Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Shanghai
This Saturday, UFC returns to Mainland China with UFC Shanghai, headlined by a thrilling light heavyweight clash between Johnny Walker and Zhang Mingyang at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium. This marks the UFC’s second visit to Shanghai since 2017 and the first post-pandemic event on Chinese soil. Walker (#12 ranked) is a dynamic striker known for his explosive finishes and unorthodox fighting style, eager to regain momentum in the division. Zhang Mingyang (#14) is a rising Chinese contender with powerful striking and finishing ability, making this a high-stakes clash for light heavyweight rankings.
The co-main event features elite featherweights Brian Ortega (#7) and Aljamain Sterling (#9). Ortega, a relentless grappler with slick jiu-jitsu, squares off against Sterling, an elusive striker and former bantamweight champ stepping up in weight, promising a compelling stylistic battle.
Other notable bouts include heavyweight prospect Sergei Pavlovich facing Waldo Cortes-Acosta, and an intriguing flyweight showdown with hometown favorite Sumudaerji taking on Kevin Borjas. The card showcases both established contenders and emerging talent, reflecting UFC’s commitment to growing MMA in the Asia-Pacific region.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Shanghai.
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang
- HayJive – Mingyang Zhang
“Walker’s chin might be one of the biggest liabilities in the UFC. Zhang should find a KO here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Zhang Mingyang
“The power will be the difference here. It’s only a matter of time before the big shot lands.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Johnny Walker
“This is a long-shot, but the odds could make it worth it. Zhang’s dangerous though he hasn’t faced much solid opposition, other than Anthony Smith. I can see grappling being a primary strategy of Walker in this fight.”
- Corrie – Zhang Mingyang
“As a Mingyang believer in the sense that the UFC just keeps giving him very winnable matchups… We’re sticking with him again!! Walker’s durability is just too shaky at this point, and Zhang’s a proven round-one KO machine who throws volume like crazy so if there was ever a matchup built for him, it’s this one, unless Walker shocks the world with his grappling and if that’s the case, God bless us all.”
- The Fight Analyst – Zhang Mingyang
“Zhang is the Chinese star the UFC was hoping to find. His power is undeniable and when he connects on Walker’s chin this weekend he’s sending him back to the shadow realm for the third straigh time.”
Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling
- HayJive – Aljamain Sterling
“Ortega is starting to look more and more washed and Aljo looks like he can still compete with the best. Give me Aljo to win a clear decision.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Aljamain Sterling
“Aljo is solid at 145lb. His grappling should offset the submission threat and I believe his control will win him this fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Aljamain Sterling
“This fight will be closer than it looks. While Ortega is dangerous, I can see this being a primarily striking battle going into the later rounds where Sterling’s unorthodox striking makes it close.”
- Corrie – Aljamain Sterling
“I’m siding with Aljo in this one I mean both guys have never been subbed but this is a grappler’s sweet spot on this card, so I expect it to go long and probably hit the scorecards. Ortega’s always dangerous when given the opportunity, but Sterling’s pace, wrestling, and ability to win minutes give him the edge in what should be a competitive fight. Funkmaster season baby, pass me all the rum.”
- The Fight Analyst – Aljamain Sterling
“This is a dicey fight for Sterling but one he can certainly win. If his BJJ defense is up to par he should be able to drown Ortega over the course of five rounds with his relentless grappling pace to get the nod on the judge’s scorecards.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- HayJive – Sergei Pavlovich
“Waldo has been on a roll but this is a huge step up in competition. Give me Pavlovich by KO or Dec.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Sergei Pavlovich
“Pavlovich is better than Waldo’s last opponent and has the boxing to make this close on the feet. If he mixes in wrestling he should win this one.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Sergei Pavlovich
“While Pavlovich hasn’t looked the best in his recent fights, he’s had to fight Aspinall, Volkov and won, though in boring fashion Jairzinho. Waldo’s run hasn’t given me much certainty. He arguably lost to Spivac in his first jump up in competition. Pavlovich has made a career of knocking out these less than elite heavyweights and I think that’s the case here.”
- Corrie – Sergei Pavlovich
“I usually like Waldo, but he’s been feasting on softer matchups and Sergei is a whole different level. Pavlovich has the reach, the power, and even the better wrestling stats, plus he’s only dropped fights to the absolute elite and I don’t think Waldo’s jab will save him here against Sergei’s 6” reach advantage… Gotta go Sergei.”
- The Fight Analyst – Sergei Pavlovich
“It would be great to see Pavlovich get back to his knockout ways. He gets an opponent that’s willing to hang in there and trade on the feet. Being that Pavlovich posseses more tools, the reach advantage, and the knockout power to put Cortes-Acosta out to extend his winning streak to two in a row.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas
- HayJive – Kevin Borjas
“This should be a close fight, but I’m going to lean with the power of Borjas here. He’ll likely get outlanded, but his strikes should hold more impact and create more damage.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Sumudaerji
“I love Su’s skills and think he’s going to be a great striker. He struggles with grappling but Borjas will want to strike as well.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kevin Borjas
“Borjas is dynamic and dangerous on the feet, though at times has struggled with opposition. Sumadaerji has lost 7 times, 6 of them being by SUB. I can see a comfortable win for Borjas here.”
- Corrie – Sumudaerji
“I’m not confident enough in Borjas’ wrestling to back him as a dog, especially since this probably plays out as a striking match and both guys can throw down but Sumudaerji doesn’t have much of a ground game, so if Borjas does have the wrestling and IQ to use it, that’s his path if he starts losing on the feet. Borjas has struggled with southpaws and tends to eat way more than he lands but in all honesty, I see this one going the distance and being competitive, but I’ll lean Su Mudaerji.”
- The Fight Analyst – Sumudaerji
“Finally a favorable matchup for Sumudaerji to showcase his striking skills. Borjas looked good in his last fight against Rodriguez, but he will struggle mightily against a high-level striker like Sumudaerji. Sumudaerji has yet to be outstruck in his UFC career, by the numbers, and a one-note boxer is not going to be the first one to do it. Also, let’s not forget the fact that he’s at a size disadvantage (3” height/4” reach), speed disadvantage, and this fight is in a 30 foot octagon in front of his home crowd. The cards are stacked up against Borjas as Sumudaerji continues his winning ways this weekend.”
Marcel Dorff | X
Taiyilake Nueraji vs. Keifer Crosbie
- HayJive – Taiyilake Nueraji
“NUERAJI is a fun addition to the roster, and it looks like the UFC wants him to succeed in his Debut. Crosbie is dangerous with his boxing, but It’s questionable if he should be on the roster.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Taiyilake Nueraji
“Kiefer doesn’t seem like a UFC level fighter, and his opponent might be green but the power should be the difference here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Taiyilake Nueraji
“Crosbie is a solid striker but this is a set narrative play for Nueraji. Dangerous striker, high accuracy and great power, though tread carefully as he hasn’t defeated a lof of UFC level opposition.”
- Corrie – Taiyilake Nueraji
“Nueraji should run through him, but this feels like the kind of matchup where Crosbie’s fast, heavy hands could be live early, perfect spot to test a super hyped debuting prospect so definitely keep an eye out for that… That said, I really think Nueraji has the full skill set, plus he’s coming in with big advantages in height, reach, and age over Crosbie, so I’ll say Nueraji will win but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t eyeballing a Crsobie upset.”
- The Fight Analyst – Taiyilake Nueraji
“Taiyilake Nueraji’s superior grappling and relentless pressure will likely overwhelm Keifer Crosbie, who tends to struggle against aggressive wrestlers. Additionally, Nueraji’s cardio and effective ground control should allow him to dictate the pace and secure a decision victory.”
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