Expert Picks: UFC Nashville
UFC Nashville returns to Bridgestone Arena this Saturday, promising an explosive night for MMA fans. The main event features a classic clash of styles as knockout king Derrick Lewis faces undefeated Brazilian phenom Tallison Teixeira. Lewis, the UFC’s all-time KO leader, looks to halt the rise of Teixeira, who stormed onto the scene with a 35-second debut knockout and boasts a 100% finish rate. This heavyweight showdown is a true test for both: Lewis’s veteran power against Teixeira’s surging momentum.
The co-main event brings back Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, a karate specialist known for his striking brilliance, as he takes on Gabriel Bonfim, a prolific finisher hungry for a statement win. Featherweight action sees Calvin Kattar, once called the UFC’s best boxer, square off with knockout artist Steve Garcia, whose five-fight KO streak makes this a can’t-miss matchup. Junior Tafa and Tuco Tokkos meet in a pivotal light heavyweight bout, while Vitor Petrino makes his heavyweight debut against Austen Lane, adding intrigue to the division’s future.
Rising prospect Fatima Kline opens the card against Melissa Martinez, and local favorite Nate Landwehr faces Morgan Charriere in what promises to be a brawl. With a blend of established stars and surging contenders, UFC Nashville is set to deliver fireworks from top to bottom.
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira
- HayJive – Tallison Teixeira
“Derrick Lewis can knock anybody out, but if he doesn’t land that one big punch he’s going to be in trouble. Teixeira has excellent kicks to go along with his hands, and I believe he’ll use that to find an early finish.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Derrick Lewis
“I’ll take the 30 UFC fight vet at big underdog odds, considering the power and experience. Tallison is in his 2nd UFC fight and already headlining a card, that’s a lot of pressure for a guy who’s never been out of the first round.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tallison Teixeira
“Not going to overthink this. Skillwise Teixeira is better and while Lewis is far more legit, I believe the raw skill of Teixeira, especially early will be enough to make a difference.”
- Corrie – Derrick Lewis
“Teixeira might be the shiny new toy, but his best win is literally over Justin Tafa and he’s only got 16 minutes of total cage time in his entire pro career. This is a massive step up, and Derrick Lewis may be old but he’s been in there with killers and still only needs one clean shot to end your night… Teixeira’s slick, but if he slows down, trades, or makes one wrong move, Derrick’s gonna remind him real fast that there are levels to this.”
- The Fight Analyst – Tallison Teixeira
“While Lewis has a boatload of high-level experience, this is one of the divisions where experience doesn’t matter as much. Teixeira possesses the intangibles, including an insane height and reach advantage, to complement his technical abilities on the feet and the mat, making him a force in a very shallow heavyweight division. I expect Teixeira to finish Lewis early and crack the top 10 of the heavyweight rankings.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim
- HayJive – Gabriel Bonfim
“Bonfim looks legit, and Wonderboy is only getting older. If Bonfim commits to the grappling here I think he takes it.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Stephen Thompson
“If Bonfim can’t get his wrestling going for 15 minutes, it’s going to be hard to hit wonderboy on the feet. We’ve also seen Bonfim slow down, get tired, and even get finished. I’ll take the crafty vet.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Gabriel Bonfim
“The organization knows what they want when they make these fights. Bonfim is a submission specialist, a decade younger facing a slower, aging Wonderboy, who to his credit is an elite striker, though we’ve seen finished in his last two.”
- Corrie – Stephen Thompson
“Bonfim’s got the tools I mean he’s younger, stronger, and well-rounded but this is a real fight IQ test against one of the trickiest strikers the division’s ever seen. Wonderboy may be 42, but he’s clean-living, still fast, and can turn anyone into a panic wrestler with his range and footwork and if Bonfim gets flustered, like both Bonfim brothers do when they face adversity in the cage, or can’t adjust mid-fight, this could turn into one of those weird vet decision wins we all saw coming but didn’t pull the trigger on. This one honestly gives me anxiety and the value just isn’t there on Bonfim for me so I’ll go Wonderboy just to try and feel something.”
- The Fight Analyst – Gabriel Bonfim
“I’ve been very high on Gabriel Bonfim ever since he was in LFA, and now he is getting fast-tracked to jump into the top-10 of the welterweight rankings just six fights into his UFC career. Stephen Thompson, even at 42, is no slouch, as he was winning against Joaquin Buckley until he got caught. Thompson will most likely be winning minutes on the feet in this fight as well; however, Bonfim’s pressure and grappling will nullify that, and even if he’s not able to land the takedowns, he will utilize his clinch work to avoid the open space. Ultimately, Bonfim avoids a kickboxing match with Thompson and utilizes his grappling to take the decision and get a ranking next to his name.
Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
- HayJive – Calvin Kattar
“Normally I’d go with the momentum, but Garcia has been hurt in many fights. He’s kill or be killed, and Kattar has never been finished. I’ll take Kattar here to get a W.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Calvin Kattar
“Finally a matchup for Kattar that suits him better. He will get the striking exchanges he wants, and should be the cleaner striker who can dish out damage himself.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Calvin Kattar
“Steve Garcia has been on an insane run finishing everyone, however we’ve seen glimpses of Kattar’s best attributes in his last fight, despite the loss. He showcased he can improve late, play on the pressure and make it harder for the opponent. This is what I believe will be the case here.”
- Corrie – Calvin Kattar
“Garcia’s dangerous but untested at this level, and Kattar’s been in there with straight-up killers without ever getting dropped and while I faded him last time he was in the cage, he just made the move from the struggling NE Cartel to TriSta, like kind of like Aiemann Zahabi did who then ended up finding tons of success late in his career, and that switch might be exactly what he needed to get back on track so that’s why I lean Kattar but the under is giving me the eyes and I’ll likely be firing on that considering that this fight will be one where both of these guys stay in center mat and try to kill each other while both being extremely hittable… Someone’s bound to break.”
- The Fight Analyst – Calvin Kattar
“Calvin Kattar looks like a former shell of himself with four-straight losses but that has been against the elite of the division, something I don’t believe Steve Garcia is just yet. I have doubted Garcia wrong on numerous occasions and he’s proved me wrong but I have take Kattar in this matchup who even in the decline still has the tools to box Garcia’s face off and keep his back off the mat to get the hard-fought decision and back into the win column.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere
- HayJive – Nate Landwehr
“Both men looked bad in their last fight, so this will be a good test to see who wants it more. I gotta believe in Nate here to use his experience, cardio, and overall skillset to get a W in front of his home crowd.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Morgan Charriere
“I think the speed and durability will be the difference in this spot. Morgan needs to pick up the volume a bit and should be able to pick up a win here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Morgan Charriere
“Nate the Train is a fan favorite and the reality is that I would love nothing more than to see him win, however the truth is Charriere is a tad more well-rounded, has good durability and power to hold back Nate.”
- Corrie – Nate Landwehr
“Morgan wins moments, not minutes and Nate is the worst possible matchup for that considering you get one chance to hurt him and then he just seems untouchable. Plus, the French are down bad in the UFC this year and Nate is the kind of guy that can stop these younger opponents when they’ve shown they break under pressure and 2. have only put away cans. (Btw Nate & his wife are expecting now so there’s motivation by having another mouth to feed!”
- The Fight Analyst – Morgan Charriere
“Expect a barnburner between these two featherweights whose backs are against the wall. Nate Landwehr is all gas, no brakes, which will be his demise against Morgan Charriere, who’s defensively sound, not to get caught and fire back with fast, quick, and explosive combinations. Expect Charriere to land a thunderous combination midway through this fight, putting Landwehr on skates, sitting him down to get the TKO, and get back into the win column.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane
- HayJive – Vitor Petrino
“Lane is improving, but it’s hard to put a full 15 minutes together when his chin has failed him many times. I think Petrino can KO him on the feet or look to take the fight to the ground where he’s the better grappler.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Vitor Petrino
“I don’t like this fight at all, but it’s hard to pick against a guy who’s been all in on fighting vs. an ex NFL player who’s still trying to find his game.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Vitor Petrino
“Lane isn’t well-rounded, is open for shots and can be exploited in multiple areas of the game. That being said, Petrino is making the move up, however I am more confident in him simply because of an athletic and skill advantage.”
- Corrie – Vitor Petrino
“Austen Lane falls apart after round one, is chinny af, and brings almost nothing to the table that could realistically beat Petrino. Vitor’s more durable, more powerful, and the move to heavyweight might actually help him carry that KO power a little longer so while there no value playing a -600 favorite, I like Vitor by t/ko. Btw, Austen’s been knocked out in 3 out of 4 of his last fights…”
- The Fight Analyst – Vitor Petrino
“The UFC is setting up Vitor Petrino for success in his heavyweight debut by giving him a sacrificial lamb in Austen Lane. While Lane is explosive and very athletic, so is Petrino. Lane can only win fights against fighters who trip over their own feet when going for a takedown; otherwise, he gets knocked out every other time. That is what’s expected here as Petrino gets an emphatic knockout inside two rounds as the UFC welcomes him to the heavyweight division.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos
- HayJive – Tuco Tokkos
“Very tough on to pick, but I’ll take a flyer on Tokkos. His level of competition under the UFC has not been easy, and I think he has a pretty well rounded game to go along with 15 minutes of cardio. If he mixes in grappling here, I believe he can win as Tafa has shown very little abilities on the mat.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Junior Tafa
“I think the move down to 205 will be good for Junior here. He just needs to keep the distance and should have a significant advantage on the feet. If he’s been getting better, we will see it in a matchup like this.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tuco Tokkos
“Betting wise, I will probably chose to stay away from this as both have proven to be unreliable, though I will pick Tokkos for the simple factor I believe he is a tad more well rounded and we don’t know how good Tafa will look at 205.”
- Corrie – Junior Tafa
“Junior Tafa might not be the most well-rounded fighter, but at 205 he’s just gonna be too strong and too fast Tuco Tukkos (who has no real path to win if his takedowns fail), not to mention the power that Tafa does have when he lands clean. Neither guy is high-level, but Tukkos absorbs a ton more damage, gasses out fast, and doesn’t do anything particularly well so I think Tafa walks him down and finishes him.”
- The Fight Analyst – Junior Tafa
“It is quite odd they are opening the main card with this light heavyweight matchup with Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani as the featured prelim. That leads me to believe that the UFC is hoping for a standout performance from Junior Tafa in his light heavyweight debut. While Tafa’s takedown defense still needs a ton of work, he does look like he’s been progressing a bit, and going against much smaller foes should help. Tuco Tokkos certainly is no slouch, and he’s going to attempt those takedowns, but Tafa should be able to fend them off, eventually landing the fight-ending blow to get the win in his light heavyweight debut.”
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