a decision.”
Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija
- HayJive – Ante Delija
“Spivac could sway this fight his way with 1 takedown, but every fight starts in the feet. If Delija connects once early on, this fight could be over quickly.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Ante Delija
“The speed and power might make it hard for Spivac to get his game going. I don’t think Spivac likes getting pressured and damaged, and that’s what Ante brings to the cage.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Ante Delija
“Underrated, has good takedown defense and undeniably has better striking than Spivac.”
- Corrie – Ante Delija
“Not a lot of stake in this one, but Spivac feels to be on the downhill and he’s really only been doing well against lower-level guys, not to mention, he tends to visibly struggle when he gets overwhelmed, so I think that Selija’s size, pressure, and wrestling strength will make it hard for Spivac to dictate grappling exchanges.”
- The Fight Analyst – Serghei Spivac
“Seeing as everyone believes this will be one way traffic leads me to believe Spivac has a chance if he can survive the onslaught in round 1. Outside of round 1 his chances increase dramatically, and I believe Delija not having Aspinall to train with for this fight will be a detriment, as Spivac smothers him on the ground potentially getting the finish on the mat or the decision victory.”
- Austin Swaim – Ante Delija
“If you’ve been able to keep Serghei Spivac at distance, you’ve largely dominated him. I think that’s an achievable goal for the Croatian favorite, who is one of Tom Aspinall’s primary training partners. I like a bounce-back spot for Delija after the officiating gaffe against Waldo Cortes-Acosta.”
Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell
- HayJive – Jacobe Smith
“Jacobe is a legit top 1% athlete in the UFC and you have to think he’s getting better. His cardio has looked concerning, and Harrell could expose that late. But the finishing upside early in this fight is too much to overlook.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Josiah Harrell
“I’m going against the hot prospect after seeing his gas tank dwindle against Niko Price. Harrell has great cardio and wrestling to counter Smiths game especially late in the fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jacobe Smith
“One of the best prospects in the UFC, will have a grappling and strength advantage.”
- Corrie – Josiah Harrell
“One of my favorite dogs on the card honestly but proceed with caution, as his winning is truly reliant on my theory of Smith having an iffy gas tank… (It highkey dipped badly against Niko Price tho okay), PLUS all of the regional scene guys he faced to build his record to 11-0 has terribleee records. That said, Harrell is scrappy, hes durable, and he is so tactfully aware that a middle/late momentum flip is more than likely here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Jacobe Smith
“Smith has looked every ounce of the elite prospect we’ve seen since his time on the Contender Series. There certainly is question marks about his cardio with all that muscle and power he possesses. But if he can land his strikes early against Harrell who’s coming in on about a week’s notice he could put him away early and keep his unbeaten streak alive.”
- Austin Swaim – Josiah Harrell
“Jacobe Smith has yet to really traverse into deep waters after pummeling three foes in an octagon setting. Josiah Harrell’s survivability — clearly — goes beyond just the cage, but his balance against takedown attempts and short, sneaky shots in close range could meaningful wear on Smith as this fight progresses.”
Zach Reese vs. Michel Pereira
- HayJive – Michel Pereira
“Big step up for Reese here and I’m just not sold. I know Pereira is on a skid, but this is the exact step down in competition I think he needs to get some confidence back.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Michel Pereira
“I keep looking for a way that Zach wins, but honestly I think pereira can find big shots, anti wrestle, and win the big moments or find a KO.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Michel Pereira
“Buy low spot for Pereira. I do believe we see him hurting Reese on the feet and finding the finish on the ground.”
- Corrie – Zach Reese
“This is one I’m mostly staying away from, but if I had to lean, I’d lean Reese just because he’s more likely to initiate the wrestling imo, and if he commits to that consistently, he can force Pereira into defensive grappling spots where Michel’s recent gas tank concerns become a factor, so unless Pereira either lands something big early or ends up on top in those exchanges, I could see Zach grinding this out and maybe finding a finish on the ground.”
- The Fight Analyst – Michel Pereira
“This is certainly a step up for Reese if Pereira actually shows up. Reese did not look good in the early going against McVey and someone like Pereira who has power and size could pose the same type of problems. As long as Pereira is on his game and chooses to fight he should get back in the win column emphatically.”
- Austin Swaim – Zach Reese
“No result in this fight would be overly surprising given Pereira’s inconsistency and Reese’s inexperience, but the Shriner native will have a massive size advantage just a couple of hours from his hometown. Those physical tools could be the difference in what profiles to be a firefight.”
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