Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 105

UFC Vegas 105 Expert Picks

This Saturday, April 5, the UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 105, headlined by a pivotal featherweight clash between veteran knockout artist Josh Emmett and undefeated rising star Lerone Murphy. With both fighters aiming to climb the rankings in the stacked 145-pound division, this main event promises fireworks and high stakes.

Josh Emmett (19-4) enters the Octagon looking to build on his December 2023 knockout victory over Bryce Mitchell, a performance that earned him his fifth bonus in his last seven fights. The 40-year-old has faced adversity, including losses to Yair Rodriguez and Ilia Topuria, but his devastating power remains a constant threat. Ranked No. 8 in the division, Emmett hopes to prove he still belongs among the elite.

Lerone Murphy (15-0-1), ranked No. 10, is one of England’s brightest MMA talents. Known for his technical striking and composure under pressure, Murphy is undefeated in his professional career and eager to establish himself as a serious title contender. With youth and momentum on his side, he’ll look to neutralize Emmett’s power and showcase his precision.

The co-main event pits grappling specialist Pat Sabatini against dangerous striker Joanderson Brito in another featherweight bout. Sabatini rebounded from a loss with a first-round finish of Jonathan Pearce, while Brito boasts knockout power and solid takedown defense. Their clash promises an exciting contrast of styles.

With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 105!

Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy

• HayJive – Lerone Murphy

“Emmett could find the kill shot, but if he doesn’t Murphy should be able to win this by late finish or decision. Murphy is the much more well-rounded fighter here.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Lerone Murphy

“Josh Emmett has big power, but outside of KO’ing Bryce he’s had trouble finding KO’s in recent years. Mix that in with being 40, Murphy improving and being so technically sound, I think Murphy grinds his way to a win.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Josh Emmett

“Let’s just say, Murphy hasn’t impressed me much in his last few bouts. He has been tagged before and survived, but against Emmet, who is great at cutting range, especially in a smaller, cage, it is worth the shot in these odds.”

• Corrie – Josh Emmett

“Josh Emmett at +270 felt crazy to me. He is, quite literally, the hardest hitter at 145 and he’s only been out a little over a year so his time off does not necessarily concern me considering he never stopped consistently training… And for Christ’s sake this is the only guy to ever be able to stand for 25 full minutes with Topuria so I mean, 25 minutes to land one on Lerone at +500 right now? Yeah, it’s dog or pass here for me. Emmett moneyline and by (T)KO.”

• The Fight Analyst – Lerone Murphy

“This main event should be a banger, and while it’s great to see Josh Emmett back in there, I think time has certainly passed him by. Murphy is the bigger, stronger, fresher, more athletic, and more technical fighter in this matchup. However, Emmett still has that one-hitter-quitter, which is an equalizer, but as long as Murphy can avoid that kill shot, he should be the one winning minutes on the feet en route to his 16th career victory.”

Joanderson Brito vs. Pat Sabatini

• HayJive – Joanderson Brito

“I’m not gonna rule out Sabatini having grappling success here, but I have to take Brito here. Brito should be able to use his physicality to bully Sabatini and put him away.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Joanderson Brito

“Brito is so physical, explosive, and hits like a truck which I think is Sabatini’s kryptonite. If Pat can’t wrestle, control, and look for subs I believe Brito will get his chances at a finish.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Joanderson Brito

“While Brito can be taken down and controlled at moments, this fight isn’t really competitive on the feet and when compared to their submission skills. As long as this fight is standing, Sabatini is in trouble.”

• Corrie – Joanderson Brito

“Brito just has more ways to win here and pushes the pace nonstop. I like Sabatini’s activity and grappling, especially past the 1.5 mark, but I’m taking Brito by (T)KO early. His last two losses were to tall, lanky strikers, not evenly matched wrestlers like Sabatini, with the most recent being a split decision to William Gomis. I’ll sprinkle Brito by (T)KO and possibly under 1.5.”

• The Fight Analyst – Pat Sabatini

“This is a fantastic co-main event between two surging featherweights. Joanderson Brito looked flat against William Gomis, which gives me some pause in this matchup. While Gomis isn’t Pat Sabatini, he can still put a pace on Brito that could stifle his forward aggression. If Sabatini can avoid getting knocked into the shadow realm, he can utilize his grappling to neutralize the power of Brito. From there, he can either get the submission or ride the position for the majority of the fight to get the nod on the scorecards.”

Cortavious Romious vs. Chang Ho Lee

• HayJive – Chang Ho Lee

“Neither guy is very impressive to me, but I favor Lee in this matchup purely based on cardio and physicality. Romious is explosive early but I don’t think he can maintain it for 15 minutes.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Cortavious Romious

“His opponent ChangHo Lee is coming off a split decision win that was a bit uninspiring. Romious is explosive, decent power, but can wrestle for 3 rounds and has good jiu jitsu.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Chang Ho Lee

“Romious leaves too many openings at times, and against a focused Lee, that means problems.”

• Corrie – Chang Ho Lee

“Cortavious worries me, his regional fights were fun to watch and were quick, but his second Contender Series fight and debut against Bolaños made him look shaky at this level. The team change might help, but I’m still not sold. On the other hand, Chang Ho Lee hasn’t impressed me either, and I usually avoid betting on Road to UFC guys, but his pace and height could give him an edge. I’m staying out of this fight but I honestly think it goes to the judges and that Chang Ho Lee takes it.”

• The Fight Analyst – Cortavious Romious

“This fight I am mainly up in the air about. Chang Ho Lee is a one-note grappler with striking that needs work, while Cortavious Romious has submission chops and power on the feet, but he is still a bit green everywhere. I am taking Romious as the dog mainly because Lee has never fought on this side of the world before, and while he’s been practicing the time change in South Korea, it’s different when you are here in the States. Expect Romious to scramble out of bad positions, get to his feet, and win minutes there to get his hand raised.”

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday

• HayJive – Kennedy Nzechukwu

“I don’t put too much stock into Nzechukwu’s 2 wins at heavyweight, but I do think he’s better than Buday. He should be able to clearly outstrike Buday on the feet and I could see a late finish.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Kennedy Nzechukwu

“Kennedy has momentum moving up to heavyweight where he’s shown to be fast, more dynamic, and the power has remained up a weight class. He will be faster, more explosive, and should take care of Buday.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Martin Buday

“Buday has only really lost to the best heavyweight of all time in Shamil Gaziev. We have seen Kennedy only against the bottom barrel of heavyweights at the moment and we have seen him exposed for lack of fight IQ.”

• Corrie – Kennedy Nzechukwu

“Kennedy by (T)KO all day, there’s genuinley no other way this goes. Unless he shows up Saturday on crutches, Buday’s taking a nap. Kennedy’s faced way better competition, has far more experience and has won 71% of the time by (T)KO mostly in the first two rounds, whereas Buday is just all over the place. Ultimately… The skill gap here is massive and I cannot stress that enough.”

• The Fight Analyst – Kennedy Nzechukwu

“Kennedy Nzechukwu has found his calling in the heavyweight division. He has the size, speed, and power to make a legitimate run in the division. Nzechukwu has the majority of the advantages over Buday in this matchup, and as long as he doesn’t get caught in the clinch, where Buday would just control him, he should just pick Buday apart at range to a wide victory.”

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Brad Tavares

• HayJive – Gerald Meerschaert

“I love me some GM3 and I’m not gonna run away from him here. Tavares looks more aged at this point than GM3, and if there’s any finish in this one it’s likely a GM3 Sub.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Brad Tavares

“Brad’s striking will be better, but the key here will be his 80% takedown defense he’s displayed across a long career. If he stuffs takedowns and keeps it standing I see him winning this fight fairly easy.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Gerald Meerschaert

“This is the fight for GM3 to win. He’s got finishing abilities but Tavares has only really only been finished on the feet, showing good recovery on the ground. GM3 can implement a wrestling gameplan and drag this into deep waters.”

• Corrie – Gerald Meerschaert

“I’ve gone back and forth on this one a bit but I’ve always thought of GM3 as being in that sort of gatekeeper position here… I also think that Brad Tavares being 1-4 in his last 5 fights makes me uncomfortable taking him at this time in his career against someone who is constantly being overlooked as the underdog, but if it stays ITD I could see GM3 getting the finish, if it goes to decision I could see Tavares winning a greasy split decision. My pick to win right now is still GM3, might look into the point spread also.”

• The Fight Analyst – Brad Tavares

“Two middleweight veterans get after it on the main card. Both certainly have seen better days, and it’s hard to put trust in either one of these two, but this is a matchup where Brad Tavares normally excels. While Gerald Meerschaert is one of the best submission artists in UFC middleweight history, Tavares has never been subbed before and has shown he has great takedown defense. Expect Tavares to sprawl and brawl his way to victory in his 26th UFC bout.”

Robert Valentin vs. Torrez Finney

• HayJive – Robert Valentin

“I’m not sold on Finney as a long term talent in the UFC so I’ll be looking to fade him regularly. Finney can win here by getting takedowns, but Valentin has solid Jiu Jitsu and dangerous striking so I’ll take a shot on Valentin as the dog.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Robert Valentin

“I’m not sold on Finney just yet. He will need a lot of control here, and Valentin has a solid ground game. If this plays out on the feet, I also believe Valentin will hold the advantage and do some damage.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Robert Valentin

“Valentin is more athletic, has huge finishing instincts, and while he can get tagged and hurt, he has shown the ability to recover, whereas Finney can gas out late.”

• Corrie – Torrez Finney

“Valentin’s looking to bounce back from his debut loss, but Finney’s just built different, he can crack him, wrestle out of anything, and keep picking him up and slamming him to the mat nonstop. The height difference will look wild, but Finney’s reach and how he handled 6’2” Cam Rowston on the Contender Series prove it doesn’t matter as much as it would for others… and Valentin’s all about submissions, but I don’t see that playing out with someone built the way the Finney is. Gotta stick with the favorite by (T)KO.”

• The Fight Analyst – Torrez Finney

“Fan-favorite Torrez Finney finally makes long-awaited UFC debut, and it feels like it’s a good matchup for him. While Valentin is dangerous everywhere, his wild style gets him into bad positions, which will happen here. Also, it will be tough for Valentin to land a choke on Finney, seeing as his neck is non-existent. Expect Finney to slam and ground-and-pound Valentin into oblivion to get his first UFC victory.”

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