Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Perth

Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Perth

The UFC returns to Perth this Saturday for what promises to be one of the most explosive cards of 2026. The RAC Arena crowd will be electric as former welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena (18-3) steps back into the Octagon for the first time since dropping the belt to Islam Makhachev, looking to reassert himself against Brazilian knockout artist Carlos Prates (23-7). This is a stylistic dream matchup. Della Maddalena brings high-volume, technical output and the energy of an entire nation behind him, while Prates possesses genuine one-punch KO power, with all 13 of his recent wins coming by knockout. With both fighters sporting finish rates above 70%, don’t expect this one to go the distance.

In the co-main event, the lightweight division’s rising star Quillan Salkilld (11-1, 5-0 in UFC) faces a legitimate proving ground moment against the veteran Beneil Dariush (23-7-1). Salkilld has looked dominant through his unbeaten UFC run, but Dariush’s experience, 25 fights in the promotion, will test whether the hype is real.

Rounding out the main card, flyweight contender Steve Erceg looks to re-enter title contention against Tim Elliott, and the heavy-handed Shamil Gaziev seeks to bounce back against Aussie heavyweight prospect Brando Pericic in what could be a sleeper fight of the night. Top to bottom, UFC Perth has the makings of a card that delivers fireworks all night long.

With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Perth.

 

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

HayJive – Carlos Prates

• “I’ll take Carlos Prates here. Tough matchup for Jack Della Maddalena, as Prates has a wide range of weapons on the feet—knees, kicks, elbows, and punches. JDM needs to be in front of him to have success, but that plays right into Prates’ strengths.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Carlos Prates

• “Prates has more offensive weapons on the feet along with great power. I think you need more than boxing to beat him.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Carlos Prates

• “This is the perfect fight for him. JDM is a pure boxer, that will give Prates opportunities to time his shots and get his entries on counters and up the middle.”

The Fight Analyst – Carlos Prates

• “This fight should be an absolute banger! However, this is a bad stylistic matchup for JDM. While he is a great striker in his own right, the length, power, and versatility of Prates will be too much for JDM’s return fight.”

Austin Swaim – Jack Della Maddalena

• “There isn’t a greater gap between perceived ability of a fighter and analytical prowess than Carlos Prates, whose -0.72 SSR is awful. He’s used power as an equalizer against better competition, but I have no reason to doubt Della Maddalena’s chin or 63% striking defense to this point. By way of volume, I think JDM defends home turf; I have him modeled 67% to win.”

 

Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld

HayJive – Quillan Salkilld

• “Salkilld is at a much better point in his career. Still somewhat unproven, but Dariush’s durability is a concern at this stage. If he lands clean, he can end it. If not, things could get tricky, but I’ll still side with him.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Quillan Salkilld

• “Salkilld is much younger, faster, and far more dangerous now. The chin of Dariush has looked extremely concerning.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Quillan Salkilld

• “Beneil has been dropped in his last 4. Unfortunately, I feel his best days are behind him in terms of durability, especially against a fighter that has 3 of 4 UFC wins inside R1. “

The Fight Analyst – Quillan Salkilld

• “At this stage of his career, I don’t think Dariush has the chin to take a punch. Salkilld comes in there and emphatically finishes Dariush early in front of his home crowd.”

Austin Swaim – Quillan Salkilld

• “Beneil Dariush’s chin might not be quite as bad as some believe, but a younger, faster athlete like Quillan Salkilld carries that early knockout risk, and I also think he can add more damage in clinch situations if he can avoid the veteran’s crafty submission game. In a longer fight, give me the Aussie, who I have modeled 68.5% to win.”

 

Steve Erceg vs. Tim Elliott

HayJive – Steve Erceg

• “Elliott is a tricky veteran with an awkward style, but I don’t think he’ll have the same grappling edge here. Erceg should be able to keep this competitive and find his moments.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Steve Erceg

• “Elliott needs to wrestle for 15 minutes straight to win. Erceg matches up better with grapplers than he doesn’t fast powerful strikers and I think he has the submissions to threaten Elliott or use them to get back to the feet.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Steve Erceg

• “I can see their being a speed advantage here for Erceg. I believe if there’s a lower risk of getting finished, Erceg will fight more freely. “

The Fight Analyst – Tim Elliott

• “I did not like what I saw from Erceg in his fight against Ode Osbourne, and Elliott is not an easy out despite his recent run. He’s got the wrestling and scrambling ability to keep Erceg from just controlling him like he did Ode. Also, his awkwardness on the fee makes him hard to get a read on.”

Austin Swaim – Tim Elliott

• “Is it safe to say Steve Erceg might fight down to his competition level? The unusual style of “Awkward” Tim Elliott is hard to prepare for, and we’ve seen Erceg have trouble getting off his back at times. This should be a close, grimy decision, but I’ll take the dog. Elliott’s 47.3% modeled win probability is much better than his implied moneyline.”
  

 

Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid

HayJive – Marwan Rahiki

• “Rahiki is a big favorite for a reason. More experienced and the better overall fighter. Defensive lapses are there, but if he avoids early danger, he should win this comfortably.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Marwan Rahiki

• “It’s hard to beat Rahiki because he ensures you take major damage. His opponent is on very short notice which won’t help him against Rahiki.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Marwan Rahiki

• “Shmid has far less experience and there will be a massive talent discrepancy, especially on short notice.”

The Fight Analyst – Marwan Rahiki

• “Just another warm body the UFC matchmakers signed to give an up-and-coming prospect like Rahiki, to look good.”

Austin Swaim – Marwan Rahiki

• “I don’t trust “Freaky” Rahiki after hairy moments in his first two UFC-affiliated starts, but it won’t get easier than this the rest of his career. Ollie Schmid is a crafty, game foe from City Kickboxing, but it’d be stunning if Rahiki’s activity and combinations didn’t carry him to a win — even if he doesn’t find the finish.”
  

Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic

HayJive – Brando Pericic

• “I’ll take Jackson here. The height and reach, along with the finishing upside, stand out against a 38-year-old Barcelos. Barcelos could wrestle and make it tricky, but if Jackson keeps it at range and limits exchanges, his power could be the difference.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Brando Pericic

• “Brando is the more athletic guy, good power in the hands, and should be able to defend takedowns. At some point I believe he finds a big shot.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Brando Pericic

• “I do believe he has the better gas tank and will have a speed advantage.”

The Fight Analyst – Shamil Gaziev

• “Gaziev is far more experienced against a higher level of competition. If he goes in there and proactively wrestles and utilizes his clinch work, he should get back on track here against the CKB prospect.”

Austin Swaim – Shamil Gaziev

• “Brando Pericic could conceivably be snake oil at this stage. I don’t trust either win over Elisha Ellison or Louie Sutherland regardless of how dominant he’s looked. Before becoming Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s latest victim, “The Big Meal” Gaziev showcased dominant striking or wrestling against Martin Buday, Thomas Peterson, and Don’Tale Mayes. I have to trust his well-roundedness and experience.”

Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland

HayJive – Tai Tuivasa

• “This is a must-win for Tuivasa. He’s faced much higher-level competition, and this feels like a spot for him to bounce back. If he performs to his level, he should get it done.”

Nolan (TheParlay) – Louie Sutherland

• “Tuivasa is 0-6 now in his last 6 fights, and Sutherland is 0-2 in the UFC. However Sutherland’s motivation seems much higher.”

JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tai Tuivasa

• “Not confident, since it is Tuivasa we are talking about here, though let’s be honest, Sutherland got brutally knocked out over a month ago, so it may be a bit too much.”

The Fight Analyst – Tai Tuivasa

• “The UFC is desperately giving Tuivasa the chance to win in front of his home crowd by letting Sutherland step in on short notice.”

Austin Swaim – Tai Tuivasa

• “I just can’t believe how many people are putting Tai Tuivasa out to pasture because of six losses inside the rankings. Stepping back to the fringe of the roster, are we forgetting some of the other heavyweights he’s dismantled? Louie Sutherland hasn’t shown any promise in 2 UFC starts; I think this is a quick bonk and a patented ‘shooey’.”

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