Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Seattle
UFC touches down in the Pacific Northwest this weekend, bringing a stacked Seattle main card that promises explosive finishes and massive divisional implications. The marquee matchup delivers a fascinating stylistic clash at middleweight, as former champion Israel Adesanya takes on surging powerhouse Joe Pyfer. Adesanya will look to utilize his legendary distance management and elite kickboxing to neutralize Pyfer’s devastating, one-punch knockout power. If Pyfer can cut off the cage and land flush, we could see a monumental changing of the guard. However, “The Last Stylebender” remains a master at outmaneuvering and punishing aggressive brawlers.
The stakes remain sky-high in the co-main event, where former flyweight queen Alexa Grasso meets Maycee Barber in a pivotal 125-pound title eliminator. Grasso’s crisp, technical boxing will be severely tested by Barber’s relentless forward pressure and raw physicality.
The rest of the main card guarantees pure chaos. Veteran grappler Michael Chiesa locks horns with wild brawler Niko Price in the last and final fight of Chiesa’s UFC career. Meanwhile, local fan favorite Terrance McKinney looks to secure another lightning-fast finish against the gritty Kyle Nelson at lightweight. Rounding out the action, Julian Erosa welcomes Lerryan Douglas in a featherweight scrap, and highly touted middleweights Mansur Abdul-Malik and Yousri Belgaroui aim to leave a lasting impression.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Seattle.
Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer
HayJive – Joe Pyfer
- “More to like with the younger fighter here. Adesanya looks a step slower, and I don’t trust him to turn back the clock. Pyfer’s danger is real, and unless Izzy fights a perfect fight, this is a tough matchup. I’ll side with the underdog.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Joe Pyfer
- “Public is on Izzy heavily, but he’s got to survive a storm early. I can’t trust the durability and speed anymore.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Israel Adesanya
- “5 Round Experience Matters. I believe that Pyfer has the power, though lacks the speed to knockout Adesanya.”
The Fight Analyst – Israel Adesanya
- “We know that Izzy isn’t in his prime anymore, but even so, he is still a very difficult puzzle to deal with. The experience in the championship rounds will matter if Pyfer isn’t dominating on the mat. If it gets past round 3, Izzy will cruise and get either a late finish or the nod on the judge’s scorecards.
Austin Swaim – Joe Pyfer
- “I bet each of Israel Adesanya’s last three opponents against him, and the decline doesn’t end against a massive middleweight with grappling upside like Pyfer. Adesanya’s kryptonite has been both a willingness and inability to fight moving backwards, and Pyfer’s willingness (and ability) to pressure should have him dictating the fight early. I no longer trust the former champ’s durability to survive that, either.”
Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber
HayJive – Maycee Barber
- “Barber has improved since their first fight, while Grasso is on a skid. Barber’s pace, pressure, and physicality should allow her to win minutes and take a decision.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Maycee Barber
- “Barber has grown as a human and fighter since they fought 5 years ago. I think the strength and pressure will get her the win.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Alexa Grasso
- “I think we see a replay of their first fight, something similar with Grasso using more of her 5 Round High-Level Experience.”
The Fight Analyst – Maycee Barber
- “Barber is just rolling at the right time coming into this rematch against Grasso. I thoroughly expect Barber to bully Grasso, utilizing her strength and power to overwhelm her throughout the course of 15 minutes to get the win and put her into title contention.”
Austin Swaim – Maycee Barber
- “Quietly, Alexa Grasso has lost 16 of her last 19 rounds in the cage. Her 54% takedown D — especially against a judo-heavy arsenal like Valentina’s — has been poor. That, plus just brute strength and size, seem to be Maycee Barber’s key advantages to win and put her name in the title picture.”
Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price
HayJive – Michael Chiesa
- “Good spot for Chiesa in what could be his retirement fight. Price looks past his prime, and Chiesa should be able to lean on his grappling and find a finish.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Michael Chiesa
- “Chiesa in his retirement fight infront of his own crowd won’t lose to Price. Price’s durability is in serious question and Chiesa’s grappling will be a problem.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Michael Chiesa
- “Price tends to get a bit too messy, perfect entry for Chiesa’s statement wins in his retirement.”
The Fight Analyst – Michael Chiesa
- “There’s no way Chiesa is losing his retirement fight in front of his home crowd against another fighter who’s most likely in his own retirement fight himself.”
Austin Swaim – Michael Chiesa
- “In 2023, Niko Price faced a retiring Robbie Lawler and handed Lawler his first knockdown in 7 years. Whether it was a dive or just Price’s disintegrating chin, Chiesa might score his first UFC knockout for his last fight. Niko is quietly sort of tough to submit, surviving 6 of his last 7 attempts faced. Don’t bet “minus money” props in this volatile fight.”
Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas
HayJive – Lerryan Douglas
- “Douglas has serious KO upside, especially against Erosa’s pressure style. The debut is a concern, but for a pure pick, I’ll take the power and go with Douglas.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Lerryan Douglas
- “Douglas hits extremely hard which has been Erosa’s issue in the past. I think Douglas finds the chin again here.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Lerryan Douglas
- “Athleticism, momentum, youth matters, especially in fights like these.”
The Fight Analyst – Lerryan Douglas
- “Douglas is a very solid prospect coming into his UFC debut. This fight should be an absolute barnburner early on where Douglas will land on Erosa’s chin early and often, putting him away inside two rounds to make a statement Saturday night.”
Austin Swaim – Lerryan Douglas
- “Erosa has been put out five times in UFC, but the last of which came in April 2023, and he hasn’t faced a fighter with a knockdown rate higher than 0.50% since that fight. At 36, his chin is still ultimately a liability I can’t see him overcoming against Douglas’ crazy power and tendency to throw everything behind his shots.”
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Yousri Belgaroui
HayJive – Yousri Belgaroui
- “Belgaroui is the cleaner striker and should have the edge on the feet. I don’t trust Abdul-Malik to put together a clean performance, and Belgaroui’s takedown defense should hold up.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Mansur Abdul-Malik
- “Mansur is far more athletic than Yousri’s last opponent. Mansur is also getting better and better with the experience he’s been given. I think the public gets upset once again here.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mansur Abdul-Malik
- “I think Belgaouri is a great kickboxer, though Abdul-Malik has the ability to take it down and end it.”
The Fight Analyst – Yousri Belgaroui
- “This is a gigantic (pun intended) step up in competition for Abdul-Malik. While Abdul-Malik has power on his side and is improving in wrestling, Belgaroui is the much more polished and technical striker with much-improved defensive grappling. Belgaroui held his own against much better grapplers, so as long as Belgaroui can get back to his feet and keep the fight standing, he should be able to outstrike Abdul-Malik over the course of 15 minutes.”
Austin Swaim – Yousri Belgaroui
- “I was shocked at Belgaroui’s improvement from the Contender Series, but that’s not dissimilar from how much Alex Pereira improved at Glover Teixeira’s gym in his first few UFC fights. The Tunisian’s length, power, and evolved takedown D are major issues for Abdul-Malik, who struggled with Nick Klein and Cody Brundage.”
Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson
HayJive – Kyle Nelson
- “McKinney is dangerous early, but fades. If Nelson survives round one, I trust him to take over late and get it done.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Terrance McKinney
- “McKinney has what it takes to stop Nelson very quickly. He’s in trouble if he doesn’t, but it feels like he gets it done in front of his home crowd.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kyle Nelson
- “Wild fight, though Nelson is the slightly less wild and slightly more calculated fighter.”
The Fight Analyst – Terrance McKinney
- “This should be a fun fight for however long it lasts. It’s up to McKinney landing first before Nelson lands on him, and if he does, he gets the knockout in round 1.”
Austin Swaim – Terrance McKinney
- “To me, oddsmakers positioning McKinney as such a heavy favorite has everything to do with Kyle Nelson’s historical ability to be the “nail”. He’s been finished four times in UFC, and McKinney is one of the most renown “hammers” inside the first few minutes. I think he cleans out Nelson early.”
🔍 Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of additional coverage.
💰 Want to get in on the action? Visit homeoffight.com/picks to tail all of the Home of Fight expert’s picks & bets each week!
