Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 106

Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 106

UFC Vegas 106 returns to the UFC Apex this Saturday, May 17, with a compelling welterweight main event as former title challenger Gilbert Burns faces undefeated Ecuadorian prospect Michael Morales. Burns, ranked No. 8 at welterweight, is eager to halt a three-fight skid and reassert his place among the division’s elite. At 38, the Brazilian’s experience and grappling acumen will be tested by Morales, who boasts a perfect 17-0 record and is coming off a statement first-round knockout over Neil Magny. For Morales, this is a pivotal opportunity to break into the top 10 and prove he’s ready for the division’s toughest names.

The co-main event features fan-favorite Paul Craig, also looking to snap a losing streak, as he takes on rising Brazilian Rodolfo Bellato in a light heavyweight clash. Elsewhere on the main card, Sodiq Yusuff looks to rebound from back-to-back losses against surging prospect Mairon Santos in a high-stakes lightweight bout, while middleweights Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev, and featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa, round out the televised portion.

With veterans fighting for relevance and prospects eyeing breakout moments, UFC Vegas 106 promises intrigue and potential shakeups across multiple divisions.With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 106.

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

• HayJive – Michael Morales

“The odds are absolutely insane in this fight, but from a pure pick perspective I do believe Morales should the favorite here. He’s young and improving, while already having some freak physicality advantages in almost every matchup he has. I’ll take Morales for a pick, but I wouldn’t not bet on him at the odds.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Michael Morales

“I’ll be screaming for Burns, but I’ve got to go with my gut and side with youth, speed, power, and momentum.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Gilbert Burns

“I understand this is a bias pick, however there are legitimate reasons to bet on Gilbert, who’s losses have aged exceptionally well, and has showed out in nearly all out of these occasions. I could see a scenario where he gets through the initial rounds and finds a more fatigued and tired Morales.”

• Corrie –  Michael Morales

“Morales has the size, youth, and momentum advantage, and given his takedown defense, I think he’ll be able to avoid Burns’ submission attempts. Even though it’s a step up in competition, I still think he can pass this test, especially considering he just ran through Neil Magny. (I know Gilbert Burns is legit, but Morales is a demon).”

• The Fight Analyst – Gilbert Burns

“How is a guy that’s best win is Neil Magny and has gone the distance with both Jake Matthews and Max Griffin such a massive favorite over someone as credentialed as Gilbert Burns. I know MMA math doesn’t work when breaking down fights, but it’s hard to ignore. However, Morales is very skilled in all aspects of MMA and has been improving as well. But Burns has still been there, done that, and can match Morales on the feet and on the mat. If Burns can weather the early storm and not get clipped, he can drag him into deep waters and give the undefeated prospect a vet lesson.”

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

• HayJive – Rodolfo Bellato

“Craig may have one more trick up his sleeve, but Bellato should be able to outstrike him on the feet. Bellato is very hittable, but he’s also very tough and should be able to overwhelm Craig on the feet.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Rodolfo Bellato

“This line is wild, but Bellato does have a bit of power, the ability to make it a dog fight, and hopefully the IQ to that stay on the feet where he should throw more volume, even hurting Craig at times.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Paul Craig

“This is a longshot, but the odds are funky in this one. If this goes to the ground, which it very well could, seen on how wild Bellato fights, Craig has the advantage to do something unexpected.”

• Corrie – Paul Craig

“Rodolfo Bellato should not be a -535 favorite against anyone. Are we just ignoring how he looked against Jimmy Crute back in February? Paul Craig is back at light heavyweight here, which could definitely work in his favor and Bellato’s only UFC win is over Ihor, who’s 2-6 in the promotion with five of those losses coming by finish. So this is an immediate dog-or-pass spot for me, especially with how sharp Craig has looked in the footage coming out of his camp, and let’s be real, Bellato feels like exactly the type of guy who would accidentally get caught in anarm triangle.”

• The Fight Analyst – Paul Craig

“This is purely based on the odds at hand. There is no way that Bellato should be this big of a favorite against any other human being. We know that Craig has lost three straight, but to very good competition. Craig still has power on the feet, and he’s by far the best submission grappler Bellato has faced, making him a dangerous opponent. If Craig doesn’t get sent to the shadow realm in round one, there’s a chance he can pull something out in rounds two or three to save his job.”

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

• HayJive – Mairon Santos

“This is a good test for Santos to see if his skillset can compete with a tough and dangerous veteran. I’m gonna pick Santos here as I think he’s a better striker at range both offensively and defensively. However, if Yusuff can overwhelm the young prospect things could get interesting.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Sodiq Yusuff

“Sodiq is a public underdog but he’s also got great power, more experience, and a grappling edge. Santos will be more technical on the feet, but we just saw how you can take away Santos skill in a fight and give yourself a chance to win.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mairon Santos

“Both men at 155 have some questions. I feel Santos is the more dynamic striker, and again momentum means a ton in this sport, now fighting his second fight in 2025.”

• Corrie – Sodiq Yusuff

“Sodiq Yusuff is the more proven fighter, with better striking volume and experience against higher-level competition and I still think Francis Marshall won that fight over Mairon Santos… I’ll take the proven fighter plus money here all day.”

• The Fight Analyst – Mairon Santos

“I am still a bit salty about losing my Francis Marshall wager against Santos. However, Santos has shown great Muay Thai striking and footwork that’s going to give Yusuff problems on the feet. Also, Yusuff doesn’t fight at a high pace, which will allow Santos to fight his fight where he should be able to mix up the attacks on the feet, punishing Yusuff as he comes in range to pick him apart for the wide decision victory.” 

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stolzfus

• HayJive – Nursulton Ruziboev

“Ruziboev is almost always early KO or bust, but he has been in the US for a couple years now so we can hope to see his skillset evolving. I think he’s can find the chin early.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Nursulton Ruziboev

“Ruziboev is way bigger than Dustin, is a sniper on the outside with power, and has over 20 subs on his record. Wherever this fight goes Dustin will be in danger.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Nursulton Ruziboev

“This is a classic fight for Ruziboev, lower level middleweights that don’t mind being involved in kill or be killed fights in early rounds, which is what Ruziboev thrives in.”

• Corrie – Nursulton Ruziboev

“Ruziboev is huge here… He’s got good finishing power and I’m not overly confident in Dustin’s cardio and durability in this spot if I’m being honest. So as long as Ruziboev doesn’t get taken down early I’ll say he wins”

• The Fight Analyst – Nursulton Ruziboev

“While Ruziboev isn’t a world beater, this is a very favorable matchup for him against Stoltzfus. Stoltzfus is very chinny and he’s going to have a hard time getting the fight to the mat. I thoroughly expect Ruziboev to get him out of there inside two rounds to keep his winning streak alive.”

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

• HayJive – Julian Erosa

“My favorite fight on the entire card. Erosa always comes to scrap and if his chin holds up I think he can take this one. This is Costa’s 3rd fight in a 4 month span, which can either work well or could be detrimental. Hard to pick a winner but I’ll take Erosa.”

• Nolan (TheParlay) – Melquizael Costa

“Costa is riding momentum, is very active, and should be able to match Erosa everywhere. The kicks will play a part early, which could lead to Erosa dropping his hands more, and Costa finding big significant strikes.”

• JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Melquizael Costa

“I feel Costa’s Muay-Thai is underrated and he can do well in grappling exchanges too. This is his third fight in 2025 and he’s got momentum in his side.”

• Corrie – Melquizael Costa

“Costa’s the younger, hungrier guy here, and I trust his durability more than Erosa’s, who I worry is just too chinny. Erosa is obviously dangerous early, especially riding a three-fight win streak, but he hasn’t seen a second round in three years and ultimately, I trust Costa more if this fight goes deep too.”

• The Fight Analyst – Melquizael Costa

“Do not fall into the trap of Julian Erosa after decimating a literal punching bag in Darren Elkins. Costa has shown he can mix it up well on the feet and the mat. His thunderous kicks are lightning quick, which will give Erosa some pause trying to make this fight into a brawl, and if the fight hits the mat, his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt will come in handy. Costa goes in there, mixes up his attacks, potentially getting Erosa out of there late or getting the nod on the scorecards.”

Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage. Enjoy the fights, let us know how you’ll be watching!