Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Mexico

UFC Mexico

This weekend, the UFC returns to Mexico City with a thrilling Fight Night event headlined by a pivotal flyweight clash between former champion Brandon Moreno and rising contender Steve Erceg. Moreno, coming off an impressive victory over Amir Albazi, looks to solidify his position as the division’s top contender. Erceg, meanwhile, aims to bounce back from recent setbacks and prove he belongs among the elite.

The co-main event features an explosive lightweight bout between Manuel Torres and Drew Dober, promising fireworks as both fighters are known for their finishing abilities. In a middleweight showdown, Kelvin Gastelum faces the hard-hitting Joe Pyfer, with both men seeking to climb the rankings.

Rising star Raul Rosas Jr. takes on the tough Vince Morales in a bantamweight contest that could propel the winner into contention. The card also showcases a mix of local talent and international fighters, with 11 of the 13 scheduled bouts featuring Mexican athletes or fighters of Mexican descent.

The Home of Fight Experts are here to help put cash into your pockets for this stacked fight night event, so let’s see what they have cooking for this weekend!

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Brandon Moreno

“It’s clear Moreno is back taking his career serious after seeing what he did to Albazi. If that Moreno shows up, I think he will have Erceg covered almost everywhere, especially with his speed, fight IQ, footwork, and durability.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Steve Erceg

“This is a great buy low spot for Erceg who not even a full 365 days ago gave the champion the hardest fight of his title reign. He did get knocked out by KKF, but he is the hardest hitting flyweight. Moreno bounced back against Amir Albazi, who took a long time off and didn’t belong there. Let’s not forget how flat Moreno looked against Royval.”

• Austin Swaim – Steve Erceg

“I don’t trust that Moreno, training at Fortis, is “back” in a fight where a ring-rusted Albazi couldn’t score takedowns and got stuck at distance. Erceg’s boxing is a huge step up in a fight that likely goes the distance. I think he’s undervalued to win it in betting markets. Moreno, under a lot of pressure, is winless in Mexico.”

• Corrie – Brandon Moreno

“Brandon Moreno has been my guy lately, and as much as I love Steve Erceg, I went with Moreno by points. I see this fight coming down to who can land more, and based on his last performance, Moreno looked the best we’ve seen in a long time, if not ever, regardless of what Albazi was dealing with going into that fight, Moreno’s skill set stood out, and if he brings that same level, I think he gets the win.”

• The Fight Analyst – Brandon Moreno

“Erceg is coming off the worst loss of his career where he was flatlined by Kai Kara France which was his first knockout defeat. There’s a chance he is gunshy in his first fight post-knockout which is where someone as skilled as Moreno can capitalize. I expect this fight to play out the majority on the feet where Moreno mixes up his attacks better and the threat of the takedown will help as well. Expect Moreno to go in there outstrike Erceg, mix things up, and continue his momentum in Mexico City.”

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Manuel Torres

“Manuel Torres is due for a big bounce back fight, in Mexico City where he’s won before, infront of the Mexican crowd. Dober has taken so much damage, has scar tissue everywhere, and striking defense has just been stagnant over the years. I expect Torres to give him all he can handle for the first two rounds.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Manuel Torres

“Dober’s durability is going to be a factor for Torres who has all his submissions in R1. I could see Dober surviving the KO but getting chased by Torres on the ground, and finding that submission.”

• Austin Swaim – Manuel Torres

“I don’t know how you can watch Dober’s fight with Frevola and think Manuel Torres isn’t going to terminate this guy at distance in short order. El Loco has the grappling edge, too. Torres gets framed as a fraud by the “film bros” but routinely keeps putting pen to paper opposite solid unranked competition.”

• Corrie – Manuel Torres

“My gut instinct was Manuel Torres by early (T)KO… He’s really just an all-or-nothing round-one finisher thus far, and I love the way he uses his kicks to manage distance. Overall I think that Dober needs to land big early, but I worry he’s getting old and the war after war history he’s gone is starting to take a toll on him. If Dober can hang for 15, I still think.”

• The Fight Analyst – Manuel Torres

“While Manuel Torres did suffer his first knockout defeat but that was against the surging Ignacio Bahamondes. As for Dober he’s now just 1-3 in his last four fights with sole win coming against an inferior opponent Ricky Glenn. With the way Dober has been getting hurt latel leads me to believe that if Torres can crack his chin he’s going out.”

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Joe Pyfer

“Joe Pyfer’s striking and power should win him the big moments and look better to the judges in this fight. I also like the fact he’s a strong grappler and will find opportunities for finishes against anyone he fights.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Joe Pyfer

“I could see this being a close 29-28, with Joe Pyfer landing the more damaging shots in the earlier rounds and slowing down late R2 and R3.”

• Austin Swaim – Joe Pyfer

“Gastelum’s lost six of his last nine for a reason. His power is overrated in modern MMA, and he routinely doesn’t have the grappling skills to hang against guys well-versed in that area. Bodybagz’s advantages in both likely keep his ascent going.”

• Corrie – Joe Pyfer

“I think Kelvin Gastelum is beyond durable, but he’s undersized, has a sketchy record with getting submitted over the last few years, and I fear he may be out of his prime. My biggest hesitation on Pyfer is that this is how big of a test this is for him. Up against a vet and at extreme elevation? Regardless, I’m sticking with that favorite. Going Pyfer to win.”

• The Fight Analyst – Joe Pyfer

“Kelvin Gastelum has prided himself on being ultra tough and durable but that can only get you so far until age and wear tear gets to you. While he is 2-1 in his last three his only wins at 185 in the last 6 years is an undersized Chris Curtis and Ian Heinisch. Pyfer while still may have some flaws, he still has more skills in most areas than Gastelum. Pyfer has the chance to go in there and be the first to KO Gastelum this weekend however, if not he does more damage to get the nod on the scorecards.”

Raul Rosas Jr. Vince Morales

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Raul Rosas Jr.

“Raul Rosas Jr. will have a few advantages going his way such as the wrestling, strength, and control. Even though he’s shown to get tired, I believe he has enough to bank the first two rounds if not find a submission.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Raul Rosas Jr.

“Morales is durable and will not be finished early, but at elevation, an improved Rosas Jr with a submission threat is a recipe for a late SUB finish.”

• Austin Swaim – Raul Rosas Jr.

“Vince Morales speed-ran awful matchups in his second UFC stint. He’s shown insignificant power at distance, so this fight is probably a scramblefest where Rosas is quicker, has better cardio, and is even more experienced than Morales’ last opponent. Vince’s only shot is to stay at distance, and his 60% takedown D isn’t ideal.”

• Corrie – Raul Rosas Jr.

“I just don’t think 34 year old in-and-out Vince Morales gets the win over Rosas. He just lost a decision to Elijah Smith a month and a half ago and I just wasn’t impressed with that fight. I think the drive and the passion that Rosas has right now as a fighter will outweigh Vince Morales’ experience.”

• The Fight Analyst – Raul Rosas Jr.

“Rosas Jr. was really impressive in his last fight showcasing more of his striking to go along with his deadly submission game. His work over at Xtreme Couture sure has looked like it has been helping him grow as a fighter. While this certainly will be the toughest fight of his career since Christian Rodriguez back in 2023, Morales has had trouble with his takedown defense. I don’t see Morales getting finished but Rosas Jr. should be able to control enough in rounds 1-2 that he does enough to get the nod on the scorecards even after a strong round 3 from Morales.”

David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira

• Nolan (TheParlay) – David Martinez

“David Martinez is a great striker who’s shown great takedown defense and strength. The striking should be much better than Oliveira and while it’s standing Martinez should inflict much more damage.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – David Martinez

“I trust more in the durability and resistance of Martinez past the first round than I do of Oliveira’s who is primarily a first round fighter. In Mexico, I could see Martinez finding a later finish, in R2 or R3.”

• Austin Swaim – David Martinez

“Martinez’s kickboxing is unique and attacks all 3 areas, and I actually think his DWCS opponent was a stiffer test than this one. Saimon Oliveira’s been a zero at distance with no consistency to wrestle the fight to the ground himself. This seems like a highlight KO.”

• Corrie – David Martinez

“Too many question marks for me here… Saimon’s never really stood out yanno, he’’s a bit older, a bit low level, and hasn’t fought since UFC 283. Still, I’m siding with the favorite, even though this line is way too wide. I don’t mind a shot on Martinez by (T)KO, or even him winning on the scorecards if he just spends 15 minutes circling and outpointing.”

• The Fight Analyst – David Martinez

“David Martinez was one of the fighters I was looking forward to the most on the Contender Series last season and he showed up just as I expected when he dominated Xavier Franklin. In that fight he showed his flashy and crisp striking with much improved takedown defense which will be put to the test against Saimon Oliveira. Oliveira hasn’t fought in two years and has still yet to claim victory inside the octagon. Needless to say this most likely will be his last rodeo as Martinez goes in there starching him before the final bell making a statement in his UFC debut.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Ronaldo Rodriguez

“Rodriguez is kill or be killed, with a bit of power, good grappling, and will look for submissions on the ground. He will welcome a dog fight, and in front of his own crowd I believe he will find this win one way or another.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kevin Borjas

“Borjas has been in there with some tough talent and why I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, Rodriguez with a home-court advantage, and with proven ability to recover, but Borjas is skilled enough.”

• Austin Swaim – Kevin Borjas

“A brutal strength of schedule masks how good the Peruvian is, especially when you consider he faced arguably a tougher grappler on DWCS. Lazy Boy’s last fight was a rough look, and he’ll now draw someone better in both phases of MMA.”

• Corrie – Ronaldo Rodriguez

“I’m not done riding with Lazy Boy, he hasn’t done me wrong yet and I think he’s beyond durable… Borjas hasn’t gotten a win in the UFC yet and honestly, I’m not sure he gets one here either. To me this looks like Rodriguez has a solid submission game, and Borjas has an iffy takedown defense so I gotta stick with Rodriguez but I definitely think this is staying ITD.”

• The Fight Analyst – Ronaldo Rodriguez

“I have never been impressed with Kevin Borjas ever since he made his appearance on the Contender Series. It took Victor Dias death-gassing after five minutes while taking the fight on day’s notice for him to get the win. Borjas lacks in physicality, punching power, and defensive grappling, all of which will be his downfall against ‘Lazy Boy’. While Rodriguez certainly hasn’t looked like a world beater in his two UFC fights, he still has the power on the feet and grappling to make this a tough fight for the Peruvian. Expect Rodriguez to go in there, mix his striking with his grapplin,g eventually getting top position, where he will then get the submission and go 3-0 in his UFC career, extending his winning streak to eight in a row.”

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